December 2012 Ontario Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

London-St. Thomas unemployment rate drops






The London-area jobless rate fell to 8.5% from 8.7% last month, but only because fewer people were looking for work.




The November report from Statistics Canada was a reminder that the recovery in London-St. Thomas has been painfully slow and the key auto sector is still struggling.




The labour force fell by 1,900 in the area last month and the actual number of people with jobs fell 1,300.





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[Ally]

Mining's economic contribution in Ontario





Mining is a key contributor to the Ontario economy, as well as an engine for regional development and value-add generation. Though the number fluctuates with various commodity price changes, mining in Ontario produces revenues of around $10 billion per year (see our latest Economic Report). Since more than 90% of the inputs to production are Canadian 80% of mineral output is exported to markets in the United States, Europe and Asia, the mining industry contributes immensely to improving Ontario's international balance of trade.





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[Ally]

November Housing starts in Toronto






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 46,700 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) [sup]1 [/sup]of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 37,100 units in November, down from 45,400 in October.




`New home construction has moderated over the past few months in response to slower demand and the number of condos already under construction. Housing starts in Toronto are expected to continue trending lower through the first half of next year,` said Shaun Hildebrand, CMHC`s Senior Market Analyst for Toronto.





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[Ally]

November housing starts in the Hamilton CMA






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in Hamilton, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 2,367 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)[sup]1[/sup] of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 2,765 units in November, up from 1,736 units in October.




`Before seasonal adjustment, total housing starts were down in November 2012 from the same month a year ago. This month`s decrease in housing starts occurred across all dwelling types, with the exception of townhouses. However, between January and November 2012, the number of housing starts remained well above the levels reached during the first eleven months of 2011,` said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC`s Senior Market Analyst for Hamilton and Brantford CMAs.



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[Ally]

November housing starts in St. Catherines, Niagara






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in St. Catharines-Niagara, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 1,068 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)[sup]1[/sup] of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 1,239 units in November, up from 857 in October.




`Monthly housing starts were up significantly in November`, said Paul Tessaro, CMHC`s Market Analyst for St. Catharines-Niagara. `High single-detached construction activity in many submarkets contributed to the increase and now single-detached starts for 2012 are above year-to-date starts in 2011 for the first time since February 2012. Total year-to-date starts still trail 2011 because in 2011 there were the most apartment starts in any year since 1994.`





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[Ally]

November housing starts in Ottawa






OTTAWA, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in Ottawa, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 4,782 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)[sup]1[/sup] of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 3,942 units in November up from 3,484 units in October.




`Housing starts activity recovered slightly in November fuelled by a rise in multiple starts, particularly row housing units, which captured one third of the market. Notwithstanding, the year-to-date low rise starts figure came in close to 23 per cent lower than a year earlier with semi-detached dwellings leading the decline` Sandra PÃrez Torres, Senior Market Analyst for Eastern and Northern Ontario.





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[Ally]

November housing starts in Barrie






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in the Barrie Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 926 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)[sup](1)[/sup] of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 699 units in November, up from 539 in October.




`New construction in the Barrie CMA continues to perform well this year. The relatively affordable housing market in Barrie is attracting a variety of buyers,` said Abdellah Massaoudi, CMHC`s Market Analyst for Barrie.





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[Ally]

November housing starts in the Kitchener CMA






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 1970 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)[sup]1[/sup]of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 950 units in November, down from 1,380 in October.




`With employment trending lower since the first quarter of 2012, many consumers have put their home purchases on hold, impacting the sale of single-detached homes and resulting in lower starts. Demand for the more affordable semi-detached homes and townhomes has remained stronger. Although fewer apartments have been started in the second half of the year, apartment construction still represents more than half of starts this year and close to three-quarters of all units under construction. With an increase in couples without children, lone-parent families and one-person households, there is more demand for smaller, more affordable homes such as townhomes and apartments,` said Erica McLerie, CMHC`s Senior Market Analyst for Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo.





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[Ally]

November housing starts in the Brantford CMA






TORONTO, ONTARIO`(Marketwire ` Dec. 10, 2012) - Housing starts in Brantford, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 387 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)[sup]1[/sup] of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 333 units in November, down from 354 units in October.




`Total housing starts were down in November 2012 compared to the same month in 2011. Single-detached and row starts were completely responsible for the decline in Brantford`s total housing starts this November,` said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC`s Senior Market Analyst for the Hamilton and Brantford CMAs.





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[Ally]

As condo construction cools, Montreal first-time homebuyers left out in the cold




MONTREAL ` First-time buyers continued to be edged out of the Greater Montreal housing market in November, with condo sales plunging 20 per cent on an annual basis, even as new construction softened below last year`s record-setting pace.




