Economic Carnage in Alberta

[Jack]

-A week of economic carnage in energy-rich Alberta -- once thought immune to global turmoil -- is a "wake-up call" to the province and marks the dawn of a new era, Finance Minister Iris Evans declared Friday.-the manager of the provincial purse strings believes Alberta will be lucky if it can rebound from the economic slowdown within two years and suggested Wild Rose Country is entering a period of "figuring out what you can do without."-On Tuesday, the government`s second-quarter fiscal update revealed crumbling commodity markets and lower tax revenue have slashed $6.5 billion from the projected surplus in the past three months alone, leaving an annual windfall of $2B.

-Corporate tax revenue, for example, is down $487 million from projections made in August. "You`d be a fool not to consider that a wake-up call," she added. Wednesday saw a government-commissioned report predict Alberta`s spending and "ad-hoc" savings policy will drive the province into deficit within five years unless fiscal habits change.

-"My hunch is that Alberta has seen its last boom," Liberal Leader Kevin Taft predicted Friday. "The last week could go down as a historic week, the week the economy hit the ditch."

-Banks predict the Alberta economy will grow 1.9% this year, gearing down to 0.3% in 2009 -- the slowest since 1986.

(Calgary Herald 081122)

 

[REINteam]

Jack, there seems to a be a great interest in your posts, which is great. All REIN™ members and anyone interested in Real Estate need to pay attention more than ever to what`s going on around us every day. This is why it is critical that all REIN™ members stay current on the economic fundamentals, and why it is important members attend the REIN™ meetings each and every month. As members know The Cutting Edge Research Team dives head first into all the economic fundamentals in the market, each and every month, that directly impact you.Jack, we strongly encourage you to keep providing the posts, however there has been a concern expressed to our office of where you are posting your economic fundamentals news articles.
Continue to post your information in the following format
[*]Post your articles in the Economic Development Subforum[*]Post in the correct discussion thread that has been created by Joe Iannuzzi (each month a new set of folders is created)

• BC- Click here
• AB- Click here
• CA- Click here
• Sk- Click hereMB- Click herePost the accurate headline of the article at the top of the postInclude the accurate first and second paragraphs from the article in the postInclude the link to the full article at the bottom of your post so people can go and read the article in its entirety, not just the summary version that is being provided. Many people are interested in reading the entire article to get the full story.

For example with this article you posted, in the future you will include this in the latest AB (AB Economic Fundamentals 2008-11) Thread, include the accurate headline, couple of paragraphs and the link to the full article

i.e.)

1108ALTA

Tories warn of tough times

Minister calls financial chaos over past week a `wake-up call`

A week of economic carnage in energy-rich Alberta -- once thought immune to global turmoil -- is a "wake-up call" to the province and marks the dawn of a new era, Finance Minister Iris Evans declared Friday.

In fact, the manager of the provincial purse strings believes Alberta will be lucky if it can rebound from the economic slowdown within two years and suggested Wild Rose Country is entering a period of "figuring out what you can do without."

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/s...a09412b&p=1

This should actually save you time following this format, as you will not have to hightlight, bold, underline and use italics as you currently have been using. Plus you will only have to pick the first couple of paragraphs of the article and not have to pick select parts of the article.

We encourage you to keep providing the information, and if the proper format and procedures is followed everything will continue running smoothly, and all who read will be exposed to the actual article as written in the paper.

Many thanks
Your REIN team

 

[Thomas Beyer]

yes, last week was the last leg down in the stock market .. everyone fully invested in stocks compared to peak of fall 2007 or spring 2008 is now down 40-50% incl. heritage fund`s equity portion or the minister`s RRSP portfolio .. so yes, everyone is paniked ..
Maybe now is a good time to BUY both discounted real estate and stocks ?

 

[ZanderRobertson]

all this makes me miss ralph. what would he have said about the tough financial times upcoming?i can`t believe alberta is projected to miss recession by a hair. that`s pretty good. how many other jurisdictions will be able to claim this? perhaps the entire west? maybe it`s time to start up the WCC again and get another western sovereignty movement going! yee haa!QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 24 2008, 12:36 PM) -A week of economic carnage in energy-rich Alberta -- once thought immune to global turmoil -- is a "wake-up call" to the province and marks the dawn of a new era, Finance Minister Iris Evans declared Friday.-the manager of the provincial purse strings believes Alberta will be lucky if it can rebound from the economic slowdown within two years and suggested Wild Rose Country is entering a period of "figuring out what you can do without."

