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September 2010 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

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New articles for September 2010.
 

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Grim Price outlook unwelcome news for natural gas industry

A U.S. natural gas rig count that refuses to die and roaring supply inventories paint a bleak picture for prices into 2012, according to a Calgary-based investment brokerage.

FirstEnergy Capital Corp. slashed its 2011 natural gas price forecast by a dollar Monday, telling investors to jump the North American ship in favour of opportunities overseas.

Too much supply and not enough demand have made the resource -- once the bread and butter of Alberta government coffers -- a sinking ship, according to analyst Martin King.

"With this interim price forecast update we are effectively abandoning hope that any price recovery on the scale that we had been previously forecasting for late 2010 and 2011 will come to pass," King said in an early morning report.

The Calgary-based analyst slashed his 2011 natural gas price forecast by a dollar to average $4.75 US per million British thermal units.

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Study shows oil sands polluting Alberta river system

CALGARY, Alberta - Oil sands operations are polluting the Athabasca River system, researchers said Monday, contradicting the Alberta government`s assertions that toxins in the watershed are naturally occurring.

In a study likely to add more fuel to the environmental battle over oil sands development, researchers said mercury, arsenic, lead and cadmium are among the toxins being released into the Athabasca, which flows north through the region`s major oil sands operations.

The findings of the study, co-authored by University of Alberta biological scientists Erin Kelly and David Schindler, should be a signal for the Alberta government to finally consider limits on oil sands development, Schindler said.

"I really think it`s time to cut down the expansion until some of those problems and how to reduce them are solved," he said in an interview.

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Buyers gain edge on Edmonton resale housing

EDMONTON — Expect a buyer`s market for Edmonton-area resale homes in the remainder of 2010 with more balanced conditions next year, says a new report released Tuesday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

The average resale home price in the Edmonton census metropolitan area will still increase by 3.9 per cent this year compared with last year, but total MLS sales will fall by 11.2 per cent, said the report.

CMHC forecasts Edmonton area MLS sales to slide to 17,000 in 2010, with the average sale price at $333,000, up from $320,378 last year, says CMHC`s second quarter Housing Market Outlook.

Heavy demand in the first half of 2010 boosted the Edmonton area`s average MLS resale price, but prices are now moderating in the second half, CMHC regional economist Lai Sing Louie said.

Edmonton, like Alberta`s other major centres except Wood Buffalo, are now buyer`s markets as recent price growth attracted more listings while demand slowed, Louie said.

"It was in balanced market conditions at the beginning of the year and it`s in buyer`s market conditions right now," Louie said.

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Alberta`s jobless rolls still dropping, bucking national trend

EDMONTON — The ranks of the jobless fell in Alberta in July, countering a nation-wide unemployment rate jump, thanks to an economy that added 9,000 jobs from the previous month, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

Alberta`s unemployment rate fell to 6.3 per cent from 6.7 per cent in June, while the Canadian rate rose to 8.0 per cent from 7.9 per cent in June thanks to the net loss of 9,300 jobs.

The improving trend was more pronounced in Calgary, where the jobless rate fell to 6.9 per cent in July from 7.5 per cent in June. Edmonton`s rate was also 6.9 per cent, down from 7.1 per cent in June.

Nationally, the pace of recovery showed signs of slowing.

StatsCan said 139,000 full-time jobs were lost during the month, while 129,700 part-time positions were created.

"In July, employment decreased in educational services and in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing. At the same time, there were increases in manufacturing and public administration.," it said.

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Alberta top province for earnings

Albertans continue to enjoy the highest average weekly earnings of all provinces in the country.

According to data released Thursday by Statistics Canada, average weekly earnings including overtime for non-farm payroll employees rose in June in the province to $1,003.53. That was up 1.9 per cent from May and by 5.2 per cent from June 2009.

Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary, wrote in a research note that not only are Albertans seeing higher earnings this summer, but "inflation is eating away at it very slowly."

"Comparing Alberta to other provinces may be interesting, but what is really important is how the growth in earnings compares to the rate of price increases," said Hirsch.

General annual consumer price inflation is "extremely tame" in Alberta at 0.6 per cent in June, he added.

Elsbeth Mehrer, manager of workforce development for Calgary Economic Development, said average weekly earnings remained high throughout the economic downturn of last year.

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Edmonton employers optimistic

EDMONTON - Optimism among Edmonton-area employers has taken a major upswing, according to a survey of hiring intentions.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today says 20 per cent of employers plan to hire for the upcoming fourth quarter, from October to December. Zero per cent anticipate cuts; 74 per cent expect to maintain current levels and six per cent are unsure of their plans.

Edmonton`s net employment outlook of 20 (the percentage of employers planning to hire minus the percentage laying off) is a rebound from the same time last year as well as from the third quarter, when employers reported outlooks of nine per cent. In the second quarter, the net outlook was only four per cent.

