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- Aug 30, 2007
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Numerous articles have been published in the media about doom and gloom in Alberta, first due to low oil prices and now due to the NDP being now in power until 2019. I too am not a friend of left leaning tax and spend governments (to put it mildly) as they usually reduce private investment appetite while cranking up public spending, increasing taxes and resulting in bloated governments. All of this is what I expect here in Alberta, in full force in 2016 and 2017, and as such a massive deficit and debt accumulation likely exceeding $50B in 2019, disguised as investment into the future, diversification, health and education.
I expect numerous headwind for Alberta:
a) low oil prices, likely in the $60 (maybe over $70) range for the next few years due to large worldwide supply
b) higher taxes placed upon Albertans, thus less after-tax money to spend on housing or stuff to buy
c) uncertainty on royalty review, thus muted investments in oil & gas
d) many layoffs to come due to finishing construction projects
e) higher regulations placed on oil & gas producers
f) uncertainty about pipelines and government policies
g) rent controls
The only saving grace might be far higher oil prices than expected, say $80+ or $100 in Can$ due to a weak loonie and heavy spending on infrastructure by this new (and very inexperienced) government creating many jobs in infrastructre or refineries (at the expense of massive deficit and debt, though).
Oil prices might pop $80 sooner than expected : http://business.financialpost.com/n...-more-than-it-pumps-by-year-end-analysts-warn
The question is: what does this mean for real estate for Alberta? We have already seen reports by CMHC that house prices in Calgary have dropped somewhat. Not much, but lower than last year. We have not seen that in Edmonton yet as Edmonton is far more diversified with more government and healthcare and Canada's second biggest university.
We also have not seen higher vacancies in our buildings (in Calgary, Red Deer or Edmonton) nor lower rents, as more people rent and wait for house prices to recover or to see if their job is safe. As such I expect rental properties to be flat to maybe slightly up, but nothing overly. I expect industrial activity, new home and condo construction to come way down in 2016 and 2017 and office vacancies to go way up. As such I expect house and condo prices to decline further, maybe another 5% or even 10%, with emerging buying opportunities in 2017, perhaps earlier. I expect rents to be flat or slightly up perhaps, not like the 10% year-over-year growth we've seen over the last 4 years from 2010 to 2014.
A good time to hold with a cash-flow cushion, but buying in Alberta needs to be seen in light of increased risk, i.e. higher CAP rates or lower prices in my opinion.
Even with a debt creating and big government high spend NDP government Alberta will do well. Not as well as $100 oil nor as well as with disciplined conservative leadership but still well enough to own cash flowing real estate there and prosper as well, or better, than other parts of Canada !
So, what, if any, is your view on Alberta real estate for the next 4 years, nuanced by asset class perhaps ?
I expect numerous headwind for Alberta:
a) low oil prices, likely in the $60 (maybe over $70) range for the next few years due to large worldwide supply
b) higher taxes placed upon Albertans, thus less after-tax money to spend on housing or stuff to buy
c) uncertainty on royalty review, thus muted investments in oil & gas
d) many layoffs to come due to finishing construction projects
e) higher regulations placed on oil & gas producers
f) uncertainty about pipelines and government policies
g) rent controls
The only saving grace might be far higher oil prices than expected, say $80+ or $100 in Can$ due to a weak loonie and heavy spending on infrastructure by this new (and very inexperienced) government creating many jobs in infrastructre or refineries (at the expense of massive deficit and debt, though).
Oil prices might pop $80 sooner than expected : http://business.financialpost.com/n...-more-than-it-pumps-by-year-end-analysts-warn
The question is: what does this mean for real estate for Alberta? We have already seen reports by CMHC that house prices in Calgary have dropped somewhat. Not much, but lower than last year. We have not seen that in Edmonton yet as Edmonton is far more diversified with more government and healthcare and Canada's second biggest university.
We also have not seen higher vacancies in our buildings (in Calgary, Red Deer or Edmonton) nor lower rents, as more people rent and wait for house prices to recover or to see if their job is safe. As such I expect rental properties to be flat to maybe slightly up, but nothing overly. I expect industrial activity, new home and condo construction to come way down in 2016 and 2017 and office vacancies to go way up. As such I expect house and condo prices to decline further, maybe another 5% or even 10%, with emerging buying opportunities in 2017, perhaps earlier. I expect rents to be flat or slightly up perhaps, not like the 10% year-over-year growth we've seen over the last 4 years from 2010 to 2014.
A good time to hold with a cash-flow cushion, but buying in Alberta needs to be seen in light of increased risk, i.e. higher CAP rates or lower prices in my opinion.
Even with a debt creating and big government high spend NDP government Alberta will do well. Not as well as $100 oil nor as well as with disciplined conservative leadership but still well enough to own cash flowing real estate there and prosper as well, or better, than other parts of Canada !
So, what, if any, is your view on Alberta real estate for the next 4 years, nuanced by asset class perhaps ?
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