-On Tuesday, the government`s second-quarter fiscal update revealed crumbling commodity markets and lower tax revenue have slashed $6.5 billion from the projected surplus in the past three months alone, leaving an annual windfall of $2B.

-Corporate tax revenue, for example, is down $487 million from projections made in August. "You`d be a fool not to consider that a wake-up call," she added. Wednesday saw a government-commissioned report predict Alberta`s spending and "ad-hoc" savings policy will drive the province into deficit within five years unless fiscal habits change.

-"My hunch is that Alberta has seen its last boom," Liberal Leader Kevin Taft predicted Friday. "The last week could go down as a historic week, the week the economy hit the ditch."

-Banks predict the Alberta economy will grow 1.9% this year, gearing down to 0.3% in 2009 -- the slowest since 1986.

(Calgary Herald 081122)

 

[Jack]

QUOTE This should actually save you time following this format, as you will not have to hightlight, bold, underline and use italics as you currently have been using. Plus you will only have to pick the first couple of paragraphs of the article and not have to pick select parts of the article.That`s not going to happen, I`m not going to follow that format. Joe does a great service, but you can only click on so many external links and you can only read so many entire articles before you realize that wow, I`ve just lost an hour/two/a morning! The real value in these economic topics is the discussion & analysis that follows the articles, from members like Wealthy Boomer, Thomas, Zander, Garth, and many others.

I mean, who has time to read 100 articles a day? The reason I`ve been posting what I have, like I have, is to encourage discussion, to provoke thought, and to promote healthy debate/idea generation. The reason why I don`t include the full link of the article is because it`s not given to me - all of these articles which I post are sent to my inbox at work on a daily basis. If I see one which has relevance to real estate, and that Joe has happened to miss, I post only the key points/cliff-notes version of the intended message from the writer and not the editorial clutter.

Anyway - after being called "negative" ad nauseum, a "troll", an "expert" (sarcastically), I guess some people are only interested in seeing "What`s Behind the Curtain" if it serves their cause. You won`t see any more of these posts from me, I don`t agree with that format and don`t think it`d really encourage discussion like mine have proven to. Again - Joe`s service is fantastic, but there`s an old saying that I like to subscribe to - if it ain`t broken, you haven`t looked hard enough!

C`est la vie!

 

[ZanderRobertson]

I have to say I agree with Jack on this one, the contrasting viewpoints brought up some great conversation on these posts.that being said, there is a format/decorum to follow here.
Jack, a suggestion; why not post a new topic just as you have been doing with your first blush opinion on the article without actually posting the article in the general discussion board, perhaps the hijinks will continue and conversations will develop.

otherwise debate will find a way anyhow.

QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 24 2008, 05:12 PM) That`s not going to happen, I`m not going to follow that format. Joe does a great service, but you can only click on so many external links and you can only read so many entire articles before you realize that wow, I`ve just lost an hour/two/a morning! The real value in these economic topics is the discussion & analysis that follows the articles, from members like Wealthy Boomer, Thomas, Zander, Garth, and many others.

I mean, who has time to read 100 articles a day? The reason I`ve been posting what I have, like I have, is to encourage discussion, to provoke thought, and to promote healthy debate/idea generation. The reason why I don`t include the full link of the article is because it`s not given to me - all of these articles which I post are sent to my inbox at work on a daily basis. If I see one which has relevance to real estate, and that Joe has happened to miss, I post only the key points/cliff-notes version of the intended message from the writer and not the editorial clutter.

Anyway - after being called "negative" ad nauseum, a "troll", an "expert" (sarcastically), I guess some people are only interested in seeing "What`s Behind the Curtain" if it serves their cause. You won`t see any more of these posts from me, I don`t agree with that format and don`t think it`d really encourage discussion like mine have proven to. Again - Joe`s service is fantastic, but there`s an old saying that I like to subscribe to - if it ain`t broken, you haven`t looked hard enough!

C`est la vie!

 

[Lucas]

QUOTE (ZanderRobertson @ Nov 24 2008, 06:29 PM) I have to say I agree with Jack on this one, the contrasting viewpoints brought up some great conversation on these posts.

that being said, there is a format/decorum to follow here.

Jack, a suggestion; why not post a new topic just as you have been doing with your first blush opinion on the article without actually posting the article in the general discussion board, perhaps the hijinks will continue and conversations will develop.

otherwise debate will find a way anyhow.


awww Jack do you need a hug...

Jack`s posts have been controversial and have brought a new and interesting element to the forum. As much as I don`t enjoy reading the posts (moreso the titles Jack gives them), after seeing the discussion they have catalyzed I think they do a service to forum and I think we should work with Jack to keep his opinions and posts going.

