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Forecast for the next 1-4 years

K

kir

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Oct 4, 2007
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HI,As an real estate investor, I assume we must be somewhat visionary.
We don`t invest for no reason. So in general, if you are about to buy something or have recently purchased something, what gains would you expect in the next 3 to 4 years?
There can only be 2 choices:

1) You want cashflow and hope for a higher valution in 3 to 4 years time.
2) You are positive the returns in 3 to 4 years will average to be at least a `X` amount above inflation.

Which of the above might you be in and why?

Thanks for you insight:

Kir
 
QUOTE (kir @ Feb 9 2009, 10:15 AM) HI,As an real estate investor, I assume we must be somewhat visionary.
We don`t invest for no reason. So in general, if you are about to buy something or have recently purchased something, what gains would you expect in the next 3 to 4 years?
There can only be 2 choices:

1) You want cashflow and hope for a higher valution in 3 to 4 years time.
2) You are positive the returns in 3 to 4 years will average to be at least a `X` amount above inflation.

Which of the above might you be in and why?

Thanks for you insight:

Kir
I am looking for inflation adjusted cashflow for my costs of living and future investments.
 
QUOTE (gwasser @ Feb 9 2009, 12:20 PM) I am looking for inflation adjusted cashflow for my costs of living and future investments.


We recently moved and were unable to sell our initial home. Being in Keswick we felt that property values would definitely be higher in 3-4 years due to 404 extension to south end of town and major construction projects like Crates Marina Resort/Apartment complex on Cooks Bay. We decided to rent and currently enjoy a positive cash flow property with hopes of better than average appreciation. (Although with many economists now saying slumping economy until 2012/2013 we may have to hold it even longer).

Future purchases will be based on positive cash flow and consideration for long term appreciation that is better than average.

(My apologies...It appears I replied to the wrong post and should have replied to original question)

Randy Dalton
Woodworker
 
For myself, regardless of the economic situation, positive cash flow is mandatory on any purchase. For those depending on appreciation, or at least hoping for it, I do not see enough over the next 3-4 years to warrant much interest (short term). Depending of course on where you buy as always.
 
QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Feb 12 2009, 10:14 AM)
a pro-longed bottom this year and next .. then inflationary 6% or so .. possibly more depending on interest rates and monetary stimulus i.e. devaluation of money (i.e. appreciation of HARD ASSETS)



more here: (REIN members only due to attachments): http://myreinspace.com/rein_members_only/Members-Only_Discussion/81-6621-50_Year_Calgary_House_Price_View.html






Thanks Thomas for supplying the links to your previous research. That one must of skipped by me.



Using a regression to predict prices and then having actual values to quantify expectations is pretty cool.

I think I might set up predictor variables (population, interest rates, inventory level,accessibility, etc..) and regressed that with actual averages. There's a lot of due diligence I can do..but time is always an issue!!!!



Kir.
 
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