RBC Provincial Report

[wgraham]

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf

My take:

[list type=decimal][*]Saskatchewan continues to defy REIN! They didn`t go down as hard as Alberta and are coming back swinging! I guess only time will tell on this one but you have got to hand it to Sask. I am going to put this one squarely on political leadership. Sask is taking advantage of Alberta`s mistakes![*]Alberta investors may have a little more time to get in front of the wave than other provinces. This may be a good thing for some investors that are late to the party. 2010 will be OK but won`t be amazing and 2011 could be quite impressive.BC is going to be hit very shortly with the 2010 Games and then maybe have a little post party hang over.[/list type=decimal]Comments?

PS I wonder if Don is going to continue with the Tiger Wood`s analogy for Alberta.....seems kinda fitting
PPS I dislike the fact that everyone is over hyping this Tiger thing.....the dude goes from God like status to the Goat in days! It goes to show the mentality of the masses. So easily swayed by media. Very sad really!

 

[tonyla]

You mean goat the animal right. Not GOAT (greatest of all time), but both cases are true.

Sorry had to be picky

 

[MonteDobson]

QUOTE (wgraham @ Dec 14 2009, 01:37 PM) http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf

My take:

[list type=decimal][*]Saskatchewan continues to defy REIN! They didn`t go down as hard as Alberta and are coming back swinging! I guess only time will tell on this one but you have got to hand it to Sask. I am going to put this one squarely on political leadership. Sask is taking advantage of Alberta`s mistakes![*]Alberta investors may have a little more time to get in front of the wave than other provinces. This may be a good thing for some investors that are late to the party. 2010 will be OK but won`t be amazing and 2011 could be quite impressive.BC is going to be hit very shortly with the 2010 Games and then maybe have a little post party hang over.[/list type=decimal]Comments?
Hi Wade,

Thanks for the report...very interesting!

I am curious to REIN`s ongoing research and analysis of Saskatchewan? It still appears to be not even on the radar screen, even with this type of growth expected over the next couple of years. I look back to when we started buying very aggressively in 2006 in Alberta (mainly Grande Prairie and Edmonton - AB`s #1 & 2 towns at the time), and now our values are similar to slightly higher to when we bought.

Now I am by no means undermining any of the research, but when I compare SK cities such as Saskatoon, Regina and Yorkton to a place like Grande Prairie (which has gone from 0 to 10% or greater vacany rates, as well as significantly decreased cashflow), we would have been much better off buying here in SK than in GP given what has happened over the past 3 years, and what is expected to happen over the next 2-3 yrs.

And yes, there is a word I like to try and avoid called "hindsight", and we have to remember this is a LONG TERM game, but when you see these types of articles, it really makes you think about the investment decisions we made a few years ago.

That being said, I am still very pro-AB and it will rebound nicely in 2011 and beyond. We bought for cashflow so all is good, but it`s sure been a bumpy ride this past year, especially in a place like Grande Prairie.

Some further SK research would be appreciated!! Perhaps a Top 10 Western Canadian Town list would be an idea??

My 2 cents...

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (wgraham @ Dec 14 2009, 12:37 PM) ..Saskatchewan continues to defy REIN! .. with the Tiger Wood`s ..
Apparently Tiger Woods now has changed his name ..





to Cheetah !

We like SK as prices are often better much better than in AB (say 40% lower) with rents only 20% lower and with more rental upside.

Loads of oil, gas, uranium, potash and farmland .. plus small population base where 1000 immigrants make an impact on the stats even.

On the downside

a) taxes are higher as a % of value
b) gas is more expensive
c) friggin` cold in the winter and friggin` hot in summer
d) no mountains
e) no major tourism

But, better oil and gas royalties thus more incentives to drill/develop than in Alberta.

Overall, a great place to invest if the numbers make sense. Don`t overpay .. but certainly put it on your radar !

It is so flat .. the radar goes very far !

It is so flat .. if you look far enough west you can see the sun rise !!






..





In other words, you can moon yourself !

 

[Conrad5]

On Tiger Woods, I would say he is not the problem but the media is. He was just playing his game and the media went wild. He was a human and is still a human. We can`t put all the blame on him for how the media projected him. If we were to know what happens in the private lives of those who inspired us, those we consider superhuman, infallible etc, most of us would direct out fascinations elsewhere.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (caglah @ Dec 15 2009, 05:51 AM) On Tiger Woods, I would say he is not the problem but the media is. He was just playing his game and the media went wild. He was a human and is still a human. We can`t put all the blame on him for how the media projected him. If we were to know what happens in the private lives of those who inspired us, those we consider superhuman, infallible etc, most of us would direct out fascinations elsewhere.not quite .. at $100M/year in endorsements ship-shape behaviour on and off the golf course is expected as a role model ..

no role model .. just human: no endorsements .. pretty simple ..

re SK: we have done very well there and SK will do well .. but keep in mind: IT IS SMALL .. smaller than Calgary .. smaller than Edmonton .. 50% smaller than lower mainland .. essentially a sub-urb of GTA !

 

[Emil1753]

I`d absolutely love to see new research done about SK by REIN team.

 

[greg12]

I think that REIN’s strategy is to be cautious and “let speculators take the riskiest dollars off the table”. But even Don encourages us to question everything REIN says. To use BC’s top town (Surrey) as an example, REIN’s research gave the green light once all the easy cash flow was gone and property prices had at least quadrupled. The best strategy for any diligent investor is to use REIN’s information as a starting point (not the “be all end all”) and go do your own more specific research before making an investment decision. By the time REIN’s SK research comes out, you’ll be surprised that all it will do is confirm what you have always known.



QUOTE (Platinum @ Dec 15 2009, 11:00 PM) I`d absolutely love to see new research done about SK by REIN team.