Lucas

 

[randy]

QUOTE (Lucas @ Nov 24 2008, 05:58 PM) awww Jack do you need a hug...

Jack`s posts have been controversial and have brought a new and interesting element to the forum. As much as I don`t enjoy reading the posts (moreso the titles Jack gives them), after seeing the discussion they have catalyzed I think they do a service to forum and I think we should work with Jack to keep his opinions and posts going.

Lucas
I believe that Jack`s posts ad value If you do not wish to read Jack`s post don`t negative or positive it is worth a look. I remember a poster Big Bear? He was in my opinion run off this forum. I say post what you like in the manner that you like as a bad news story will not make me panic but maybe not buy any more right now. Thank you for your posts in the past and I hope to see more posts from you in the future. If all Jack`s posts were positive would we have a problem. All the posts that Jack has made have been helpful to me thank you

 

[terri]

I like Jack`s posts, yes it would be nice if the links were there to read the full article, but I tend to have a glass is half full mentality ( buying opportunity, woohoo!!! )and sometime I need a more "conservative" perspective to bring me back down to earth. Joe`s posts are great, very balanced, but I find that much of "behind the curtain" does seem to be scued toward the positive. I don`t want to hear just the good stuff, I`m a positive person so I`ll see the positive all on my own. I want to be challenged.

I understand wanting the article behind the headline, that`s what doing your due diligence is all about, but I don`t think jack`s posts should be sensored or he should be forced to change his format just because some people take offense to it. They`re not XX-rated, politically incorrect, so what are people taking offense to? the fact that they are of a negative nature? If you don`t like them, don`t read them.

Maybe jack should start his own section for posts like Joe`s "economic fundamentals", but not adding his posts to "economic fundamentals". When I go to "economic fundamentals" , I expect to see Joe`s posts, I think adding jack`s perspective to this section would change the "feel" of what Joe posts. If Jack were to have his own section, then it may be easier for those wishing to avoid his posts to do so, but I don`t think he should be sensored. Everyone should be able to challenge the way we all think. I know I for one read his posts interesting, but 5 mins later I have no idea what it was about, I want to hear the negative side of the news but honestly it doesn`t stay with me. I seem to only hear what I want to hear ( buying opportunity, woohoo!!! ), so I need to be reminded every once in a while that not everyone sees this the same way I do.


Terri

 

[GSI]

QUOTE if[/b] it serves their cause. You won`t see any more of these posts from me, I don`t agree with that format and don`t think it`d really encourage discussion like mine have proven to. Again - Joe`s service is fantastic, but there`s an old saying that I like to subscribe to - if it ain`t broken, you haven`t looked hard enough!

C`est la vie!

Its a forum. People gripe, whine, vent, debate and so on... For all the people complaining about Jack a lot came to his rescue or the rescue of a free debate. I think the above suggestion of a new place to post articles and comments with Jack`s bent is a good idea.

Not specifically his own per se, but how about a `Current Events Debate` or `Economic Truth or Fiction Discussion`. There Jack or anyone else can write/post comments for discussion. It won`t clog up the other areas and give the folks that want to challenge ideas a place to do it that won`t upset the others that don`t want to join/read.

My 2¥

 

[TodorYordanov]

" Half man, half amazing" - with ego this big I think he needs his own section in this forum.

A place where all these daily reports spilled from a fine-tuned "microscope can be discussed and read for hours.

Frankly I need to stay focused and stay the course. " What`s behind the curtain" provides me with information of how things work out in the span of few years, not few months. And the outcomes are usually positive for people who play the game right, hence the positive feel of "What`s behind the curtain".

I come to this forum to learn from real estate investors with more experience and to offer my experience to beginners when possible.

Please give discussions of daily news on Alberta it`s own space. Anywhere I don`t usually go is fine by me.

Todor

 

[DonCampbell]

What a great discussion line again, and I think that Russell is pretty clear, we WANT debate, that brings fire and enthusiasm to life. However a simple link to the article provides the data that others can use to enter the debate from an informed position, that`s all.

No harm in thinking differently - that means that you`re thinking which is critical! Jack`s and others post have stimulated people`s brains.... and there is one thing that is important to note and it comes from Joseph Campbell`s (no relation) philosophy book. In it he speaks about how, whenever you are on a path, whatever one you choose, you will be challenged and tested along the way, just to make sure that you truly want the goal at the end of the journey you began.

