A possible future for oil.

[Thomas Beyer]

http://grist.org/article/renewables-are-poised-to-put-global-fossil-fuel-investment-to-shame/

Note the flat line of oil, gas, coal or hydro. Why don't they drop off ?

They will stay around for decades as we ramp up costly renewables at government dimes amid higher taxes and electricity rates.

I used to have a solar thermal system on my roof in Canmore. Nice. Didn't save much and made little economic sense at the then current (far higher) gas prices.

So, coming back to real estate that means what ? Invest in windy places ? Or avoid places with higher and higher electricity prices ? Or in areas that deliver reliable power sources for decades (like BC, AB, SK) ?

 

[Rickson9]

So, coming back to real estate that means what ? Invest in provinces with job growth like BC and ON ? Or avoid places with rising unemployment, increased credit defaults, higher fossil fuel costs and diminishing investment (like BC, AB, SK) ?

Sure.

And here I thought that you were good at forecasting

Here's another article that you can ignore:

"The oilsands sector cannot grow any further — and may be set to shrink. As a country we should be discussing the implications of this. Instead, we seem determined to ignore it.

"The CBC also unearthed another recent government-commissioned study on the oilsands through access to information. The study, produced by an obscure government organization called Policy Horizons Canada, suggests that fracking’s effect on the global oil market is just the thin edge of the wedge; a second policy/technology trend — decarbonization — will complete the work of driving the oilsands out of business, just as the automobile finished the work bicycles started in killing the horse-and-buggy trade.

"The report also suggests that the cost of renewable energy sources, like solar, is in rapid decline and will soon be cheaper than fossil fuels.

"The real problem for Canada’s energy sector is that fracking, coupled with decarbonization, may be eliminating the need for any oilsands production."

http://ipolitics.ca/2016/06/06/sticking-our-heads-in-the-oilsands/

http://boingboing.net/2016/05/31/canadian-government-thinktank.html

 

[Thomas Beyer]

"The real problem for Canada’s energy sector is that fracking, coupled with decarbonization, may be eliminating the need for any oilsands production."

Close.

Let me amend you final though as to:

The real problem for Canada’s energy sector is that fracking, coupled with decarbonization, may be eliminating the need for any MAJOR NEW MULTI-BILLION oilsands production.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

As demand rises and supply drops amid investment cuts and some countries political instability expect prices T start rising later in 2016 into 2017
http://www.businessinsider.com/expect-oil-prices-to-rise-2016-6

 

[Rickson9]

How Canada is killing the oil sands

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/06/18/how-canada-is-slowly-killing-oil-sands-boom.html

Also some people expect oil prices to fall. What's your point? That the future of oil is unpredictable?

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3166727-expect-sharply-lower-oil-prices-coming-weeks-goldman

Just relax. What will be will be. There's no benefit being a fossil fuel cheerleader. Chill.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

Despite all time high Calgary's retail vacancy among the lowest in North America

http://renx.ca/calgary-retail-vacancy-one-of-lowest-in-n-a/

 

[Brent Shepheard]

The US become a major player in the Oil Markets as a producer when fracking was introduced. They ignore the environmental impact of pumping the chemicals into the earth to release the gas. There are many documentaries on this topic. The cost to extract in the US went down dramatically forcing OPEC to flood the market with oil in an effort to bankrupt US companies. That was the cause originally.

I do see oil trading in a range but not returning to the $100+ a barrel anytime soon.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

The US become a major player in the Oil Markets as a producer when fracking was introduced. They ignore the environmental impact of pumping the chemicals into the earth to release the gas. There are many documentaries on this topic. The cost to extract in the US went down dramatically forcing OPEC to flood the market with oil in an effort to bankrupt US companies. That was the cause originally.

I do see oil trading in a range but not returning to the $100+ a barrel anytime soon.

Far higher oil prices in the future, but new oil sands projects need $90+ which is a few years out:http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...gly-Higher-Oil-Prices-In-The-Near-Future.html

Oil demand worldwide is still rising. Will probably peak at 110-120 Mio barrels a day in the 2020's or 2030's ..