February 2010

[Ally]

Drop in EI rolls shows `healing` in Alberta labour market

EDMONTON — The number of Albertans receiving regular employment insurance benefits fell 4.4 per cent in December after three months of increases.

Statistics Canada reported there were 70,060 Albertans on EI, down 3,190 from November -- but up 211 per cent year-over-year.

The number of Albertan recipients continued to be at least double the tally from a year earlier, said StatsCan.

"The year-over-year increases in December, however, were slower than in previous months," the agency said.

In Edmonton, the number of people receiving benefits rose to 17,300 from 6,700 from December 2008 to December 2009.

In Calgary, the number increased to 19,600 from 6,300 in the same period.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Public works and economic building block: Stelmach

Alberta has to compete globally, not just against its provincial neighbours, and keeping up to speed on infrastructure spending will help it be an economic leader, Premier Ed Stelmach said Friday.

"There`s no question we need to be careful with our dollars right now, and 13 departments have had budget cuts. But investing in infrastructure is a good long-term move," Stelmach told Edmonton Construction Association`s annual meeting and lunch.

"It only makes sense to buy things now when prices are lower and labour is available."

One lesson he learned from past economic downturns was that saving money on infrastructure in the short term meant paying more in the long term, Stelmach said.

Not only did Alberta not have the infrastructure it needed when recession turned to growth, but the government also found itself competing with the private sector to get everything done at once, he said.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

U.S. natural gas rig count rises

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by two this week to an 11½-month high of 893, according to a report Friday by oil services firm Baker Hughes in Houston.

It was the eighth straight weekly gain and puts the gas rig count at its highest level since March 6, 2009, when there were 916 gas rigs operating.

The U.S. natural gas drilling rig count has rebounded 34 per cent after bottoming at 665 on July 17, its lowest level since May 3, 2002, when there were 640 active gas rigs.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Alberta`s Energy sector to bounce back

OTTAWA — Alberta`s energy sector is set to bounce back and help lift economic growth by 2.5 per cent this year, the Conference Board of Canada said Monday.

And the provincial economy will continue to gain momentum into 2011, with growth forecast to jump by 4.1 per cent.

British Columbia will lead all provinces this year, with 3.7 per cent growth, thanks to Olympic spinoffs and an improved outlook for forestry and manufacturing, the board said in its provincial outlook.

Renewed American auto demand will help Ontario surpass the national average for the first time in nearly a decade with growth of 3.5 per cent.

"The recovery in Central and Western Canada began to take shape in the last few months and will continue to do so through 2010," the report said.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Oil price stability heralds new equilibrium

LONDON - Volatility in the NYMEX front month crude oil contract has dropped to the lowest level in more than two years, and some of the lowest levels at any time since 1996.

Spot market trading has been confined in a relatively narrow $65-$85 US per barrel range since August 2009, with news flow causing only small day-to-day disturbances. The market seems comfortable trading around $75. It is an equilibrium that satisfies most producers and consumers — high enough to incentivize new investment in fossil fuels and clean energy, without triggering too much demand destruction.

Close-to-close volatility has been declining more or less continuously since peaking at the height of the banking and financial crisis in January 2009, but in the 30 days ending February it hit a new low of 26.01 per cent.

Current volatility is the lowest since the autumn of 2007. In fact, daily price changes have been some of the smallest since 1996. Present volatility is ranked at just the tenth percentile for the whole period.

The market`s remarkable stability appears to be the product of a number of factors:

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Alberta Shale gas play creates a buzz

Alberta`s two drilling rights auctions in March are expected to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars, thanks to interest in a long-known shale gas play called Duvernay that is being unlocked by some new technology.

Chris Theal, global head of oil and gas research for Macquarie Securities, said interest in the play, which is southeast of Grande Prairie in northwestern Alberta, was largely responsible for the surprising $384-million Dec. 16 provincial land sale.

That single sale brought in more money for the Alberta treasury than the $347 million raised to that point in 2009 and was the highest sale of non-oilsands rights since December 2006.

The sales next month will be even more lucrative for the government and move the boundaries for the play farther north into the Peace River Arch, Theal told a gas conference this week.

"There are 2,100 sections of land posted in those two land sales," said Theal, noting 1,122 sections in the first sale and 748 in the second.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

`Balanced` local home sales a rarity: Analysis

EDMONTON — While lack of inventory will be the greatest challenge for housing markets across Canada, Edmonton still boasts balanced conditions, says a new national report.

Canadian consumers are rushing to beat higher costs and tighter restrictions on buying a home, so lack of homes for sale will be the biggest challenge in most markets, said the ReMax Market Trends Report released Wednesday.

But in Edmonton, "balanced market conditions have, for the most part, re-emerged in 2010," said the report. "Values, still off peak 2007 levels, have hit a plateau, as buyers take advantage of opportunities at all price points."

The report says Edmonton, Calgary and Saskatoon are balanced, but conditions are tightening from the situation during the real estate boom that saw a glut of homes for sale.

In Edmonton, "the oversupply of listings available for sale throughout 2008 and 2009 has largely been absorbed, with inventory returning to more normal levels," the ReMax report said.

Active listings are down about 26 per cent from a year ago to 4,864 in January, while the number of homes sold in Edmonton is up 21 per cent to 884 units. The average price has stabilized at $314,783.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Alberta sees big jump in construction permits

EDMONTON — Building plans for commercial and multi-family projects vaulted Alberta to December`s second-biggest biggest monthly gain among Canadian provinces in the value of construction permits.

Builders took out $1.2 billion worth of permits -- a 9.1-per cent increase over November, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. Only Ontario posted a bigger gain.

It`s a vastly brighter outlook than the construction sector faced in December 2008; the value of building permits increased 61.2 per cent from then. But the increase wasn`t shared provincewide.

ATB Financial economist Dan Sumner noted the gains came from Calgary`s higher issuance of commercial and multi-family permits.

The value of permits in Calgary jumped 72 per cent from November and 173 per cent from a year earlier.

Edmonton saw a 40-per-cent monthly drop, but that was still 10 per cent better than a year earlier.

Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Edmonton`s economy will rebound in 2010: Report

EDMONTON — After shrinking for the first time since 1991 last year, Edmonton`s economy will snap back in 2010 by growing 3.2 per cent, says a new national forecast released Wednesday.

While the mid-decade boom is clearly over, the Conference Board of Canada`s Metropolitan Outlook says the Edmonton region`s gross domestic product will grow an average of just over four per cent annually between 2011 and 2014.

Last year, Edmonton`s GDP fell an estimated two per cent -- the biggest drop on record.

Edmonton`s recovery puts it in a four-city tie behind front-runners Vancouver, Toronto and Kitchener, which will grow economically by 4.5, 3.5 and 3.3 per cent, respectively.

Calgary`s GDP is expected to rebound from its first recession since 1989 with three-per-cent growth and strong gains in the goods sector, retail sales and services.

"Only four Canadian cities posted economic growth of any kind in 2009 -- Halifax, Saint John, Winnipeg and Regina," said Mario Lefebvre, director of the Centre for Municipal Studies. "Fortunately, Canadian cities are on the rebound in 2010, although the pace of recovery will vary markedly.

Read the full article here.