August 2015 Alberta Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
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ATB's @ABeconomist crunches the numbers on #Alberta's economy and his conclusions are quite contrary to beliefs
Maybe the story is just too juicy for business writers to ignore, but daily news items about Alberta’s economic free fall are more common these days than mosquitoes. Words such as “catastrophe,” “crisis” and “collapse” punctuate articles about job losses and an economy in apparent chaos.
While it may make for sensational reading – especially for those in the rest of the country who may be enjoying a bit of schadenfreude – the data on Alberta’s economy tell a different story. Rather than collapse, the regular monthly indicators suggest a stable yet moderating economy.
Read the full article here.
Maybe the story is just too juicy for business writers to ignore, but daily news items about Alberta’s economic free fall are more common these days than mosquitoes. Words such as “catastrophe,” “crisis” and “collapse” punctuate articles about job losses and an economy in apparent chaos.
While it may make for sensational reading – especially for those in the rest of the country who may be enjoying a bit of schadenfreude – the data on Alberta’s economy tell a different story. Rather than collapse, the regular monthly indicators suggest a stable yet moderating economy.
Read the full article here.
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We've been taught there is a relationship between #oil price & supply & demand. WRONG
Is $20 oil Possible? This question has been asked, and answered, in previous Oilpro posts. Yes, $20 oil is possible. Will it happen? I don't know. But it is worthwhile to understand why a $20 price is not out of reason. Further, it might be instructive to understand why recent oil price commentators are suggesting a low-thirties number.
A year ago it was almost impossible to get an article published that talked about $60 oil. That price was believed to be completely unreasonable. Now we are flooded with commentaries speculating on "How low will it go?", with $30-40 numbers quite common. It now takes $10 or $20 to reach the "sensational" threshold. But is the $20 number of today the same as the $60 number a year ago? Is it just a matter of time? To answer that question we need to remind ourselves of the way prices happen.
Read the full article here.
Is $20 oil Possible? This question has been asked, and answered, in previous Oilpro posts. Yes, $20 oil is possible. Will it happen? I don't know. But it is worthwhile to understand why a $20 price is not out of reason. Further, it might be instructive to understand why recent oil price commentators are suggesting a low-thirties number.
A year ago it was almost impossible to get an article published that talked about $60 oil. That price was believed to be completely unreasonable. Now we are flooded with commentaries speculating on "How low will it go?", with $30-40 numbers quite common. It now takes $10 or $20 to reach the "sensational" threshold. But is the $20 number of today the same as the $60 number a year ago? Is it just a matter of time? To answer that question we need to remind ourselves of the way prices happen.
Read the full article here.
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Despite a loss of 5,000 jobs in June, over the past year Alberta has still gained 22,800 jobs, up 1 per cent, according to the latest employment figures from StatsCan
Employment was virtually unchanged in June (-6,400 or 0.0%), as gains in full-time work were offset by losses in part time. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.8% for the fifth consecutive month.
Following gains of 63,000 (+0.4%) in the first quarter of 2015, employment grew by 33,000 (+0.2%) in the second quarter. Full-time work increased by 143,000 in the second quarter, while part-time work declined by 110,000 over the same period.
Read the full article here.
Employment was virtually unchanged in June (-6,400 or 0.0%), as gains in full-time work were offset by losses in part time. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.8% for the fifth consecutive month.
Following gains of 63,000 (+0.4%) in the first quarter of 2015, employment grew by 33,000 (+0.2%) in the second quarter. Full-time work increased by 143,000 in the second quarter, while part-time work declined by 110,000 over the same period.
Read the full article here.
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This is how much it costs to live in Calgary vs. Edmonton
Alberta may be facing a less-than-ideal economy, but people are still coming to the province in search of employment.
Despite a loss of 5,000 jobs in June, over the past year Alberta has still gained 22,800 jobs, up 1 per cent, according to the latest employment figures from StatsCan.
Read the full article here.
Alberta may be facing a less-than-ideal economy, but people are still coming to the province in search of employment.
Despite a loss of 5,000 jobs in June, over the past year Alberta has still gained 22,800 jobs, up 1 per cent, according to the latest employment figures from StatsCan.
Read the full article here.
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In times of confusion in the housing market, rental demand often increases due to buyer hesitation. We are now witnessing that in Edmonton region
Calgary’s rental market is emerging as an early winner this year as the result of improved vacancy rates, added inventory and a more conservative appetite among buyers in the resale housing sector.
CREB®’s mid-year forecast update, released earlier this week, notes more choice and less upward pressure on rents has, and will continue to, impact the resale market as more consumers choose to keep renting.
Read the full article here.
