- Joined
- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,879
[quote user=TangoWhiskey]No one knows what the future holds but sooner or later a reversion to the mean for interest rates is in the cards.
Says who ?
The price of money, like cars or shampoo, is set by supply and demand. Supply by aging baby boomers and the government printing press is HIGH to VERY HIGH. These days, you don't even have to print anymore, you just have to "easy quantitativly" i.e. the central banks authorizes more money and boom, it is there.
Debt demand by governments will eventually shrink, as we start to see in Europe now as countries cannot afford it anymore. This deleveraging process will be slow and painful and will take a decade or 3.
[quote user=TangoWhiskey]Conservative leverage and cashflow will allow owners to survive the lag phase as interest rate increases eventually show up as reduced home ownership and rent growth.
I agree here wholeheartedly.
[quote user=TangoWhiskey]Higher inflation means higher rates.
Says who ?
High inflation means: high inflation, i.e. price for REAL stuff goes up, and as such value of UNREAL stuff, like money or wages or debt, goes down. Wages have not gone up meaningfully for 30 years in real terms, and actually shrunk in the last decade.
Thus, where do I invest in: in REAL stuff, such as REAL estate with income (both REITs Andrea buildings and a few houses and condos), land ( as they are not making any more, both some farmland as well as industrial or residential raw land to be developed at some future point), silver (cheaper than gold and real industrial use) and oil companies, initially with fairly hi, now with lower and lower leverage as I shift from wealth creation to wealth protection.
Says who ?
The price of money, like cars or shampoo, is set by supply and demand. Supply by aging baby boomers and the government printing press is HIGH to VERY HIGH. These days, you don't even have to print anymore, you just have to "easy quantitativly" i.e. the central banks authorizes more money and boom, it is there.
Debt demand by governments will eventually shrink, as we start to see in Europe now as countries cannot afford it anymore. This deleveraging process will be slow and painful and will take a decade or 3.
[quote user=TangoWhiskey]Conservative leverage and cashflow will allow owners to survive the lag phase as interest rate increases eventually show up as reduced home ownership and rent growth.
I agree here wholeheartedly.
[quote user=TangoWhiskey]Higher inflation means higher rates.
Says who ?
High inflation means: high inflation, i.e. price for REAL stuff goes up, and as such value of UNREAL stuff, like money or wages or debt, goes down. Wages have not gone up meaningfully for 30 years in real terms, and actually shrunk in the last decade.
Thus, where do I invest in: in REAL stuff, such as REAL estate with income (both REITs Andrea buildings and a few houses and condos), land ( as they are not making any more, both some farmland as well as industrial or residential raw land to be developed at some future point), silver (cheaper than gold and real industrial use) and oil companies, initially with fairly hi, now with lower and lower leverage as I shift from wealth creation to wealth protection.