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December 2010 Ontario Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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'These are choices': Regent Park residents on the city and their new neighbourhood





Optimism surrounding the billion-dollar revitalization project in Regent Park was delivered a setback with the murders of Sealand White, 15, and Jermaine Derby, 19, in October and then 18-year-old Nicholas Yombo last month. After the bloodshed, students from Nelson Mandela and Lord Dufferin public schools, kids between the ages of four and 15, marched through their neighbourhood for peace. `We all sat outside crying and taking pictures. It speaks to how committed the community is to making something good happen here,` says Fehmida Murji, supervisor of Regent Park Employment Services, a centre that`s helped 300 neighbourhood residents find jobs.





Like the violence, the revitalization process keeps churning, with new businesses opening and mixed-income housing already ushering new tenants in. A group of Regent Park residents who have recently found work through Employment Services decided to explain their neighbourhood in their own words.





1. Maryam Idris, 33
Supervisor, Sobeys; assistant, Sprucecourt Junior Public School
Backstory I let my son play in the playground behind my building and he was attacked; a boy kicked him in the face ` my son was four, the other boy was about 10. I live at the far end of Regent. It`s not the most ideal place at times.
The neighbourhood
I wasn`t terribly surprised by the shootings. It`s saddening, but it`s something you expect. The apartment next to mine`s been vacant for a year, I had squatters living in there. So much violence, so much crime.
The future
The new buildings going up are breathing new life into a part of the city that`s been forgotten. I wouldn`t tell people I lived in Regent Park, but it feels like everything`s starting fresh. Like residents might say, `Yeah, I live in Regent Park ` and I`m proud of that.`




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Ally

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Toronto searches for affordable-housing solution





Mayor Rob Ford does not hide his contempt for the state of the city`s public housing complexes.





As a councillor representing Rexdale, with pockets of impoverished, often maligned, addresses, he has seen first-hand the shocking conditions ` leaking roofs, broken windows, vermin-infested buildings ` of some of the 58,500 units owned by the Toronto Community Housing Corporation. It is the second-largest subsidized housing provider in North America.





If Mr. Ford had his way, the city wouldn`t build any more affordable housing units until it fixes what it already has.





He opposes a plan to raze North York`s Lawrence Heights housing projects and build it anew in the image of the mixed-income redevelopment underway in downtown`s Regent Park.





`We have a long waiting list [for community housing] right now. Why not bring those people off the waiting list and subsidize their rent,` Mayor Ford told the National Post during a recent interview.




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GTA November new home sales up





Brian Johnston is ending this year with a far different outlook than in 2008 when the economy stalled.





The president of Monarch Corp., Canada`s oldest home builder, has 25 different projects on the go in Ontario, with most of them in the Greater Toronto Area. Strong sales have also meant that he has bumped staffing up by at least 10 per cent this year to meet demand.





Some of that is because he had to cut staff in 2008 when the global economy faced a liquidity crisis.





While both the high and low rise sectors are strong, much of the demand is from continued strength in the condominium sector.





`High rise just keeps rocking,` says Johnston, who is also the former president of the Ontario Home Builders` Association. `Part of that is affordability, where condos are more accessible, and it`s also a lifestyle issue, where people are choosing to live in high rises.`





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Sky-rocketing real estate prices in desirable areas creating super-wealthy enclaves





Growing up the northwest end of Toronto, Irma Baldanza aspired to live in a place like Lawrence Park.





`I remember driving through areas like Forest Hill and Lawrence Park, where my Dad would point out and say, `Look at these beautiful houses,` that sort of thing,` she said. `Once I got married and we started thinking about owning a home, this is one of the areas we looked at.`





The couple started out with a relatively affordable house on Yonge Street and Blythwood Road in the mid-1980s, moving in 1990 to a red-brick Georgian house they could add on to over the next several years, accommodating a growing family. In the past two decades, Ms. Baldanza has seen the treed neighbourhood become increasingly attractive for wealthy families ` and, more recently, developers and investors ` drawn to the larger lots and green spaces.





