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May 2015 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for May 2015.
 

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Sturgeon Refinery will provide good value upgrading Alberta bitumen, head of North West upgrading says

REDWATER - North West Upgrading Inc.’s Ian MacGregor is taking pains to correct a claim in an academic paper that the Alberta government will pay $63 per barrel to process bitumen at the Sturgeon Refinery.

The actual processing cost will be less than $35 per barrel and the business case for the refinery remains strong, MacGregor, North West Upgrading’s president and CEO, told an audience of business people and politicians Friday.

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Are housing experts being narrow minded again? Why they shouldn't overlook a rapid rebound in Alberta

Part of my duties as Senior Vice President at Fortress Real Developments is to prepare both micro and macro level studies for clients and partners, as well as give presentations on the housing market to real estate investors, brokers, and prospective homebuyers. I published a robust 50-page report on the Canadian housing market - The Market Manuscript, which is available for free on our website. In the recent Manuscript, there was extensive focus on the Alberta market, which included a section that looked at the long-term relationship between oil prices and new house prices.

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You can walk away from your mortgage in Alberta, but should you?

“At the time it seemed cheaper. I didn’t want to spend money on rent. But now I think I can find something cheaper to rent,” says Francis, who asked that his last name not be used.

He bought the home for $175,000 with a five per cent downpayment but still owes $150,000 on his mortgage. He says the market for his home has collapsed in his town and a realtor just told him the best price he could expect is $75,000.

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Calgary home sales plummet while Vancouver's market soars

Home sales in Calgary fell 22 per cent in April from last year as the crude price shock continues to rattle buyers in the oil-rich city. Meanwhile, sales continue to grow by double digits in the country’s two hottest markets, highlighting how different Canadian cities can be when it comes to real estate trends.

In the opening months of 2015, sales dropped 33 per cent in Calgary while new listings flooded the market as sellers scrambled to get in before the impact of lower oil prices took full effect.


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Demographics behind new high-rise rental in Edmonton

Oxford expects to expand its investment in rental housing from $1.4 billion to $2.2 billion; roughly a quarter of this will be in the form of developing new rental properties. Shifting preference for new construction is generated partially from investment demand, which has driven up prices of existing inventory that is older and dated in design and appearance. (Image: Edgar Developments, The Hendrix Apartment, Edmonton)

Economic feasibility of new construction has become more favourable with the forecast of higher rents and lower operating costs.

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Calgary downtown office market hit hard by oil slump

Just how bad has the tide turned for Calgary’s downtown office market due to the slump in oil prices?

With more than 1.7 million square feet of unoccupied office space added to the market in the past two quarters, the core has already eclipsed its worst year for absorption (the change in occupied space) on record, according to a new report by Newmark Knight Frank Devencore.

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Alberta's housing sector is hurting, but it's no 1980's flashback

OTTAWA - The oil slump is sure to bruise Alberta's housing market, but don't expect real estate in the province to absorb another 1980s-style drubbing, says an internal federal government analysis.

The Department of Finance compared the potential real-estate fallout in Alberta — a result of the late-2014 collapse in oil prices — with the pain inflicted on the provincial market during the deep recession of the early 1980s.

The document was released to The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act at a time when economic concerns are top of mind for Albertans as they prepare to head to the polls for Tuesday's provincial election.

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Fort Mac: Despite election shock in Alberta, Canada's remote boomtown thunders on

Forty-one years ago, Robert Vargo spent $6,000 to buy a car-repair shop on a dusty road in an empty corner of sub-arctic Canada. Today, Alberta Motor Products in Fort McMurray is the largest General Motors dealer in western Canada, in some months selling more vehicles than any other dealer in the entire country.

For those hardy enough to venture so far north, the tarry soil of the Athabasca River valley runs thick with milk and honey. It may take four showers for an oil-sands worker to remove the smell from his body, but there’s always more than enough money in his jeans to buy a fancy new 4x4.

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Alberta's job market holding up, despite oil bust

For months now, economists have expected Alberta's job market to roll over. There have been multiple public announcements of large job losses, and many more layoffs that have happened under the radar, heard about from friends and family.

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Alberta pumps out jobs in spite of oil plunge

Nearly 20,000 jobs disappeared across the Canadian economy in April, the biggest drop in eight months, even though the unemployment rate remained at 6.8 per cent as many people stopped looking for work.

