Israel, Iran, Palestine, Oil and W-Canada Real Estate

[Thomas Beyer]

Just some thoughts on events happening far away from us .. but that impact our business directly:

1) new presidential election in Iran .. with hotly contested results ...
2) a right-wing Jewish PM`s speech on the Israel-Palestine Two-State solution ..

Netanyahu`s speech in Israel re 2 state solution (with a demilitarized Palestine and a recognition of Israel) here:
His speech

Essentially a proposal that Palestinians will not accept .. and as such will quarrel again for years … likely supported by Iran ..

[btw: Jerusalem Post is a good source for anything regarding Israel : www.jpost.com ]

I can only watch as an interested party .. and pray for peace .. but it means to me that the Middle East will not be quiet .. and as such oil prices will go UP … especially if the US or Europe do nothing regarding a nuclear Iran .. and Israel bombs its oil and nuclear infrastructure .. which (unfortunately) bodes well for Alberta, BC and SK !

Your thoughts here ?

 

[Stephen1151]

oops somthing isnt working here....anyway

Oil has been up for the last few months, but where are the jobs???
Oil anylists have been saying it should be from 50 - 70 $$ per barrel. Yet in Alberta Jobs are leaving average wage is declining as are rents and realestate prices. The goldmine scorecard seems to have reversed in some areas. Leaves me wondering what is going on???

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (stephen @ Jun 14 2009, 11:19 PM) oops somthing isnt working here....anyway

Oil has been up for the last few months, but where are the jobs???
Oil anylists have been saying it should be from 50 - 70 $$ per barrel. Yet in Alberta Jobs are leaving average wage is declining as are rents and realestate prices. The goldmine scorecard seems to have reversed in some areas. Leaves me wondering what is going on???
oil price and stock market rises FIRST .. then job picture will follow with a 6-9 month lag !!

 

[rico67]

QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Jun 15 2009, 08:56 AM) oil price and stock market rises FIRST .. then job picture will follow with a 6-9 month lag !!


yes this very true hang tough and keep on buying cash flow proerty , this is the best time.

rico

 

[housingrental]

I think an attack from Israel on Iran is incredibly unlikely. It would create a larger regional battle. Israel has nothing to gain from this and politically is too fractured for anyone to get this in action. Also the only chance of this ever happening is with USA`s OK which isn`t going to happen.

The middle east isn`t, and hasn`t been quiet... Nothing has changed recently and its been an improvement over the last few years.

My thoughts - What you`ve listed has no material impact on oil prices... more meaningless words...(err there`s, not yours..)


QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Jun 14 2009, 09:54 PM) Just some thoughts on events happening far away from us .. but that impact our business directly:

1) new presidential election in Iran .. with hotly contested results ...
2) a right-wing Jewish PM`s speech on the Israel-Palestine Two-State solution ..

Netanyahu`s speech in Israel re 2 state solution (with a demilitarized Palestine and a recognition of Israel) here:
His speech

Essentially a proposal that Palestinians will not accept .. and as such will quarrel again for years … likely supported by Iran ..

[btw: Jerusalem Post is a good source for anything regarding Israel : www.jpost.com ]

I can only watch as an interested party .. and pray for peace .. but it means to me that the Middle East will not be quiet .. and as such oil prices will go UP … especially if the US or Europe do nothing regarding a nuclear Iran .. and Israel bombs its oil and nuclear infrastructure .. which (unfortunately) bodes well for Alberta, BC and SK !

Your thoughts here ?

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (housingrental @ Jun 15 2009, 03:54 PM) I think an attack from Israel on Iran is incredibly unlikely. It would create a larger regional battle. Israel has nothing to gain from this and politically is too fractured for anyone to get this in action. Also the only chance of this ever happening is with USA`s OK which isn`t going to happen.

The middle east isn`t, and hasn`t been quiet... Nothing has changed recently and its been an improvement over the last few years.

My thoughts - What you`ve listed has no material impact on oil prices... more meaningless words...(err there`s, not yours..)
I think 3 things will have an influence on oil prices:
a) an UNSTABLE Iran with 1/3 of the (mainly younger) population protesting .. and
b) an Israel-Palestine conflict means more INSTABILITY in the region .. and
c) a potentially nuclear Iran will have a major power impact on the middle east incl. Saudi Arabia .. (Sunni`s vs. Shiites ..)

thus potential disruption of oil pipelines or oil infrastructure or Straight of Hormuz .. not necessarily a real disruption but the potential .. hence a risk premium will be placed on oil ..

