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August 2010 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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Newly hired chief analyst sees brighter days ahead

Spend a couple of hours with John Rose, the city`s new chief economist, and you`ll quickly discover that he`s a big-picture guy with eclectic interests.

Sure, he can yack all day about bread-and-butter topics like GDP, inflation and the latest jobs figures, like any practitioner of the dismal science.

But Rose is interested in more than just data. He spots trends, connects the dots and makes insightful observations about urban branding and development. He zips from topic to topic with the ease of Sidney Crosby weaving through traffic.

One look at Rose`s rich and varied resume explains why.

For more than 25 years he has provided economic analysis, forecasting and consulting advice to a long list of heavyweight clients, from major U.S. media firms like NBC-TV and Tribune Co. to federal and provincial levels of government.

Before moving to Edmonton in May, Rose was director of economics with consulting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers in Toronto. Before that, he worked for IHS Global Insight, Deloitte & Touche and Standard & Poor`s, the giant credit-ratings agency

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National real estate group forecasts 11% slide in listings for Alberta

CALGARY - The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast downward for MLS residential sales activity but elevated its average price forecast at the national level.

The national association of realtors said today that weaker than anticipated sales activity during the crucial spring home buying season in Canada`s four most active provincial markets prompted the revision. "The decline is consistent with the exhaustion of pent-up demand from deferred purchases during the economic recession, and sales having been pulled forward into early 2010 due to changes in mortgage regulations," said CREA.

In Alberta, CREA is predicting total MLS sales of 51,300 this year, down 10.8 per cent from the previous year and a further 3.2 per cent annual decline in 2011 to 49,650 sales. It is forecasting the average MLS sale price this year will increase by 2.5 per cent from 2009 to $349,600 but fall by 0.3 per cent in 2011 to $348,500.

In its previous forecast released in early June, CREA forecast MLS sales of 55,900 this year with an average price of $348,400 and sales of 55,400 in 2011 with an average price of $350,800 in the province.

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Calgary`s housing market continues to cool

CALGARY - Calgary`s housing market continued its summer slowdown in July, although prices appear stable, new figures show.

The Calgary Real Estate Board said Tuesday single family home sales were down 42 per cent from the same period a year ago. Condominium sales were down 44 per cent in the same period.

In July, there were 915 single family home sales, compared to 1,061 in June. The number of condo sales fell 11 per cent to 396 from the previous month.

The average price of a single family home was $464,655, down four per cent from the previous month, but six per cent higher than in July 2009.

The average condo price was $291,168, level with June, but a two per cent increase from a year ago.

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Rents head up, home prices down in Edmonton

EDMONTON — House prices dropped in July as a larger inventory gave buyers more choice, and city landlords are getting set to raise rents as apartment vacancy rates tighten, according to new reports.

Single family homes lost 3.1 per cent, condos 1.5 per cent and duplex/rowhouse prices just under one per cent, according to the Realtors Association of Edmonton.

"The number of homes in the inventory is giving buyers` choice," president Larry Westergard said.

"As a result, many buyers are taking their time, and prices are beginning to soften slightly. At the same time, some sellers who have been standing firm have been pushed to discount their initial list price."

Less than half the active listings over 30 days have had a price reduction, but 93 per cent of July sales sold below list with about 40 per cent having already taken a price reduction, the association said.

Single family homes sold for an average of $378,979 in July, down over June but up 1.5 per cent over last year.

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National real estate group forecasts 11% slide in listings for Alberta

CALGARY - The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast downward for MLS residential sales activity but elevated its average price forecast at the national level.

The national association of realtors said today that weaker than anticipated sales activity during the crucial spring home buying season in Canada`s four most active provincial markets prompted the revision. "The decline is consistent with the exhaustion of pent-up demand from deferred purchases during the economic recession, and sales having been pulled forward into early 2010 due to changes in mortgage regulations," said CREA.

In Alberta, CREA is predicting total MLS sales of 51,300 this year, down 10.8 per cent from the previous year and a further 3.2 per cent annual decline in 2011 to 49,650 sales. It is forecasting the average MLS sale price this year will increase by 2.5 per cent from 2009 to $349,600 but fall by 0.3 per cent in 2011 to $348,500.