Calgary’s rental market is emerging as an early winner this year as the result of improved vacancy rates, added inventory and a more conservative appetite among buyers in the resale housing sector.
CREB®’s mid-year forecast update, released earlier this week, notes more choice and less upward pressure on rents has, and will continue to, impact the resale market as more consumers choose to keep renting.
Read the full article here.
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You know that population growth plays an important role in long-term real estate demand. Here is a detailed look at what is projected for Alberta from today until 2041 (that should provide you a large enough window of time)
In 2041, Alberta’s projected population will: Number around 6.2 million, an increase of roughly 2.1 million people from 2014. Be older, with a median age of around 40 years, up from about 36 years today. Be increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 43% of the expected growth. Be even more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton‑Calgary corridor; by 2041 almost 8 in 10 Albertans are expected to live in this region
Read the full article here.
In 2041, Alberta’s projected population will: Number around 6.2 million, an increase of roughly 2.1 million people from 2014. Be older, with a median age of around 40 years, up from about 36 years today. Be increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 43% of the expected growth. Be even more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton‑Calgary corridor; by 2041 almost 8 in 10 Albertans are expected to live in this region
Read the full article here.
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Edmonton home prices dip, inventory climbs
EDMONTON - The average selling price of all residential properties in the Edmonton area fell 1.4 per cent to $372,910 in July, the Realtors Association of Edmonton said Tuesday.
“This small dip in prices is expected due to our higher inventory and lower sales numbers,” association chairwoman Geneva Tetreault said in a news release.
Read the full article here.
EDMONTON - The average selling price of all residential properties in the Edmonton area fell 1.4 per cent to $372,910 in July, the Realtors Association of Edmonton said Tuesday.
“This small dip in prices is expected due to our higher inventory and lower sales numbers,” association chairwoman Geneva Tetreault said in a news release.
Read the full article here.
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Alberta forecasts deficit in the range of $5.4 billion
Alberta’s deficit will be “in the range” of $5.4-billion next year, Finance Minister Joe Ceci said Tuesday, sticking to a spring forecast even as skidding oil prices prompt deeper cuts in the energy sector.
Mr. Ceci kicked off a series of consultations with business and non-profit groups as the NDP government prepares its first budget, which is expected this fall. He declined to specify a date for the budget’s release, but he noted that the provincial legislature resumes sitting on Oct. 26 – a week after the federal election.
Read the full article here.
Alberta’s deficit will be “in the range” of $5.4-billion next year, Finance Minister Joe Ceci said Tuesday, sticking to a spring forecast even as skidding oil prices prompt deeper cuts in the energy sector.
Mr. Ceci kicked off a series of consultations with business and non-profit groups as the NDP government prepares its first budget, which is expected this fall. He declined to specify a date for the budget’s release, but he noted that the provincial legislature resumes sitting on Oct. 26 – a week after the federal election.
Read the full article here.
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Even with low oil prices: With the new tax in Alberta, Canadian Natural Resources moved from profit of $174mill to a $405mill net loss. Yup, that seems to be NOT working
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported a second-quarter loss, and even though the company is feeling the impact of low oil prices, it’s blaming the loss on the corporate tax increase imposed by Alberta’s newly elected NDP government.
Canadian Natural took a $579-million “deferred income tax charge” to account for Alberta’s decision to hike provincial corporate income tax rate to 12 per cent from 10 per cent, effective July 1. As a result of the charge, Canadian Natural reported a second quarter net loss of $405 million or 37 cents a share, compared with a profit of $1.07 billion, or 97 cents, in the year earlier period.
Read the full article here.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported a second-quarter loss, and even though the company is feeling the impact of low oil prices, it’s blaming the loss on the corporate tax increase imposed by Alberta’s newly elected NDP government.
Canadian Natural took a $579-million “deferred income tax charge” to account for Alberta’s decision to hike provincial corporate income tax rate to 12 per cent from 10 per cent, effective July 1. As a result of the charge, Canadian Natural reported a second quarter net loss of $405 million or 37 cents a share, compared with a profit of $1.07 billion, or 97 cents, in the year earlier period.
Read the full article here.
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Calgary tenant plays waiting game as office vacancy rises
Office vacancy rates rose throughout Calgary in the second quarter, aided by an increase in sublease space due to layoffs, according to reports fromBarclay Street Real Estate for the city’s downtown, Beltline and suburban office markets.
“The reality is that contraction is happening amongst many oil and gas companies as they continue to weather the low oil price storm,” said Barclay Street research analyst Christopher Rundle.
“Those companies that were not lucky enough to have lease expiries for this time period may have offered sublease space to the market. But with such a small amount of market activity occurring, many sub-landlords are motivated to alleviate their existing lease commitments by offering extremely competitive rates. This is an interesting time where it is very possible that, on some deals, rental rates could actually be lower than the operating costs.”