On Montreal Island, new condo construction slipped 5.8 per cent, year to date, compared with a record-breaking 2011, after certain areas of the city, including the downtown Ville-Marie borough, CÃte-St.-Luc and Notre-Dame-de-GrÃce and CÃte-des -Neiges shifted this fall to buyer`s markets, the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.





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[Ally]

Economists divided on overbuilding, soft landing




While Canada's once red-hot housing market continues to cool, economists are torn on whether the overbuilding trend of recent years still has room to run and a soft landing is still possible.




The number of housing starts in November for single and multi-family homes dropped to an annualized rate of 196,125 units -- down from the 203,487 housing starts in October and well below the 250,000 starts posted earlier in the year.




The pullback was also sharper than the 201,200 housing starts forecast by economists.





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[Ally]

Landlords beware - some Toronto tenants will legally be allowed to reduce their rent





Almost 30 per cent of Toronto tenant households will receive notices this week that mean they can automatically reduce their rents. All tenants should check their daily mail. If there is a rent reduction notice, tenants should take action.







Addressed to the Current Tenant, clearly marked Rent Reduction Notice Enclosed, and in an envelope with the City of Toronto logo, these letters contain all the customized information a tenant requires to start paying a lower rent as early as December 31, 2012.







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[Ally]

Getting harder to find apartments as Peterborough's vacancy rate falls to 2.7%




There were fewer apartments available to rent in Peterborough in October than there were in October last year, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation`s fall rental market report shows.




Peterborough`s apartment vacancy rate fell to 2.7% in October this year from 3.5% in October last year, according to the report.



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[Ally]

Waterloo apartment vacancy rate rises




WATERLOO REGION ` People looking for an apartment in Waterloo Region have more options to choose from, according to the latest vacancy rate data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.




The apartment vacancy rate in the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo census metropolitan area rose to 2.6 per cent in October, the federal agency said Thursday.




It was 1.7 per cent in October 2011.




There is strong demand for apartments from young adult households, immigrants and seniors, the housing corporation said. And fewer people who are renting are moving to home ownership, it added.





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[Ally]

Survey finds jobs outlook better




A new survey predicts a cheery hiring outlook among local employers next year.




The quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey concludes 20 per cent of local employers expect to increase their staffing during the first quarter of 2013. Only 3 per cent predict cutting jobs and the balance expect to hold on to their current staff.




`Any new client I've contacted says they're seeing steady increases in their business,` said Erika Melarangeli, the manager of the company's Hamilton office. `Everything is going at a very healthy pace.





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[Ally]

The epicenter of the gigantic Canadian housing bubble




As home prices in Canada continue to trend upwards, there's been much discussion about whether this country's housing market is a bubble about to burst. Recent numbers out of Vancouver suggest one of the nation's biggest and hottest markets is cooling down rapidly.





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[Ally]

Bouyed by the rebounding auto industry, London, ON's industries are showing growth




Led by the industrial sector, the commercial real estate market in the London area is showing encouraging signs.




`The good news is we`re trending away from the difficult economic times we`ve had,` said Peter Whatmore, senior vice-president Southwestern Ontario CBRE Ltd., a commercial realty firm.





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[Ally]

Hamilton on wrong track on licensing rentals




I appreciate The Hamilton Spectator reporting on this very important subject, however I would like to clarify some points.




The story said this licensing will add $650,000 to city coffers. The licensing proposal will not add anything to the city`s finances. The licensing project will be a cost to the city on their optimistic estimates of $600,000 in the first year.




I believe the cost will be many times higher and increase over time, placing a burden on taxpayers. The license and related costs will cause rent increases, which I estimate will be about $50 a month.





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[Ally]

Kitchener a buyer's market in 2013




A national real estate association says it will be tough to sell a home in 2013, but those who do manage to sell will net higher prices than in 2012.




But one Kitchener realtor doesn`t see it that way, saying house prices will drop next year along with real estate sales volumes.




Mark Maurer, a longtime Kitchener real estate agent, says prices are in fact already dropping.





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[Ally]

Number of 2 bedroom units still on the market in the GTA higher than 1 bedroom units






RealNet`s always enlightening Informed Advantage blog published some excellent insights on the standing inventory numbers in GTA high-rises.




Standing inventory refers to the number of units available for sale in projects that have finished construction with units available for occupancy. According to RealNet`s data, ther were 1,147 units in this category in the GTA as of October 31, 2012.




There are 407 two bedroom units and 307 two bedroom + den units for sale in completed new construction high-rises. That`s 62 per cent of the current remaining inventory.





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