 

[DOZAH]

QUOTE (housingrental @ Jun 15 2009, 02:54 PM) I think an attack from Israel on Iran is incredibly unlikely. It would create a larger regional battle. Israel has nothing to gain from this and politically is too fractured for anyone to get this in action. Also the only chance of this ever happening is with USA`s OK which isn`t going to happen.

The middle east isn`t, and hasn`t been quiet... Nothing has changed recently and its been an improvement over the last few years.

My thoughts - What you`ve listed has no material impact on oil prices... more meaningless words...(err there`s, not yours..)



How can an attack from Israel on Iran be highly unlikely?
Iran has an insanely aggressive world changing nuclear program in it`s middle/late stages. They continuously threaten Israel with extreme force many times calling for the full destruction of the Jewish state. Ahmadinijad has claimed many times that "Israel should be wiped off the map".

How can Israel not attack the Iranian nuclear sites? Are they going to wait to get nuked first?
If I run the free and democratic state of Israel I attack Iran and it`s nuclear sites extremely hard and aggressively NOW regardless of whether or not the U.S. is a joint force in the attack.
You can not allow an unstable dictator like Ahmadinijad to obtain nuclear capabilities. Thats the worst thing the world can experience.

We`ve had enough wars in the past 10 years but Iran must be dealt with promptly and aggressively. Obviously economic sanctions have had no effect on them or their willingness to negotiate peacefully.

Ask yourselves this...

If Iran was threatening Canada with nukes and calling for the complete destruction of all Canadian would you not feel compelled to push our government to stop this? You think this Ahmadinijad is a joker with false threats?
Thats what the world thought about a certain tyrant name Adolf Hitler 60 years ago.

Would you want to take that chance again?

 

[housingrental]

I think your last line is great re risk premium - I`m not connecting the dots though of how they`ll be a material increase in price from this - I`d assume a supply shock from these types of risks have been priced in for already. New weather development ? Missiles being launched? Then another run up from concern of risk.. Nothing`s just recently just amount of $$ flowing in and out of oil (and USA currency fluctuations)

QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Jun 15 2009, 07:00 PM) I think 3 things will have an influence on oil prices:
a) an UNSTABLE Iran with 1/3 of the (mainly younger) population protesting .. and
b) an Israel-Palestine conflict means more INSTABILITY in the region .. and
c) a potentially nuclear Iran will have a major power impact on the middle east incl. Saudi Arabia .. (Sunni`s vs. Shiites ..)

thus potential disruption of oil pipelines or oil infrastructure or Straight of Hormuz .. not necessarily a real disruption but the potential .. hence a risk premium will be placed on oil ..

 

[housingrental]

Thanks Dozah !

For ease of readability I`ve responded beside your questions in red.


QUOTE (DOZAH @ Jun 15 2009, 10:01 PM) How can an attack from Israel on Iran be highly unlikely? Nothing to gain, lots to lose.

Iran has an insanely aggressive world changing nuclear program in it`s middle/late stages. They continuously threaten Israel with extreme force many times calling for the full destruction of the Jewish state. Ahmadinijad has claimed many times that "Israel should be wiped off the map" Political theatre not a real threat!! Hence no attack on Israel anytime recently..

How can Israel not attack the Iranian nuclear sites? The same way they`ve not bombed Iran`s military installations...

Are they going to wait to get nuked first? They likely don`t beleive there`s a threat of them being nuked.

If I run the free and democratic state of Israel I attack Iran and it`s nuclear sites extremely hard and aggressively NOW regardless of whether or not the U.S. is a joint force in the attack. And risk a larger regional conflict? And possible reprucussions with relations with USA ? The Israel government doesn`t want 1000 of its citizens dead from attacks near Syria even if they take out 10 000 Syrians and all there infrastructure... r

You can not allow an unstable dictator like Ahmadinijad to obtain nuclear capabilities. Thats the worst thing the world can experience. Why do you think he`s unstable ? Seems like a rational actor to me

We`ve had enough wars in the past 10 years but Iran must be dealt with promptly and aggressively. Obviously economic sanctions have had no effect on them or their willingness to negotiate peacefully. But unilaterly bombing them without provication is going to be a big push to get something from them ?

Ask yourselves this...

If Iran was threatening Canada with nukes and calling for the complete destruction of all Canadian would you not feel compelled to push our government to stop this? Yes. But if the threats were not legitimate, certainly not through bombing them !

You think this Ahmadinijad is a joker with false threats? False threats yes. Joker no. He`s seems to be a good politician.

Thats what the world thought about a certain tyrant name Adolf Hitler 60 years ago. Not relevant. Ahmandinijad doesn`t have that type of power, ability to obtain it, or seething rascism.

Would you want to take that chance again? Strawman