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Calgary Appreciation

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Hey,

I notice that the general prediction at the REIN meetings for Calgary is 10-12% this year. Is this the case for all of Calgary or just neighborhoods like Forrest lawn and what not. I bought a place in Cambrian heights so I`m hoping this area will also see this kind of appreciation.

Thanks!
 
That figure is for the average sale price across the city. Some areas will do more and some less. Areas of transition should see the biggest increases in average values.
 
Can I get some thoughts on what appreciation you folks are telling your JV partners to expect in Calgary?

For our business plan we have 0% for 2009 and 2010.
We than have plugged in 2.5% for 11, 12, and 13.

Your feadback is appreciated
pun

(btw: I tried searching the forum for this as I am sure it is here somewhere, but I was not successful)
 
I don`t factor in appreciation when talking with investors. I show them cash flow and tell them that any appreciation is gravy! If they really push for it I ask them what they think appreciation will be and if it is rational I show them what that number will do to their investment.
 
QUOTE (wgraham @ Jul 30 2009, 08:17 PM) I don`t factor in appreciation when talking with investors. I show them cash flow and tell them that any appreciation is gravy! If they really push for it I ask them what they think appreciation will be and if it is rational I show them what that number will do to their investment.
a tad conservative .. don`t you think ?

If there were no (real or assumed inflation like) appreciation real estate is NOT a viable investment unless it is a 10-12% CAP rate commercial asset !
 
We just completed our analysis of our properties and are trying to determine our go forward plan. What propeties will go and how we should plan for the future.
(sorry to put you off track with what you sell you JV`s on)

Here is my question... Your insights are greatly appreciated.

What percentage of increase or decrease in appreciation do you plan for in Calgary`s residential housing market for the next 5 years?
 
REIN Team;

You guys think Calgary will really see an average 10-12% across the board price jump this year?

I`m just curious about what other investors think about that number.

Thanks!
 
QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Jul 30 2009, 10:48 PM) a tad conservative .. don`t you think ?

If there were no (real or assumed inflation like) appreciation real estate is NOT a viable investment unless it is a 10-12% CAP rate commercial asset !

It certainly is conservative but it also changes the focus. If the focus is appreciation then with each market swing I have to make a decision based on that swing and thus feel more like a flipper than a long term investor. And more than likely my investors are going to be a little more edgy with each "market update"

Even with no appreciation, I am still looking at very healthy returns in the current market. I am not sure that I agree with your statement about RE not being a viable asset with no appreciation.....it depends entirely on the investor and their expectations. Yes, if they expect 20% returns per year then my RE investments without predictions of appreciation may not be for them but if they want a safe 8% then I feel that I can easily deliver. When I hand them a cheque for 15% ROI per year they are ecstatic instead of disappointed that we didn`t deliver on the 20%.

Don`t get me wrong, I do think that there is appreciation that will coincide with inflation and yes it certainly is part of the game......I just don`t want to be the guy that is predicting what it is! A losing game in my opinion. Did anyone accurately predict the Calgary RE boom or the last 2 years? If so......I want to be their best friend!

So I keep my investment focus on cash flow and exceed my investor expectations when inflation kicks in. This is the type of investor I look for and helps me sleep at night knowing that I didn`t promise something I might not deliver on.

As a little side note......if I was to work with someone who was purely an appreciation investor.....I might be willing to give him a good portion on the appreciation and keep the most of the cash flow. Because for me paying the monthly bills is much more important than future capital gains at this stage in the game.

All the best,
W
 
QUOTE (wgraham @ Jul 31 2009, 11:30 AM) It certainly is conservative but it also changes the focus. If the focus is appreciation then with each market swing I have to make a decision based on that swing and thus feel more like a flipper than a long term investor. And more than likely my investors are going to be a little more edgy with each "market update"

Even with no appreciation, I am still looking at very healthy returns in the current market. I am not sure that I agree with your statement about RE not being a viable asset with no appreciation.....it depends entirely on the investor and their expectations. Yes, if they expect 20% returns per year then my RE investments without predictions of appreciation may not be for them but if they want a safe 8% then I feel that I can easily deliver. When I hand them a cheque for 15% ROI per year they are ecstatic instead of disappointed that we didn`t deliver on the 20%.

Don`t get me wrong, I do think that there is appreciation that will coincide with inflation and yes it certainly is part of the game......I just don`t want to be the guy that is predicting what it is! A losing game in my opinion. Did anyone accurately predict the Calgary RE boom or the last 2 years? If so......I want to be their best friend!

So I keep my investment focus on cash flow and exceed my investor expectations when inflation kicks in. This is the type of investor I look for and helps me sleep at night knowing that I didn`t promise something I might not deliver on.

As a little side note......if I was to work with someone who was purely an appreciation investor.....I might be willing to give him a good portion on the appreciation and keep the most of the cash flow. Because for me paying the monthly bills is much more important than future capital gains at this stage in the game.