In its previous forecast released in early June, CREA forecast MLS sales of 55,900 this year with an average price of $348,400 and sales of 55,400 in 2011 with an average price of $350,800 in the province.

At the national level, sales activity is forecast to reach 459,600 units in 2010, representing an annual decline of 1.2 per cent. CREA is also predicting a 7.3 per cent decline in 2011 to 426,100 units. As for average sale prices, the association sees a 3.5 per cent gain this year to $331,600 followed by a 0.9 per cent decline next year to $328,600.

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Signs of continuing softening in Calgary housing market

CALGARY - Preliminary unofficial MLS data shows Calgary`s housing market continued to soften in July with sales plunging from year-ago levels and the average sale price falling from the previous month.

According to the figures on the website of realtor Mike Fotiou, of First Place Realty, so far this month until Thursday there have been 843 single-family homes sales in the city compared with 1,585 sales for the entire month of July 2009.

In June of this year, there were 1,061 sales.

The month-to-date average sale price so far in July is $464,899, down from June`s $481,964 but up from a year ago at $436,782.

Average single-family home prices peaked in July 2007 at $505,920.

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Our flight to the future has been bumpier than we bargained for

EDMONTON - This can be a humbling job, as I`ve said many times.

It`s easy to make a bad call and look like a schmuck -- especially when it comes to predicting the direction of fickle stock markets.

Fortunately, I`m not unique in this regard. It`s a common affliction among both professional money managers and humble scribblers like moi.

Consider the investment writer at one national newspaper. He recently plugged the shares of tech giant Research In Motion (RIM) when they traded for $70-plus.

"The time to love RIM has arrived," declared the sunny headline above his equally upbeat story. Except it wasn`t.

RIM`s stock promptly tanked. It recently bottomed at $50, and closed Friday at just $59.15 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. With advice like that, I`d rather stick to collecting beer cans, thanks.

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Rigs across Canada forecast to remain steady

EDMONTON — The number of drilling rigs will remain at the previously predicted level, the Petroleum Services Association of Canada said Tuesday in its third-quarter update of its annual drilling activity forecast.

PSAC estimates levels for 2010 will stay at 11,250 wells drilled across Canada, representing a 35-per-cent increase in total wells drilled from 2009`s final tally 2009 of 8,350.

"Exacerbating any potential increase in activity levels is the challenge of finding skilled labour for those companies fortunate enough to be busy," PSAC president Roger Soucy said in a statement.

"Companies forced to shed valuable employees last year are now scrambling to hire them back or find replacements."

On a provincial basis, PSAC is forecasting 7,390 wells will be drilled in Alberta this year, a 27-per-cent increase over final 2009 drilling levels. PSAC expects British Columbia will see 700 wells drilled, up 22 per cent from 2009, and Saskatchewan will see 2,670 wells drilled, up 41 per cent from the 1,892 drilled last year.

PSAC`s update finds positive signs are offset by negative factors

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Rents head up, home prices down in Edmonton

EDMONTON — House prices dropped in July as a larger inventory gave buyers more choice, and city landlords are getting set to raise rents as apartment vacancy rates tighten, according to new reports.

Single family homes lost 3.1 per cent, condos 1.5 per cent and duplex/rowhouse prices just under one per cent, according to the Realtors Association of Edmonton.

"The number of homes in the inventory is giving buyers` choice," president Larry Westergard said.

"As a result, many buyers are taking their time, and prices are beginning to soften slightly. At the same time, some sellers who have been standing firm have been pushed to discount their initial list price."

Less than half the active listings over 30 days have had a price reduction, but 93 per cent of July sales sold below list with about 40 per cent having already taken a price reduction, the association said.

Read the full article here.
 

Ally

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Calgary`s housing market continues to cool

CALGARY - Calgary`s housing market continued its summer slowdown in July, although prices appear stable, new figures show.

The Calgary Real Estate Board said Tuesday single family home sales were down 42 per cent from the same period a year ago. Condominium sales were down 44 per cent in the same period.

In July, there were 915 single family home sales, compared to 1,061 in June. The number of condo sales fell 11 per cent to 396 from the previous month.

The average price of a single family home was $464,655, down four per cent from the previous month, but six per cent higher than in July 2009.

