B.C. to blame for lowered expectations
B.C. saw some of the biggest post-recession rebounds in real estate markets, so a recent cooling of sales in the province is a big reason the Canadian Real Estate Association revised its national housing market forecast to reflect lower sales and an easing of prices.
CREA, in its revised forecast released Wednesday, estimated B.C. sales will decrease almost six per cent to 80,000 transactions this year, a dramatic shift from the 101,900 sales in its initial forecast released in February.
Average prices, CREA estimates, will edge up 2.3 per cent this year to $476,400 before slipping back 3.5 per cent in 2011.
Nationally, CREA expects 490,600 sales through its Multiple Listing Service this year, a 5.5 per cent jump from 2009 and the second-highest number on record, but substantially off the 527,300 transactions it anticipated in its February forecast.
In a statement, CREA noted the revision "reflects a weaker-than-expected start to the year" in B.C. and developments in the mortgage market that pushed purchasers to buy homes sooner rather than later.
"They changed their forecast based on how much things have slowed down very recently," Tsur Somerville, a commerce professor at the University of B.C., said in an interview.
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