All the best,
W

While I like your approach .. 8% /year is NOT doable in a flat market if one counts TRUE operating costs of an asset, including realtor commission after a 5 years hold and in-unit upgrades due to wear and tear !!!

Example:

Buy a house for $250,000 .. 20% down .. 50K invested .. rent: $1500 .. expenses incl. mortgage $1100 or so .. $400/month or $5000/year cash-flow .. or 25K in 5 years !!! woohoo 10%/year .. BUT: in 5 years you have to replace the fridge, a new carpet, repair the bathrooms and do a full paint job for an expense of $10,000 to bring the asset into the same condition ! Sell and pay realtor 6+3% i.e. $10,500 .. .. so the 25K cash-flow is now down to 5K .. 10% over 5 years !!! or 2%/year .. you have not made a nickel as the real estate investment manager !!

The math does not work Wade if you assume "flat market" .. it works perhaps in a strip mall or apartment building or office tower with an 8-10% CAP rate .. but not in a single family asset. You must have .... and you will have (on average) some 3-5% annual appreciation .. so using 4% in this example i.e. 20% in 5 years or 50K .. all of a sudden the 10% 5 year ROI becomes 110% ROI .. very doable .. and very sellable and very realistic too !!!

Lesson: do not undersell .. and do no buy in a flat market .. and factor in all costs (in and out) !!

btw: 20% in 5 years is quite conservative in selected REIN recommended Top 10 towns in W-Canada or even select US or Ontario towns !!
 
QUOTE (Savard @ Jul 31 2009, 09:19 AM) We just completed our analysis of our properties and are trying to determine our go forward plan. What propeties will go and how we should plan for the future.
(sorry to put you off track with what you sell you JV`s on)

Here is my question... Your insights are greatly appreciated.

What percentage of increase or decrease in appreciation do you plan for in Calgary`s residential housing market for the next 5 years?

Anyone want to share what their pro forma for appreciation in Calgary? Please.
 
QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Jul 31 2009, 03:33 PM) While I like your approach .. 8% /year is NOT doable in a flat market if one counts TRUE operating costs of an asset, including realtor commission after a 5 years hold and in-unit upgrades due to wear and tear !!!
Thomas,

here is the last place I bought and with conservative numbers and all expenses. It gives my investor an easy 7% return without any appreciation.

Initial Market Value $ 348,000
Purchase Price $ 340,000
Downpayment $ 68,000
Depreciable Closing Costs $ 1,500
Other Closing Costs $ 3,000
Initial Cash Invested $ 72,500
Month Year
Gross Rent $ 2,400 $ 28,800
Vacancy Losses $ -96 $ -1,152
-colorc-->Operating Income $ 2,304 $ 27,648
Expenses Monthly Annual
Property Taxes $ -149 $ -1,795
Insurance !--fonto:Arial-->$ -75 $ -900
Management Fees $ -240 $ -2,880
Leasing/Advertising Fees $ -41 $ -500
Association Fees $ 0 $ 0
Maintenance ">$ -120 $ -1,440Other $ 0 $ 0
Operating Expenses $ -626 $ -7,515
Net Performance Monthly Annual
Net Operating Income $ 1,677 $ 20,133
!--fontc-->- Mortgage Payments $ -1,159 $ -13,911= Cash Flow $ 518 $ 6,221+ Principal Reduction $ 321 $ 3,855
+ Instant Equity $ 666 $ 8,000
+ Appreciation $ 0 $ 0
= Gross Equity Income $ 1,506 $ 18,077


Mortgage Info First Second
ntc-->Loan-to-Value Ratio 80% 0%Loan Amount $ 272,000 $ 0
Loan Type Amortizing Amortizing
Term 35 Years 0 Years
Interest Rate 3.750% 0.000%
PMI $ 0 $ 0
Monthly Payment $ 1,159.26 $ 0.00
Performance Metrics (End of Year 1)
Rent-to-Value Ratio 0.71%
Monthly Gross Rent Multiplier 142
Annual Gross Rent Multiplier 12
Capitalization Rate 5.8%
Cash on Cash Return 9%
Pre-Sale Return on Investment 39%
Post-Sale Return on Investment 11%
 
QUOTE (wgraham @ Jul 31 2009, 06:56 PM)
Thomas,



here is the last place I bought and with conservative numbers and all expenses. It give my investor an easy 7% return without any appreciation.



...

Post-Sale Return on Investment 11%


good discussion .. keep it coming .. BUT: I do not see the 7%/year !!



I see 11% in 5 years .. at best as we have to count some capital improvements too .. essentially like or worse than the numbers I show above .. more or less !



Thus: the true gain and reason to invest is EQUITY UPSIDE .. why bother for an 11% investment with an illiquid 5 year investment ?



Thus: a higher CAP rate than 5.8% is required, like commercial real estate, to get true ROI in a flat market .. more here:



Equity Gain not the only way to make money in RE: http://myreinspace.com/public_forums/Real_Estate_Discussion/62-10711-Equity_is_not_the_only_way_to_make_money_in_real_estate.html
 
QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Jul 31 2009, 07:53 PM)
good discussion .. keep it coming .. BUT: I do not see the 7%/year !!



