August 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

BHP warns of job cuts in coal as China cools






SYDNEY (Reuters) - BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote) (BLT.L: Quote) said on Thursday that worsening market conditions could lead to job cuts at its Australian coal mines, as slowing industrial activity in China forces global miners to scale back operations.





Global coal output is set to shrink over the next year or two as miners grapple with a combination of low prices, weak demand and currency headwinds, and high-cost Australian operations are under particular pressure.





Australia's mining boom has hinged on China importing hundreds of millions of tonnes of iron ore, coal, copper and other minerals for most of the past decade, but China's economy is now growing at its slowest pace in more than three years.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Development lessons from 7 industry leaders




This is an excerpt from Professional Real Estate Development: The ULI Guide to the Business, 3rd Edition, by Richard B. Peiser and David Hamilton, scheduled for publication in June. The comments are drawn from interviews conducted by Peiser, the Michael D. Spear Professor of Real Estate Development at the Harvard Graduate School of Design in Cambridge, Massachusetts.




The experts interviewed include Jim Chaffin, chair, Chaffin/Light Associates, Okatie, South Carolina; Robert Engstrom, president, Robert Engstrom Companies, Minneapolis; Mike Fascitelli, president, Vornado Realty Trust, New York City; Gerald D. Hines, founder and chair, the Hines real estate organization, Houston; Jeremy Newsum, executive trustee, the Grosvenor Estates, London; Ron Terwilliger, chairman emeritus, Trammell Crow Residential, and chair, Enterprise Community Partners, Atlanta and New York City; and Lynn Thurber, chair, LaSalle Investment Management, Chicago.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Many Canadians think Canada is in a recession: Poll




Nearly half of all Canadians think the country is in recession, according to a survey by Toronto advertising agency, Bensimon Byrne. This is nearly double the number of people who felt the economy was in a recession when they were polled last year.




But depending on where Canadians live, there are major diversions in sentiment.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Moody's renews Canada's Triple A rating





Canada is keeping its coveted membership in the shrinking club of countries with a stable triple-A credit rating.




But in its annual report on Canada, Moody's Investors Service Inc. warned Thursday that the country`s heavy reliance on now-falling crude prices is likely to be a drag on the economy.




`The drop in prices that has taken place in 2012, combined with lower demand in the U.S., could potentially have a significant impact on the growth performance of the economy,` Moody`s said in its report, reaffirming Canada`s stable triple-A rating.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Brokers embrace an old friend




Hello, old friend?




That new LTV cap on refis will inevitably increase the number of A clients seeking private second mortgages, says one broker specialist. It will also increase the need for broker vigilance.




`We`re talking about A clients who would have been able to go to the bank for a refinance up to 85 per cent under the old rules,` said Morgan Vaughan, with TMG The Mortgage Group in Toronto. `They can now only go to 80 per cent, and I think what we`ll see more of is that type of client turning to private lenders to fill the gap and get that extra 5 per cent out.`





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Global problems could throw Canada off course: Flaherty





OTTAWA (Reuters) ` A stubbornly fragile global economy could throw Canada's steadfast growth and job creation off track, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday, although he highlighted a slowing housing market and increased investment on machinery as positive developments.





Speaking to reporters hours before a visit to Ottawa by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Flaherty said recent steps by the European Central Bank to ease the debt crisis there were useful, but much more had to be done.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Huge oilfield fuels hopes, fear





A potentially enormous shale oil prospect in the Northwest Territories is giving some communities hope the resource-driven economic boost they've long been waiting for may finally be close.




But development of the shale oil find, known as the Canol, has also raised concern over the use of hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, in a remote, ecologically fragile part of the central Mackenzie Valley that is new to that oil and gas extraction technique.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Mortgage matters: Pre-approval versus Pre-qualified






Q: We are looking at buying a home and were wondering what the difference is between being pre-approved or pre-qualified for a mortgage? - Stacie, Barrhaven




A: Getting pre-qualified usually involves having the lender estimate both your borrowing power and the maximum amount of mortgage you can carry.




This usually involves supplying a lender with basic information regarding your income, assets and debts. As this is an initial pre-qualification stage, usually no information is verified at this point. It's simply a place to start to estimate the price range of homes you can consider.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Canadian salaries to jump 2.9% in 2013, workers in resource industries win





TORONTO - A new study suggests Canadian employees can expect to see their salaries rise by an average of 2.9 per cent next year.




That increase is slightly more than the 2.8 per cent increase projected for in 2012 and close to the three per cent increase expected south of the border in 2013.




However, the rise is much lower than projected yearly increases of around 3.7 per cent before the 2008-2009 economic downturn.







Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Renting can be the greener choice





Trisha Towell loves living in the heart of Toronto and walking home from work on a warm summer day. The communications consultant, who is in her mid-30s, made a conscious choice to live and work where she wouldn`t need to use a car.