The average condo price was $291,168, level with June, but a two per cent increase from a year ago.

Read the full article here.
 

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Charges laid in $12M Calgary mortgage fraud scheme

CALGARY -- Alberta Law Enforcement Response Teams (ALERT) have laid charges in a $12-million mortgage fraud scheme.

During a two-year investigation, authorities determined there were 22 properties involved in the scheme.

The police probe also uncovered 12 witnesses, people who were recruited to obtain a mortgage.

"The nominees, known as straw buyers, were asked to allow their name to be used to obtain a mortgage and were then told that the accused would take it over in their own names after six months," said Insp. Kevin Forsen of the Alberta Law Enforcement Response Teams (ALERT).

"In exchange for their identities, each straw buyer allegedly received between $3,000 to $5,000. Eventually, the accused walked away from the scheme with a large amount of money, leaving the nominees holding the mortgages."

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Building permits rise more than expected in June

OTTAWA — The value of building permits in Canada jumped more than expected in June, as an increase in non-residential activity offset a decline in residential permits, Statistics Canada said Thursday.

Values rose 6.5 per cent to $6.6 billion during the month. Most economists had expected a gain of 1.8 per cent.

The June figure was up 24.9 per cent from the same month last year, the federal agency said.

In the non-residential sector, permit values rose 23.5 per cent to $3 billion. "This increase was largely attributable to higher commercial and institutional construction intentions in Ontario and higher commercial construction intentions in Alberta," the agency said.

Residential permits, meanwhile, fell 4.5 per cent to $3.6 billion in June, due to a decline in single-family intentions. It was the third straight monthly decline for the sector.

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Penn West to accelerate Peace River oilsands

Fuelled by Chinese partnership money, Penn West Energy Trust will invest $70 million to $100 million over the next 12 months to accelerate its Peace River oilsands development.

Dave Middleton, executive vice-president of corporate development, said Thursday the company will further evaluate its land base, now producing about 2,500 barrels per day from about 50 cold-flow horizontal wells, through more than 50 stratographic test wells.

"Only about one in five sections has been evaluated for the oilsands in place ... about 60 per cent of the wells we`re drilling are going to be looking for primary opportunities," he said during a conference call to discuss Penn West`s second-quarter results.

China Investment Corp. is buying a 45 per cent stake in the oilsands operations for $817 million. It is also spending $435 million to take a five per cent equity stake in the trust itself.

A $312 million cash payment upon closing in June helped Penn West cut its debt by $327 million, the company noted in its second-quarter report.

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U.S. group backpedals on `Rethink Alberta` anit-oilsands campaign

CALGARY — The Alberta government and energy sector are claiming a rare public relations victory, after the group leading an anti-oilsands campaign said its advertising contained inaccurate information and will be corrected.

Corporate Ethics International, the San Francisco-based environmental organization that launched a billboard and online campaign this week attacking the oilsands and urging Americans not to visit Alberta, admitted its video overstated the size of the resource and its potential ecological damage.

The group blamed the misinformation on an "editing error" in the online video, explaining the mistake was fixed, the video re-posted to its website and that the ad blitz will continue undeterred.

Corporate Ethics stands by the rest of the information in its campaign and won`t axe any of its "Rethink Alberta" advertising, despite growing public backlash from Albertans.

"There are quite a few people who`ve expressed anger. There`s also a lot of support," said Kenny Bruno, campaign director for Corporate Ethics. "We don`t see this campaign as Americans versus Canadians or versus Albertans. We see that we`re all in this together."

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Freeze chills Edmonton job numbers

EDMONTON — A freeze on public-sector hiring may be a key reason Edmonton`s unemployment rate is higher than the rest of the province, says Alberta Employment and Immigration Minister Thomas Lukaszuk.

"Many of Edmonton`s residents are either directly or indirectly employed by government. All levels of government are still in a position where we have, effectively, hiring freezes," Lukaszuk said Friday.

"But let`s be clear: We are not looking to, nor should we be looking to, government to be the body that creates employment by way of directly hiring individuals.

"Government`s role is to create a climate that is conducive to (the) private sector creating jobs, and not government hiring individuals just to combat unemployment directly."

