QUOTE (Dan_Eisenhauer @ Aug 16 2008, 10:14 AM)
Somewhere I have seen a graph showing Edmonton's annual average house price for the last 30 to 50 years. However, I cannot recall where I have seen that.
I am making a presentation on the state of the real estate and mortgage industries in Canada. I would like to find that graph for my presentation.
Does anyone know what I am talking about, and where I can find it? Alternatively, do you know where I can find the data to create my own graph?
Thanks for your help.
Dan
It is attached to this one here:
http://myreinspace.com/search/rein_members_only/Property/84-2255-8715-Calgary_historical_market_analysis.html#8715
Real estate prices(for single family, townhouses or condos ` i.e. owner occupied) moved up well over 100% in 3-4 years .. no wonder it is correcting down .. maybe 10 % to 15% !!
It will rise from there .. but the worst is NOT over yet !!
So let's say price was $500,000 last year for a slightly above average home (the peak in late spring 2007) .. it is now about $460,000 .. it may drop another 3-5% .. let's say to $430,000. Then flat for a year .. then inflationary rise of 4-6% /year or $20,000/year .. back @ $500,000 in 2012 to 2013 !!
Look at the curve .. when will it come back to an inflationary upswing ? 4-6 years from now !
5 to 6 years from peak to peak .. but ok if you buy now or next year !!
So position yourself for buying NOW .. but be VERY diligent and careful .. no need to rush !!
Or buy strict rental properties that perform well in any economy ( .. this is what we do ..)
AB has strong in-migration, strong job growth, decent but not great affordability .. and interest rates are still low .. so is well positioned for eventual growth again .. after price correction has flattened out ..
Real estate does NOT grow linearly .. it wobbles up and down an inflationary slope of 4-6% ON AVERAGE .. and in the last 3-4 years we were (across the globe in UK, Victoria, Australia, Spain, BC, AB ..) WELL above that 4-6% inflationary growth .. so even a drop of 30% from 2007 peak is NOT a surprise !!
Hence the emphasis on cash-flow so you can hold .. and weather out these troughs !! It is NOT a fast path to wealth .. don't flip .. the time to buy pre-sales condos is over .. and the time to make a fast buck is over too !! It is a PROVEN LONG TERM PATH TO WEALTH .. if you are patient enough and can hold long term !
(but of course, Dan, you know all that ..)