If it isn`t being challenged it just isn`t real and that`s why debate, when kept non-personal, is so healthy. It makes us pay more attention to our opinions, it makes us fact check the stance that we have chosen and it allows us to grow in confidence. So I believe that in the right format that all of us can and should make our opinions heard in a factual and non-personal way so that others who choose a different journey to us are fact checking their information and we are forced to fact check ours.

Keep the debate going - helps you find alot about your self and your chosen path.

Just make sure that if anyone is posting some `fact`s that for the convenience of others that the link is somewhere in the
post.

Have Fun!

Here is a repeat of a post I made in another thread in case anyone didn`t see it.

However, let`s keep the discussion about what is important the facts, the opinions and the full articles (and not the personalities involved).

This world would be VERY boring if we didn`t have lots of different analysis of the same economic conditions.

What is VERY entertaining is that the last time we saw this happen was during the KYOTO accord signing. Opinions ran all over the amp, and people started to get personal. And we all saw what happened after that debacle.

We all have freedom of choice, without hijacking a discussion or doing something just to be a rebel. I think that some of these posts are healthy to create debate, just like we had back during the KYOTO scary times.

The key is to keep it focused on the facts. And at the absolute bottom line is, have fun in the discussions but don`t take your eye off the ball which is it is sometimes easier to hide on-line than to act in real life.

We all have goals for ourselves and our families and THAT is what needs to be the focus. Making decision based on sound reasoning not emotionally charged discussions. The best part is that the many REIN Members who have been Members for over 15 years have seen this all before, often these types of discussions are started and perpetuated by those just starting out and that`s OK it keeps everyone sharp.

But keep the facts clear, if anyone is going to post an article found elsewhere, make sure that the article itself is not edited and a link is provided to the source (the ol` What`s Behind The Curtain), then put an opinion, if you want, after it. Simple and makes it helpful for all and will stimulate more discussion.

The next 12 months are going to be interesting. It took over 18 months for KYOTO to work its way out of the system and for people to get confident again. Let`s see how long this takes.......

 

[EdRenkema]

QUOTE (TodorYordanov @ Nov 25 2008, 07:19 AM) " Half man, half amazing" - with ego this big I think he needs his own section in this forum.

Todor

Todor I think you hit the operative term right on the head of its nail.

 

[Allie]

I have two questions Don. I understand there are various predictions and models for investing in times of uncertainty. I do not have the time to spend hours researching the economic fundamentals nor do I know how to analyze the subtleties and variables involved so I am thankful for REIN`s research team. It is my observation that fear is rampant, even amongst those who have experienced several boom and busts. 1. I am wondering what your most educated guess is for the time frame (range) in which sale prices in Alberta will begin to rise again. 2. For investors who are more risk-adverse (generally speaking) do you suggest that they wait a few months to assess the market conditions or buy now? In other words, do you foresee greater purchasing power in the months ahead?

 

[VicChung]

QUOTE (MatzoB @ Nov 25 2008, 06:21 PM) I have two questions Don. I understand there are various predictions and models for investing in times of uncertainty. I do not have the time to spend hours researching the economic fundamentals nor do I know how to analyze the subtleties and variables involved so I am thankful for REIN`s research team. It is my observation that fear is rampant, even amongst those who have experienced several boom and busts. 1. I am wondering what your most educated guess is for the time frame (range) in which sale prices in Alberta will begin to rise again. 2. For investors who are more risk-adverse (generally speaking) do you suggest that they wait a few months to assess the market conditions or buy now? In other words, do you foresee greater purchasing power in the months ahead?


I think Jack`s posts are great. I have seen the same negative articles in the news and internet, and asked the same questions. The discussions have allowed me to get a more balanced view. I would vote for having the negative news in the General Discussion.

As for the economic fundamentals forum, I used to read them, but find the new format hard to read. To balance the negative news, does anyone think that we should start posting a few of the REALLY great and POSITIVE articles in the General Discussions as well? This would allow everyone to stay positive and might create new positive discussions.

 

[Allie]

QUOTE (VicChung @ Nov 25 2008, 07:31 PM)
As for the economic fundamentals forum, I used to read them, but find the new format hard to read. To balance the negative news, does anyone think that we should start posting a few of the REALLY great and POSITIVE articles in the General Discussions as well? This would allow everyone to stay positive and might create new positive discussions.




I feel more compelled to read an article when there are members' comments and opinions posted to accompany it. Generally speaking, this doesn't happen much in the current Economic Fundamentals section. Judging from the number of responses Jack's posts elicit, other members share this sentiment.