In a city where property is increasingly at a premium, the rarity of a neighbourhood of large lots just blocks away from a major transit artery makes for dramatically increasing property values. It helps to have good schools ` both public and private ` and engaged residents eager to pitch in for fundraising and beautifying initiatives.





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Will Greater Toronto real estate surf along, or sink, in 2011?






Anyone who tells you that they know what to expect next year in the real estate market has a chance of being right. Anything can happen ` there are so many things beyond anyone`s control.




It`s true that the old adage, `safe as houses,` has been under stress in some of North America, of late.




Yet there are some things happening in the Canadian economy that indicate it should be a good year for the real estate market here in 2011.




Here are five reasons why, in Greater Toronto, a home may still be a good investment.






Interest rates at historic lows.
All indicators from the Bank of Canada point to rates staying low until at least the middle of 2011. If, as expected, inflation also remains low, then there is a very good chance that we will see low rates right to the end of 2011. This alone will continue to drive the real estate market higher.





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City, Samsung near deal on turbine plant, mayor says





The City of Windsor and Samsung are nailing down specifics to build a wind-turbine manufacturing plant here, Mayor Eddie Francis said Thursday.




"We're at the point now where we're talking about building permits and stuff like that," Francis said. "We're meeting with city staff about how we can help them do job fairs and recruitment and more.




"That's positive."




Francis said the mega-deal hasn't been finalized with the Korean manufacturing giant and its partner C.S. Wind, selected by Samsung to build turbines.




But he said a contract could be signed before the end of the year, or shortly thereafter, despite recent rumours that suggested Samsung was shopping the project around to other southern Ontario cities.






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Is Ontario industry set for renaissance?





Ontario`s manufacturing industry has begun a nascent recovery that could get a further charge next year from a pick-up in U.S. demand and the harmonized sales tax introduced in July, economists said Wednesday.




After losing almost 200,000 manufacturing jobs between 2004 and 2008 as the finanical crisis bit, Ontario saw the beginnings of a bounce back in 2010 with more than 10,000 manufacturing jobs created in the first three quarters of the year, a report from the Ontario Manufacturing Council said Wednesday. This accounted for 60% of net new manufacturing work created in Canada.




Manufacturing shipments grew 14% in that same time period while manufacturing exports from the province also grew 15%, the report said.




`Manufacturing output and employment are still well below their pre-recession levels, but the initial signs of rebound that were visible in 2010 are good news,` the report said.




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Crystal ball gazing




The condo will continue to be king among GTA new home buyers. But while highrise lifestyle will continue to be widely embraced in Toronto, it`s still problematic in the 905, where high land costs and development fees are stumbling blocks.




Those were the views of four leading GTA builders who shared their opinions with the Toronto Star in the publisher`s boardroom during a recent roundtable discussion moderated by Stephen Dupuis, CEO and president of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).




The four ` Brian Johnston, president of Monarch Corp., Mark Reeve, partner in Urban Capital, Mimi Ng, vice president of marketing for Menkes Developments, and Paul Golini Jr., vice president of Empire Communities ` also offered their take on other trends, including condos for families, the influence of the West Don Lands/East Bayfront on the Toronto condo scene and whether `green` features matter to buyers.




NEW NORMAL?




According to October figures from RealNet Canada Inc., seven out of 10 homes sold were highrise and for year to date, condos comprised 56 per cent of home sales in the GTA. Is there going to be a rebalancing or is that the new normal? Are consumer preferences changing?





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Condos are city-building by any other name




The market may go up, it may go down, but highrise living isn`t going anywhere. In other words, the condo is here to stay.




That`s the good news. The bad news is that throughout much of the GTA, massive residential condo complexes are going up in advance of the infrastructure ` read transit ` needed to support it. But that`s a topic for another day.




It does remind us, however, that the critical issue is not so much that of architecture but of civic-mindedness. The two overlap, of course, and cannot be separated.




What Toronto needs is a regime that allows for, encourages and rewards design excellence and innovation within the larger framework of the city and its neighbourhoods. City hall, risk averse and inclined to say no, is too often an obstacle.




The development ` actually redevelopment ` process, presided over by the Ontario Municipal Board, lacks a sense of overall purpose.



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