Alberta / Edmonton economic status graphs

PeterM

New Forum Member
REIN Member
I recently send a summary of the recent economic trends in Alberta to some partners of mine. I thought I'd share it on MyReinSpace as well. I'm an investor in Edmonton residential real estate so I periodically keep track of this stuff. What follows is just a collection of graphs mostly grabbed from ATB Financial which has a good economic newsletter. The point here is to add to our awareness of our situation and not to make any firm prediction of the future (which I don't think anyone can do).

These graphs are all for Alberta as a whole, so they only serve as a general backdrop for investments in Edmonton. I always prefer graphs that show a period of time rather than the headlines that get excited about single month increases or decreases. Overall the graphs show a decent but muted recovery from the recent recession which was a bad one.

I'm not sure how the forum will handle the images, so they may have weird sizes on the screen.

The last couple of recessions can be seen here as well as the current slow growth in the Alberta economy. The last recession was actually longer than the one in 2009.

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The Alberta population is still growing but more slowly than in 2013. The inter-provincial migration part (people moving between provinces) turned negative for Alberta in 2015 and 2016 and is now a slightly positive. International migration to Alberta remains solid.




The unemployment rate went from about 4% all the way up to about 9% in the last recession. Now it is at about 6.7%. It is still worse than the Canadian average which is quite a change from the past.



Here is a longer term view of the same Alberta data. The unemployment rate remains higher than it has been historically.

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Perhaps a better way to look at the labour market is to look at the total number of people that are actually working.



Or looking only at the full-time jobs. So there are more-or-less the same number of people working as in 2014, but no growth since then.





The residential vacancy rate went way up in the last recession and is now heading down again. This graph just shows the apartment vacancy rate but gives a general feel for what happened.

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Home prices in Alberta have essentially not gone up at all since 2008. This is a very long flat period. Of course looking at this graph, Alberta hasn't been the best place to be a real estate investor in the last 10 years. But we'll see what this graph looks like 5 years from now. Eventually home prices will be driven by the other economic fundamentals above (GDP, jobs, population growth, etc.)



Finally here is a 50 year long term graph I made based on the all-residential average selling prices from the Edmonton Real Estate Board. This shows the various hot and cold periods in Edmonton real estate prices over the years.

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Michel Lafleur

Frequent Forum Member
REIN Member
Good stat infographics!
I've seen many of these (or similar) in the past, its nice to see a current collection on AB.
Thanks for sharing
 
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