The World in Spring 2010

[Thomas Beyer]

2010, spring - how does Alberta look like:

a ) the Olympics are over .. and BC and Canada had a fantastic TV coverage !

b ) RV rentals from Calgary to Vancouver and vice versa are THROUGH THE ROOF .. and people driving say: "WOW .. what a great place to live .. so much space .. clean air .. decent prices .. mountains, beaches, oceans, lakes, hiking, skiing .. JOBS .. low unemployment .. no violence or racism or suicide bombers .."

c ) BC based construction worker wonder "where next" .. as many BC based projects are finished .. and, ooh: Alberta and SK have jobs .. let`s go back "east" to AB and SK where the jobs are ..

d) oil @ $150/barrel

e) "royalty review" .. what`s that ?

f ) house prices in Calgary and Edmonton had flattened from 2007 to 2009 due to flattish or low in-migration and start to rise again ... quite a bit actually ..

g ) Can $ and US $ at par .. more or less .. and prices in AZ, FL, HI, GA, TX, start to rise again too ..

h ) banking system is in good shape .. and loans are more plentiful albeit not below 5% .. more like 6%`ish for a decent LTV loan ..

i) you (and Thomas and Don and ...) are 2 years older and have slightly more grey hair ..

j) TSX is over 16,000

k) unemployment in the west is still much lower than in Central Canada

l) the new liberal leader is wondering if he should support yet another minority conservative budget or just abstain .. again ..

m) the new Encana building at over 62 stories opens in Calgary .. the tallest tower west of Toronto .. more spotlights on AB

n) it is still rainy in Prince Rupert .. and the newly hired 12 port terminal employees are wondering .. where is Prince Rupert`s boom ?

o) over 40,000 new immigrants have moved to Alberta to fill many vacant jobs as nurses, welders, restaurant jobs and people are wondering: "where will they all live .. rents are so high .."

p) average 2BR rent is well over $1100 in Edmonton .. $1300 in Calgary .. still lower than Vancouver or Toronto though .. with room to rise ..

As always there are 3 groups: those that make things happen, those that watch things happen, and those that wonder "what just happened" ..

... your thoughts on spring 2010, 2 years from now ??

 

[DonCampbell]

Love it!

 

[Zee1960]

 

[ScottL]

Thomas thank-you for your positive and likely real outlook on spring 2010. Just what I needed. I quite enjoy yor posts and have learned a lot. Always great to see "what`s behind the curtain".

Scott

 

[ssteckler]

2 years hence? As for me, I`m looking 4-5 years ahead when I think we`ll start to see the impact of the pine beetle on the forestry industry in BC. As tragic as it looks, I think those living in the Lower Mainland will start to see increased taxes to replace the stumpage fees lost to the pine beetle while loggers will be starting to move to AB to work in the oilsands or other high paid jobs (such as upgrader construction) to replace their previous income in BC. We`ll see increased in-migration, lower vacancy rates with added upward pressure on rents and real estate values.

Stephen Steckler

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (ssteckler @ Apr 21 2008, 08:42 PM) 2 years hence? As for me, I`m looking 4-5 years ahead when I think we`ll start to see the impact of the pine beetle on the forestry industry in BC. As tragic as it looks, I think those living in the Lower Mainland will start to see increased taxes to replace the stumpage fees lost to the pine beetle while loggers will be starting to move to AB to work in the oilsands or other high paid jobs (such as upgrader construction) to replace their previous income in BC. We`ll see increased in-migration, lower vacancy rates with added upward pressure on rents and real estate values.

Stephen Steckler

right .. some areas of BC won`t be so pretty .. both economically and optically .. but Vancouver area will gain 1,000,000+ people in 20 years .. so about 50,000/year .. and where people go to prices rise usually .. and where they leave: they drop .. so don`t buy in every BC hick town because it is "cheap" ..

more as an FYI or btw: trees are also a VERY expensive construction material .. bamboo for example is stronger and cheaper and grows faster ... so Canadian forests will become what they used to be: forests first .. and only second will they become sources of construction material ..

and also, as an btw 2: BC has booming gas and oil sector below ground .. so that will BY FAR offset stumpage fees eventually !

until they find s.th. better than oil and gas to propel vehicles or planes .. decades or centuries away: hydrogen, helium fusion, solar, thermal, ocean waves ..