According to labour force statistics issued Friday, the Edmonton region`s seasonally adjusted unemployment was 6.9 per cent in July 2010 compared to 7.2 per cent in July 2009.

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Edmonton developer gets grant for eco-minded affordable-housing project

EDMONTON — A local developer has received a federal grant to put toward an affordable-housing complex in Edmonton that creates as much energy as it uses.

The Communitas Group, which is in the research phase of the project, received $481,000 in funds this week for their plan to build a 220-suite complex at 129th Avenue and Fort Road.

"The idea is to create sustainability, not just environmentally, but economically and community-wise as well," said Brian Scott, director of research and marketing for Communitas. "The idea is to build a community where the energy consumed is 100 per cent off-set by the energy it creates, but is still affordable. The challenge isn`t with the technology, but how much money you need to throw at it."

The grant money will be used to research the Station Pointe project, a build-up that is expected to last 12 to 18 months.

The city cleaned up the site before it invited developers to pitch ideas for the location. Later, the Communitas Group applied for federal money through the Equilibrium Communities Initiative, a program that funds new methods of energy and water consumption, as well as environmental responsibility.

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Focus shifts from drilling ban to `virtual moratorium`Royal Dutch Shell PLC and its Calgary-based partner, Nexen Inc., were on a roll in the Gulf of Mexico when BP PLC`s catastrophic blowout brought all exploration activity to a screeching halt. In March – virtually a month to the day before the BP disaster – the partners announced a significant discovery at their Appomattox play in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the third discovery in the area after finds at Shiloh and Vicksburg. The Appomattox discovery well was drilled in 2,186 metres of water, a depth 670 metres greater than BP`s Macondo well.

In the aftermath of the blowout, President Barack Obama declared a six-month moratorium on deep-water exploration activity in order to give investigators time to determine its cause and to ensure industry practices that contributed to it were changed.


Now that BP has managed to staunch the gushing crude and seal the well, the oil industry is increasingly hopeful that it can soon get back to business in the Gulf, perhaps even before the November expiry of the moratorium.


"
Obviously, it`s a turning point and we knew that once the well was capped and no longer leaking into the ocean, it would be a pivotal moment for us,"
said Chris John, president of the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association, which represents major offshore producers.


"
I think we`ve seen a softening of the administration`s attitude on it,"
Mr. John said. He noted that Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar said last week that the moratorium could end earlier than planned if the industry can demonstrate it has new safety measures in place.

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Calgary`s housing market continues to cool

CALGARY - Calgary`s housing market continued its summer slowdown in July, although prices appear stable, new figures show.

The Calgary Real Estate Board said Tuesday single family home sales were down 42 per cent from the same period a year ago. Condominium sales were down 44 per cent in the same period.

In July, there were 915 single family home sales, compared to 1,061 in June. The number of condo sales fell 11 per cent to 396 from the previous month.

The average price of a single family home was $464,655, down four per cent from the previous month, but six per cent higher than in July 2009.

The average condo price was $291,168, level with June, but a two per cent increase from a year ago.

"Calgary`s housing market is cooling off after its record-setting pace in the post-recession period," said Sano Stante, president-elect of the board, in a statement.

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Blistering hot weather in the U.S. has a silver lining for natural gas prices

CALGARY - Wise farmer: "Make hay while the sun shines."

Wise economist: "Sure, but not too much hay, otherwise its price will go down."

Wise natural gas guy: "We`re making too much hay, rain or shine."

Weather is one of the major swing factors that dictates natural gas prices, because 40% of annual consumption is tied to warming us up in the winter and cooling us down in the summer. This year the natural gas industry has been remarkably lucky for a business that`s making too much "hay." Amidst rising production from the infamous shale plays, last winter was quite cold in the big consuming regions of the United States. Furnaces worked overtime in Chicago and New York to burn off surplus natural gas in storage just in time to avert a spring glut. Depressingly low prices, like those witnessed in spring 2009, were averted this year.

Now the blazing sun is helping too. Over the past month much of the United States has been engulfed in blistering hot weather, far above average, especially in Mid and South Atlantic states like Virginia, Georgia and Florida. Figures 1a and 1b show this year`s weekly cooling degree days by region (the average number of degrees above 65 F in a day) compared to 2009 and compared to the five-year average.

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