`It didn`t seem to make sense to live on the outskirts of the city and commute in,` says Towell. `I`m not a fan of pollution and smog and I didn`t want to be contributing to the problem any further. I also see my time as being valuable and didn`t want to spend it commuting in a car.`




Towell prefers walking to cycling even though she knows riding a bike would be faster ` shaving about 15 minutes off her trip to work each way ` but she doesn`t think her route is particularly safe given the volume of traffic. Her afternoon commute home from her office near Bay and College Sts. takes about 35 minutes when she chooses to walk off the stresses of the day. `I see it as doing my part for the environment, but also it helps me decompress,` she says.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Home ownership in Canada reaching new heights





The Canadian real estate industry is in a tight spot these days.




With home-ownership rates headed for record levels and the federal government tightening lending rules to cool the market, the question now is whether we have reached the saturation point.







Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren says that when the latest census figures come out next month she expects us to be in the elite company ` depending on your view ` of countries with more than 70% of households owning their own homes. Based on the 2006 census, we were at 68.4%. `It`s similar to the U.S., U.K. and Australia when they came up with the mid-decade census,` Ms. Warren said.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Disappearing views from Montreal condos





MONTREAL - It was little more than a skeleton of concrete and girders back then, but Jacques Schonberg fell in love at first sight with the unfinished downtown condo because of the views.




From that Renà LevÃsque Blvd. apartment, which he later bought, Schonberg could see the St. Lawrence River, the Olympic Stadium and summit of Mount Royal. But with new condo towers to go up to the east and south of him, Schonberg expects the view from his expansive 23rd floor balcony will soon be replaced with a close up of glass and steel.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Market heat blowing out of east to west









CALGARY, AB - Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) is forecasting eastern housing markets to cool with a warming trend in the west.






`Over the course of 2012, all eastern provinces, except Ontario, are expected to see a contraction in housing starts. This will generally continue into 2013 with Ontario also posting a reduction in total housing starts,` says CMHC in its third-quarter Housing Market Outlook.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

The psychology of real estate




The more I get to know the world of real estate, the more I have noticed that having an understanding of psychology is just as important as sales. In fact, one`s psychology is a driving force behind all sales!








There are many personality tests out there that will not only tell you what type of person you are, but more importantly will help you detect what type of client you`re dealing with before the negotiations even start.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

China is the emissions culprit, not Alberta





NASA scientist James Hansen recently claimed it would be "game over" for the climate - and indeed, human civilization itself - if Alberta's oilsands were developed.




Hansen's headline-grabbing comments, which appeared in an op-ed piece in the usually sober-minded New York Times, were part of the green lobby's campaign to demonize the oilsands, and halt the Key-stone XL pipeline project.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

The Bank of Canada's cote on risk and household debt





Since the credit crisis, the Bank of Canada has stepped up efforts to quantify the risk lurking in our financial system.



Deputy Bank Governor Agathe CÃtà spoke about this Tuesday. She explained how the BoC models risks and provided the following factoids on Canadians` debt exposure.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Sorry folks, but the oil sands are not the font of all environmental evil




Nothing seems to agitate, irritate, animate or anger the green lobby more than the suggestion that perhaps, just perhaps, the oilsands are not the font of all environmental evil.




By merely reporting the facts ` i.e., that China is by far the largest single source of carbon emissions on planet earth, and that Alberta`s oilsands, by comparison, account for little more than a fraction of one per cent of said emissions ` one can drive the eco crowd into fits of rage.




That wasn`t my intent, mind you, when I filed Tuesday`s column. But it`s illuminating to see the reaction to it from those who are determined to paint the oilsands in the most negative light possible.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Why you might wait to buy your house




You may be anxious to own a home and be looking forward to the day when rent will start going towards a mortgage, but there may be benefits to waiting. A larger down payment can save thousands in mortgage insurance premiums and significantly reduce the interest paid over the life of your mortgage.







If you have $18,750 saved for a down payment, and you can manage to put away $1,500 a month, it`s smart to keep saving for another three years. With a larger down payment you can save nearly $20,000 over a five year term.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Canadian banks face rising headwinds




Canadian banks will come under increased pressure as revenues from key businesses such as consumer lending and capital markets start to decline over coming quarters, Fitch Ratings warned on Monday.




The rating agency said it expects high consumer debt levels, primarily from mortgage borrowing combined with broad-based margin pressure, to weigh heavily on big banks` financial results going forward.




`We expect retail loan growth to decelerate in the second half of 2012 as the housing market cools and new regulations aimed at curbing residential lending take effect,` Fitch said.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Immigrants, young workers to buoy home sales




A large bubble of people in their prime home-buying years, coupled with an influx of immigrants, is poised to support Canada's housing market for the next decade, a major bank economist said Thursday.




Benjamin Tal of CIBC put out a report on Thursday in which he argued that Canada's population demographics are working in favour of the country's housing market.




Canada is facing a well-documented demographic pinch over the coming years, as Baby Boomers retire and seek to cash out their homes to finance their retirement. Experts have gotten increasingly concerned on the impact this boomer bulge will have on the job market and the housing market.





Read the full article here.