 

[RedlineBrett]

Wow excellent work! Thanks for posting!

 

[SamEfford]

Great predictions Thomas.

 

[MONEY]

QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Apr 21 2008, 10:00 PM) until they find s.th. better than oil and gas to propel vehicles or planes .. decades or centuries away: hydrogen, helium fusion, solar, thermal, ocean waves ..
Actually Next Year, 2009 will be the market for the Air-Powered Car.
http://tinyurl.com/2jeuwq

 

[ChrisDavies]

That`s a great piece Thomas!

I`ll add in that the north leg of the Anthony Henday will be completed in Edmonton and several new developments in Fort Saskatchewan will be taking off. They`ll be well underway on the Western Regional bypass, bringing more people to St. Albert, Morinville, and thus to Legal, Redwater, and more of the industrial heartland!

 

[markl]

Great stuff

 

[Candi]

Thank you for your vision and postings, I am learning as much as I can from you and everyone! my mind is saying move to Albeta - My family in BC think I am crazy!

 

[RebeccaBryan]

QUOTE (Candi @ Apr 22 2008, 08:50 AM)
Thank you for your vision and postings, I am learning as much as I can from you and everyone! my mind is saying move to Albeta - My family in BC think I am crazy!




You don't have to move here to enjoy our fruits. Just invest, although, being Saskatchwan grown, you would have a hard time moving me from Alberta.

 

[EdRenkema]

I`m all for investing in AB but first I have to build a base here in ON, recently closed on my second property after joining REIN and the running around, back and forth, renos etc is driving me nuts, not to mention tired, I know-delegate, but first you have to build a team to delegate to and the cash flow to support it. AB looks good for many reasons and in fact I may move there in several yrs.
See you at Calgary Quickstart!

Ed R

 

[joeiannuzzi]

QUOTE (EdRenkema @ Apr 22 2008, 12:20 PM)
See you at Calgary Quickstart!



Ed R




Ed, I will definitely see you at the Calgary Quickstart!

 

[nepoez]

I`ll be at the Calgary Quick Start too! I`m from Vancouver though, so I hope to meet all of you soon!

QUOTE (joeiannuzzi @ Apr 22 2008, 12:27 PM) Ed, I will definitely see you at the Calgary Quickstart!

 

[mortgageman]

Great post as usual Thomas.
I`ll be bold and predict REIN members will have about $3.5 billion worth of property. And given the rise that`s likely to happen after we clear out all this residential inventory currently for sale we`ll be smiling and loving Alberta.... even if it snows in late April.

 

[CandRAnderson]

Thomas, you seem very knowledgeable and I believe I can respect your opinion and trust your honesty. So, if you have any opinion on what we may expect from Prince George, I would very much appreciate your honest and well-thought-out posting on that as well. What do you think we can expect to happen in the next few years in the City of Prince George?
Enthusiastically yours,
C and R Anderson

 

[Mauro]

QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Apr 21 2008, 03:47 PM) 2010, spring - how does Alberta look like:

d) oil @ $150/barrel

... your thoughts on spring 2010, 2 years from now ??


http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080516/issues01.html?.v=1

"Energy: Even without a terror attack on its oil facilities, Mexico`s output is falling sharply and could end as soon as 10 years. Its president is setting an example by fighting a difficult Congress and culture to reverse that. Put simply, Mexico`s state oil company, Pemex, is running out of oil. Its output has plunged 20% in the last three years, an unsustainable drop that could lead to a collapse of the country`s oil industry in a decade, according to Mexico`s oil minister."

Anybody ever heard about "peak oil"? $150/barrel is a steal.

 

[RanjitPlaha]

WOW, you guys are amazing.
This information is absolutely top notch and when you put it in the words you have Thomas, it makes so much sense.