Read the full article here.
Office vacancy rates rose throughout Calgary in the second quarter, aided by an increase in sublease space due to layoffs, according to reports fromBarclay Street Real Estate for the city’s downtown, Beltline and suburban office markets.
“The reality is that contraction is happening amongst many oil and gas companies as they continue to weather the low oil price storm,” said Barclay Street research analyst Christopher Rundle.
“Those companies that were not lucky enough to have lease expiries for this time period may have offered sublease space to the market. But with such a small amount of market activity occurring, many sub-landlords are motivated to alleviate their existing lease commitments by offering extremely competitive rates. This is an interesting time where it is very possible that, on some deals, rental rates could actually be lower than the operating costs.”
Read the full article here.
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Big week ahead for Alberta's housing industry
This week we'll get a veritable potpourri of housing information for Alberta.
On Tuesday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will be releasing the number of housing starts in the province for the month of July.
Read the full article here.
This week we'll get a veritable potpourri of housing information for Alberta.
On Tuesday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will be releasing the number of housing starts in the province for the month of July.
Read the full article here.
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Saudi Arabia faces existential crisis after its misjudged gamble on oil
The contract price of U.S. crude for delivery in December 2020 is currently US$62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and petro-states.
The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market to drive out rivals, boosting output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn. Bank of America says the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is now “effectively dissolved.”
Read the full article here.
The contract price of U.S. crude for delivery in December 2020 is currently US$62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and petro-states.
The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market to drive out rivals, boosting output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn. Bank of America says the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is now “effectively dissolved.”
Read the full article here.
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Region's unemployment rate shrinks slightly in July
The region’s unemployment rate edged down slightly in July. Eight per cent of people in the oilsands region of Wood Buffalo – Cold Lake were unemployed, that’s down from 8.2 per cent in July according to Statistics Canada numbers released Friday.
Read the full article here.
The region’s unemployment rate edged down slightly in July. Eight per cent of people in the oilsands region of Wood Buffalo – Cold Lake were unemployed, that’s down from 8.2 per cent in July according to Statistics Canada numbers released Friday.
Read the full article here.
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OPINION: Who will survive and who will thrive when the oil price war is over?
The trouble with price wars is that they almost never turn out the way the participants hope they are going to.
For example, when Rupert Murdoch slashed the price of The Times of London newspaper in 1993, it sparked a price war with the Daily Telegraph that lasted a decade and roped in other “quality” papers in the U.K.
Read the full article here.
The trouble with price wars is that they almost never turn out the way the participants hope they are going to.
For example, when Rupert Murdoch slashed the price of The Times of London newspaper in 1993, it sparked a price war with the Daily Telegraph that lasted a decade and roped in other “quality” papers in the U.K.
Read the full article here.
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July 2015 housing starts in Edmonton
EDMONTON, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Aug. 11, 2015) - Housing starts in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 18,504 units in July compared to 19,226 in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of total housing starts.
"The trend in total housing starts decreased in July as the trend in both single-detached and multi-family units declined. Moving forward, the decline in the trend is expected to continue as economic conditions remain soft," said Christina Butchart, CMHC's Principal, Market Analysis for Edmonton.
Read the full article here.
EDMONTON, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Aug. 11, 2015) - Housing starts in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 18,504 units in July compared to 19,226 in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of total housing starts.
"The trend in total housing starts decreased in July as the trend in both single-detached and multi-family units declined. Moving forward, the decline in the trend is expected to continue as economic conditions remain soft," said Christina Butchart, CMHC's Principal, Market Analysis for Edmonton.
Read the full article here.
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July 2015 housing starts in Calgary
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Aug. 11, 2015) - Housing starts in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 13,215 units in July compared to 13,438 in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of total housing starts.
"The trend in total housing starts in July declined slightly from June as single-detached construction edged lower, offsetting the modest gain in the multi-family segment. While the pace of construction had remained fairly stable from a month earlier, new home construction throughout 2015 has been held back by weaker labour market conditions, slower migration and higher supply levels," said Richard Cho, CMHC's Principal of Market Analysis for Calgary.
Read the full article here.
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Aug. 11, 2015) - Housing starts in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 13,215 units in July compared to 13,438 in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of total housing starts.
"The trend in total housing starts in July declined slightly from June as single-detached construction edged lower, offsetting the modest gain in the multi-family segment. While the pace of construction had remained fairly stable from a month earlier, new home construction throughout 2015 has been held back by weaker labour market conditions, slower migration and higher supply levels," said Richard Cho, CMHC's Principal of Market Analysis for Calgary.
Read the full article here.