The average forecast by economists was for a much smaller net loss of 5,000 positions last month, after a gain of 28,700 jobs in March, as the country’s labour force continued its see-saw pattern between losses and gains.

In February, for example, the economy lost 1,000 workers overall after adding about 35,000 jobs in the previous month.

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Edmonton’s 1,300 lost jobs in April a sign of things to come says city’s chief economist

EDMONTON - The 1,300 jobs lost in the Edmonton region in April could be a harbinger of things to come, says the City of Edmonton’s chief economist.

“While we’ll see some months over the course of 2015 where we do see some job gains, I’m expecting that the unemployment rate is going to move up fairly significantly,” John Rose said Friday.

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Car-free condo proposal suggests urban cultural shift

Kiefer MacKenzie lives downtown and gets around using bikes, Calgary Transit or car-sharing services. He loves the urban lifestyle, but he says Calgary’s public transportation system limits where he can go and when, and most business in the downtown core close when commuters go home.

That’s why MacKenzie is excited about a proposal in Calgary’s rapidly growing East Village for a parking-free condo development, which is going to city council for final approval on Monday. The car-free condo may have raised eyebrows in an automobile-loving city when originally proposed, but it appeals to MacKenzie, a 25-year-old senior sustainability consultant, and an increasing number of millennials like him who are embracing a lifestyle with minimal driving.

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Shh don't tell but major pipelines are being built: Opposing Keystone, forgetting the rest

Everyone remembers the Keystone XL pipeline. It was the most contentious issue in Canada-U.S. relations in almost a decade. The multi-billion dollar project was vilified as an environmental and moral atrocity for its goal of transporting some 830,000 barrels per day of oil sands oil from Alberta to the American Midwest by everyone from Desmond Tutu to Robert Redford. But since President Obama vetoed a Republican bill that would have allowed the pipeline to proceed three months ago, the whole issue has disappeared off the radar screen faster than you could say Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.

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What the $500m Royal Dutch Shell arctic approval means for Canada (be aware Alberta Government)

TORONTO – Royal Dutch Shell’s return to the U.S. Arctic plus $500 million of additional funding from the Canadian government amps up the prospects of oil and gas development in the Beaufort Sea, according to David Ramsay, who oversees the oil and gas sector in the Northwest Territories.

The NWT had asked Ottawa to raise its borrowing limit from $800 million to $1.8 billion, but was granted $500 million in the federal budget announced in April.

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Don't be surprised if NDP election in Alberta draws them into a national securities regulator

The NDP’s landmark victory in the Alberta election may provide an opportunity for a shift in attitude toward joining a national cooperative securities regulator – yielding a significant consolation prize for the federal Conservative government.

While Finance Minister Joe Oliver pushes forward toward the elusive dream of unveiling a national securities regulator by the fall of 2016, some industry observers believe Alberta under an NDP government may no longer be the “uncrackable vault” that holds the key to creating a federal-provincial cooperative securities regulator.

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OPEC: Oil prices to stay below $100/Barrel for next decade

Oil prices will stay below $100 per barrel at least until 2025, according to a draft of OPEC's latest strategy report seen by the Wall Street Journal. The report seen by the paper is a draft presented at an OPEC strategy meeting in Vienna last week.

"$100 Is Not In Any Of The Scenarios"
The report's most optimistic scenario forecasts that oil prices will be around $76/bbl in 2025- manifesting OPEC's concerns that US competitors will be able to cope with low prices and increase production.

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Oil prices may be down, but Edmonton is rising

There is more than one million square feet of land under construction in downtown Edmonton right now — and that’s not including proposed projects.

“We have more cranes in the sky than any other city, other than Toronto, right now,” said Jim Taylor, president of the Downtown Business Association, on Thursday.

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Brian Topp behind BC NDP opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline, 2013 election defeat

If Rachel Notley wanted to send a message to Albertans, appointing Quebec-born, Toronto-based federal NDP hack Brian Topp as her chief of staff did the trick quite nicely.

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Calgary tentatively approves legalizing secondary suites in the inner-city

Calgary took a small but significant step toward making secondary suites legal in a large swath of the inner city on Tuesday night, following hours of passionate debate involving dozens of citizens on both sides of the issue.

City council gave first reading to a bylaw that would make the controversial dwellings legal – by default – in Wards 7, 8, 9 and 11, which together constitute a major chunk of the city’s central area.

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