Real Estate Analysis Tool

[Phantomtib]

I’m building a web map application that shows tax assessments for all the houses in Calgary. Anyone know if this data is available to the public? Is this data protected by the privacy act? I’m also looking for other historical data ie; purchase price, sale price, # of occupants, employment, construction/development, etc. This data would be used to analyse trends and would be useful to any RE investor.

Thanks

 

[GarthChapman]

I have been thinking along the same lines for a while and have gathered some data. If you PM me we could look at how to integrate what we each have.

 

[RedlineBrett]

QUOTE (GarthChapman @ Feb 7 2008, 09:27 AM) I have been thinking along the same lines for a while and have gathered some data. If you PM me we could look at how to integrate what we each have.

Garth - we spoke about this at the January event at the round-up center. I have been trying to compile something similar since our talk.

I have the following data from Calgary Economic Development:

- Employment and Unemployment rates going back 20 years
- Total population growth and net migration going back 20 years
- Average household incomes (by income bracket) for 1995 and 2000. The 2006 census data will be available in early may and I think that will complete the data set for the most part.

Any sales and listing stats I can get through my access to the CREB database by using my license as an agent. I have also already compiled averge price and appreciation rates in a seperate study I did in early december.

Rental rates and vacancy rates have been a bit harder to come by - I have CBRE reports.. what would be slick would be historical data from CMHC rental reports but those are $$$$ from what I recall from my investigation two years ago. Maybe someone else has a better idea?

Really, I don`t think this will be complete without the data for incomes for 2006.

Then after we have all the data comes a way to accurately compile it and get something tangible and useful.. a metric for investing if you will.

Thoughts?

 

[Phantomtib]

QUOTE (RedlineBrett @ Feb 7 2008, 11:21 AM) Garth - we spoke about this at the January event at the round-up center. I have been trying to compile something similar since our talk.

I have the following data from Calgary Economic Development:

- Employment and Unemployment rates going back 20 years
- Total population growth and net migration going back 20 years
- Average household incomes (by income bracket) for 1995 and 2000. The 2006 census data will be available in early may and I think that will complete the data set for the most part.

Any sales and listing stats I can get through my access to the CREB database by using my license as an agent. I have also already compiled averge price and appreciation rates in a seperate study I did in early december.

Rental rates and vacancy rates have been a bit harder to come by - I have CBRE reports.. what would be slick would be historical data from CMHC rental reports but those are $$$$ from what I recall from my investigation two years ago. Maybe someone else has a better idea?

Really, I don`t think this will be complete without the data for incomes for 2006.

Then after we have all the data comes a way to accurately compile it and get something tangible and useful.. a metric for investing if you will.

Thoughts?


The idea I had was to analyse areas based on specific demographics ie; income, value, pop. density, employment, etc and also have locations of schools, businesses, transportation etc. This information would then be tied into a spatial mapping software (using postal codes or full street addresses). When you analyse the data you would weigh each dataset a specific value, compare with the other datasets, and then spit out a visual image depicting hot spots or cold spots. I do this kind of work with oil and gas (analysing pipeline proximities, well sites, and giving detailed reports in excel format to various scientists) and I figure this type of analysis would work well with ANY real estate investment company.

I`m looking for any interested people who would advise/invest in a RE investment service that uses maps and tables to project past and future RE market trends. I`m located in Calgary.

Tenzin

 

[RedlineBrett]

QUOTE (Phantomtib @ Feb 7 2008, 11:37 AM) The idea I had was to analyse areas based on specific demographics ie; income, value, pop. density, employment, etc and also have locations of schools, businesses, transportation etc. This information would then be tied into a spatial mapping software (using postal codes or full street addresses). When you analyse the data you would weigh each dataset a specific value, compare with the other datasets, and then spit out a visual image depicting hot spots or cold spots. I do this kind of work with oil and gas (analysing pipeline proximities, well sites, and giving detailed reports in excel format to various scientists) and I figure this type of analysis would work well with ANY real estate investment company.

I`m looking for any interested people who would advise/invest in a RE investment service that uses maps and tables to project past and future RE market trends. I`m located in Calgary.

Tenzin

The problem with going about it that way is that it`s quite hard to peg down a way to properly weight each of the values... It would be very tough to make a "real estate bargain equation" or have something that would point out a certain area as being undervalued etc. Everyone values real estate differently so I think it would be quite tough to standardize something and come up with one number.

Also, while sale price data is relatively easy to get for specific locations (say different neighborhoods in Calgary) it is very tough to get data for net migration, rental rates and income data that is narrowed down that small... you can get it city wide.. but to do it for different neighborhoods would take an awful lot of work.

I used to contour different geological areas for all kinds of stuff - grades, rock type, blastability - you name it, so I am familiar with what you`re trying to do. I would contour the differences between two 3D contours, all kinds of stuff. I did this back when I worked as a mining engineer.

What I think we could make use of though would be the data to show how the fundamentals point to Calgary being a great market... even just to track data and graph it to show consecutive years of strong net migration, increasing incomes and how they relate to sales prices to give potential JVPs additional confidence in what REIN members are offering.

 

[Phantomtib]

Yes it is very hard to have one definite answer to RE investing. If I knew the formula I wouldn`t be here! haha.

The program is not designed to analyze data and spit out one exact location rather; it would help with the analysis process (showing data visually and spatially). For example, if you have a client who wants to start his own Cyber Café, he would have some criteria like: near a high school, a shopping mall, close to transportation, an average of 2 kids per household in a 15km radius, and an average household income of $70,000. Well how are you going to find a place like that? If you had the data available, wouldn’t it be cost/time effective to answer the question with a few clicks of a mouse? This is just for retail. Another example, if you want to buy property in the US and you want to buy in a neighborhood with high density, low/average income, most hit by the sub prime mortgages, and in an area where new businesses have started to move to. With a few clicks of the mouse all that data is analyzed and a map is produced showing areas that best fit your criteria.

Anyways, the hardest part of this project is getting the right data. I can get maps of all of Canada, rivers, roads, neighborhoods, and even postal codes all geo referenced to a map. What I don’t have (and will need supplied) are the economic factors that drive the real estate market. There must be a few common indicators of a booming city.

This is what I was told by a realtor in calgary…
“What affects the real estate market and what kind of data do I need?”
Data: any and all data that is monthly or quarterly and as close as you can get to individual parcel data.
What data affects RE change? Basic regression can give you a clue.
Same for the indicators.
Then you need at least 2-years of data to back test the models...not an easy task.

Can anyone elaborate more on this and explain what he means by this?

People know that Calgary is a booming city and to reassure them that the boom is still going on can be done graphically on excel using any indicators of growth. Everyone has their own idea on what the indicators are before a real estate boom, and this program would show their analysis geographically. The program won’t predict where the next boom is going to take place, but it gives any investor the confidence that the property being purchased is exactly what they want and where they want it.