I see 11% in 5 years .. at best as we have to count some capital improvements too .. essentially like or worse than the numbers I show above .. more or less !



Thus: the true gain and reason to invest is EQUITY UPSIDE .. why bother for an 11% investment with an illiquid 5 year investment ?



Thus: a higher CAP rate than 5.8% is required, like commercial real estate, to get true ROI in a flat market .. more here:



Equity Gain not the only way to make money in RE: http://myreinspace.com/public_forums/Real_Estate_Discussion/62-10711-Equity_is_not_the_only_way_to_make_money_in_real_estate.html





$72500 investment

$6166 cash flow

$3832 mortgage pay down

=13.88% first year ROI.....50% to my investor is 6.9% for the first year



The 11% you are seeing is at the end of year 1 and not 5



And yes the equity appreciation is where the big money is made but I still don't think that you can predict appreciation. So why make the guess? What do you gain by presenting your proforma with it?
 
QUOTE (wgraham @ Jul 31 2009, 09:18 PM) ...
And yes the equity appreciation is where the big money is made but I still don`t think that you can predict appreciation. So why make the guess? What do you gain by presenting your proforma with it?

I still don`t see it Wade .. show me the 5 year numbers after realtor fees and in-unit fix up costs for new carpets, new lino, new paint etc .. likely a very low ROI if market is flat for 5 years ..

Usually we show 3 scenarios: worst case, expected case and best case .. so what you show is a worst case scenario .. which is OK .. BUT INSUFFICIENT ... so the message to investors is: WOW you make X % in a flat market i.e. the risk of capital loss is quite small .. and if we factor in a 2.5% or 5% annual appreciation your return would be Y or Z % !

If you honestly thought the market is flat for 5 years then that particular real estate class in that area of the world is not the asset class to invest in .. nor would be the operator ! Show BELIEVABLE REALISTIC figures !
 
QUOTE (DonCampbell @ Mar 10 2008, 02:38 PM) Areas of transition should see the biggest increases in average values.

What do everyone think of areas like the NE Calgary, area like the Saddlerige, Martindale and Taradele? 2 more new train stations coming and the close proximity to the NE ring road which is almost done.
 
QUOTE (JNB @ Aug 1 2009, 08:10 PM) What do everyone think of areas like the NE Calgary, area like the Saddlerige, Martindale and Taradele? 2 more new train stations coming and the close proximity to the NE ring road which is almost done.

I don`t like it because the area does not have zoning for secondary suites and, for lack of a better term, "tenant issues" tend to be more common in this area.

The fundamentals are certainly there but they are also there along the NW LRT and the West LRT which will also connect with the ring road.

The city is also putting a lot of $$ into remaking the westbrook mall area and other west areas like bowness and crowfoot. Not just LRT but rezoning areas for multifamily and commercial construction.
 
Im looking for purchasing a principle residence in one of the following areas in Calgary. Which do you guys think would have the best appreciation rates given a 4-5 year time frame.

1) Bridgeland
2) Connought
3) Crescent Heights
4) East Village
5) Victoria Park
6) Hillhurst

Ive been told to focus in on Victoria Park and East Village, but what are your thoughts?

Thanks!
 
Stay away from bridgeland.

Victoria park and the east village are toss-ups... I like victoria park much better but Arriva 2 just went into receivership so who knows what else will fall in that area.

Depends what type of property you are after... if it is a condo I would recommend looking elsewhere

QUOTE (lilbuffet @ Aug 3 2009, 01:28 PM) Im looking for purchasing a principle residence in one of the following areas in Calgary. Which do you guys think would have the best appreciation rates given a 4-5 year time frame.

1) Bridgeland
2) Connought
3) Crescent Heights
4) East Village
5) Victoria Park
6) Hillhurst

Ive been told to focus in on Victoria Park and East Village, but what are your thoughts?

Thanks!
 
QUOTE (RedlineBrett @ Aug 3 2009, 01:47 PM) Stay away from bridgeland.

Victoria park and the east village are toss-ups... I like victoria park much better but Arriva 2 just went into receivership so who knows what else will fall in that area.

Depends what type of property you are after... if it is a condo I would recommend looking elsewhere

Well I`m looking for a condo to purchase because I will be working downtown and want to be close to work. What area would you choose? Also whats the issue with Bridgeland?
 
QUOTE (lilbuffet @ Aug 4 2009, 09:17 AM) Well I`m looking for a condo to purchase because I will be working downtown and want to be close to work. What area would you choose? Also whats the issue with Bridgeland?

Depends a lot on your budget and how you want to commute. I lived/worked downtown for 3 years and found I benefited a lot from being able to walk to work.

I should disclose that I am a realtor in Calgary. If you`re interested send me an email and I`d be happy to talk it over with you.
 
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