"It`s not different than the message we`re seeing nationally, where the net employment is 14," said Randy Upright, CEO of the staffing company`s Alberta region. "The conditions have remained steady. ... We`ve come to accept the new norm of the economy being where it`s at, and employers are continuing to get on with their business."

Upright said it`s unusual for no employers to report planned layoffs.

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Lacombe looks to bright future as Alberta`s newest city

EDMONTON — A new city was born in Alberta over the Labour Day weekend, as Lacombe shed the town status it had enjoyed for more than 100 years.

Lacombe becomes the 17th city in the province. It has been five years since a new city was added to that list.

Premier Ed Stelmach is scheduled to join Mayor Judy Gordon today to unveil a plaque commemorating the City of Lacombe, after the status change was made official Sept. 5.

"Moving to city status shows that we are progressive and thinking of the future," Gordon said, adding she believes the status will attract commerce, commercial endeavours and industry. "I think we could look forward to a very bright future and celebrating our status."

Before the status change was approved in July, several open houses and questionnaires were conducted to get public input, which found about 93 per cent of respondents in favour of taking the step.

"The majority of people I talked to were very much in favour of it and were quite excited by it," Gordon said.

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Construction has begun on Edmonton`s waste-to-biofuels facility

Construction has started on the world`s first industrial scale municipal waste-to-biofuels facility.

The $80 million facility will be built, owned and operated by Enerkem Alberta Biofuels and will produce 36 million litres of biofuels a year and reduce Alberta`s carbon dioxide (CO2) footprint by six million tonnes over the next 25 years—the equivalent of removing 42,000 cars off the road every year.

Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel and Enerkem Chief Executive Officer, Vincent Chornet participated in the groundbreaking event.

The waste-to-biofuels facility is expected to be operational in late 2011. It will convert 100,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste into biofuels annually. It will create over 50 permanent direct and indirect jobs and will contribute to the federal and provincial renewable fuel standards. The feedstock for producing biofuels is municipal solid waste that cannot be recycled or composted and has traditionally been sent to landfill.

"Alberta is an energy province," said Premier Ed Stelmach. "This project is another example of how our government is helping develop leading-edge renewable and non-renewable energy technology. I applaud the vision and dedication the partners have shown to make this pioneering project a reality."

"Edmonton`s environmental leadership has us continually looking to set the bar higher," said Edmonton Mayor, Stephen Mandel. "As a result of this facility, we will become the first major city in North America to see 90 per cent of residential waste diverted from landfill by 2013. This is a major achievement, and a big step towards a greener Edmonton! Thanks to all our partners whose innovation and commitment to sustainability are helping to reduce our carbon footprint."

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Red Deer Permit Values steadily Increase

(Red Deer, Alberta) – Residential permit values continue to rise showing an increase of 6.3 per cent, as compared to August 2009. Contributing to this increase was a permit issued to J2K Inc. for the construction of an apartment building at 3715 – 51 Avenue, at a construction value of $1.3 million.

While commercial permit values show a decrease over August, industrial permit values are up $8 million for the year to date, due significantly to a permit issued to Camdon Construction for an addition to Quinn`s Pumps at 4080 – 77 Street, valued at $6.9 million. Other contributing industrial permits were to Phoenix Construction for an addition to the sandblasting shop for Badger Daylighting at 6740 – 65 Avenue valued at $405,000 and to CSI Projects Ltd. for office space for Parkland Geo at 4756 Riverside Drive valued at $400,000.

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Calgary unemployment dips as 900 jobs added in city

CALGARY -- On the day news came out that Calgary`s unemployment rate fell in August and more jobs were created during the month, many job seekers were taking in a hiring fair to fill hundreds of positions resulting from the Chinook Centre expansion.

The latest economic data was positive news for job seekers such as Hai Banks, 29, who moved to Calgary three months ago from the U.K.

"It`s been quite difficult to find a job here," she said. "I find that people have a job by good connections."

Statistics Canada reported Friday that the Calgary census metropolitan area saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.7 per cent in August from 6.9 per cent in July.

The region also added 900 jobs from the previous month. It was a different story on the provincial level as the unemployment rate rose to 6.5 per cent from 6.3 per cent in July and Alberta lost 4,700 jobs.

Jeremy Stubler, 24, recently moved to Calgary from Winnipeg to attend the University of Calgary. He has been looking for a job to help pay the bills for the school year. He too was at the hiring fair, which was being put on by Alberta Employment and Immigration and Cadillac Fairview. The hiring fair is also taking place Sept. 14 to 15 at the Labour Market Information Centre at Fisher Park Place, 6172 Fisher St. S.E.

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Energy to fuel Alberta growth

Alberta`s economy is gradually recovering from last year`s sharp contraction and GDP growth for this year and next is forecast to be among the highest in the country.

The latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook report, released Friday, said economic growth in the province will be 3.5 per cent this year, reversing the estimated 4.5 per cent drop in 2009 during the recession, and 4.3 per cent in 2011.

Strong growth in the province is largely credited to energy-related activity. In particular, Alberta`s oil and gas sector is making a comeback amid improved market conditions and recent changes in the province`s royalty regime that have restored Alberta`s royalty competitiveness, said the report.

"Strong sales of crown lands for oil and gas development indicate a renewed desire to develop Alberta`s oil and gas resources -- land acreage more than doubled during the first seven months of this year and land value climbed nearly eleven-fold," said Craig Wright, chief economist for RBC. "This rebound signals greater strength in oil and gas drilling going forward."

The GDP forecast of 3.5 per cent is higher than RBC`s previous forecast of 3.1 per cent. And with the economic recovery expected to be more broadly based next year, RBC is forecasting growth at 4.3 per cent in 2011, which is up marginally from its 4.2 per cent forecast from June.

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Hopes rise for new Calgary arena as Harper hints at cash for sports venues

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says his government is stickhandling with the idea of funding the construction of professional sports venues in cities across Canada, recognizing any financial support for Quebec City must be matched across the country.

The prime minister`s musings were welcomed by the Calgary Flames, who plan to make a pitch for public support for a new arena -- one the team hopes will be under construction within three years.

The funding blocker, however, was thrown out by the Stelmach government, with the premier maintaining the province won`t help build new arenas for the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers.

The mixed financial messages were the latest twists in a week that has seen sports arenas dominate the political arena.

But as momentum builds for a new rink in Quebec City -- and for Ottawa to cough up $175 million in the process -- the Alberta Tory government is reminding its federal cousins that what`s good for la belle province is also good for Wild Rose Country.

With speculation mounting the federal Conservatives will fork over the requested $175 million, Harper said Thursday his government will never directly fund professional sports franchises

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Calgary leads all other cities in median family income

OTTAWA — Calgary led all other metropolitan areas in median-family income, followed by Edmonton and Ottawa-Gatineau, according to data derived from 2008 personal income-tax returns, Statistics Canada said Thursday.

The largest percentage increases in median-family income were recorded in Saskatoon, up 4.1 per cent, St. John`s, up four per cent, and Greater Sudbury, Ont., up 3.9 per cent.

The largest dollar increases were also recorded in St. John`s, up 4.1 per cent, and Saskatoon, up 3.8 per cent.

Families in Calgary brought in $91,570 in 2008, well ahead of the Canadian average of $68,860, the federal agency reported.

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Oilsands a `national treasure,` says U.S. senator after tour

When South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham toured some of Alberta`s vast oilsands projects Friday, one thing immediately came to mind: "massive."

The Republican senator`s assessment is increasingly coming to summarize not only the size of the development, but also the importance of the oilsands and energy file to the Canada-U. S. trade relationship.

Premier Ed Stelmach led Graham and fellow U.S. senators Kay Hagan, a Democrat from North Carolina, and Georgia Republican Saxby Chambliss on a tour of some of the province`s oilsands developments, including Syncrude`s mining facility and Nexen`s Long Lake in situ project.

"There`s tremendous potential up here to produce oil for Canada and the United States in large quantities that will make my country safer by not having to buy Mideast oil," Graham said in an interview.

The senator called Alberta "a national treasure for Canada and the United States," pledging he`s "full-speed ahead" on expanding the amount of oilsands crude flowing across the border each day.

He believes the attacks on the oilsands -- the second-largest proven oil reserves in the world -- are "misplaced," and the footprint from mining projects is exaggerated.

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Signs of buyers` market emerge in Calgary real estate sector

CALGARY - One in five Alberta repeat homebuyers are going house hunting for homes they don`t plan to live in, says a report released today.

Compared to other Canadians, Albertans are twice as likely to be looking for a vacation home (13 per cent versus five per cent nationally) and another six per cent are looking to buy a rental property, said the TD Canada Trust Repeat Home Buyers Report, which surveyed Canadians who have either purchased or intend to purchase a home that was not their first home.

"In Alberta, we`ve seen a buyers` market develop and many repeat buyers have been able to take advantage of opportunities because of the equity they`ve built in their current home," said Jessy Bilodeau, Calgary-based, Mobile Mortgage Specialist with TD Canada Trust. "Many Alberta homeowners have paid off their mortgage, giving them the freedom to take advantage of opportunities in the market."

Albertans are most likely in the country to own their current home without a mortgage (41 per cent vs. 32 per cent).

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$2B Oilsands expansion approved

EDMONTON — Cenovus Energy`s Foster Creek underground oilsands project has won approval for an estimated $2-billion expansion that will see 1,000 construction jobs created at the site 120 kilometres north of Bonnyville.

The Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board approval announced Monday covers the next three phases of expansion (F, G and H) for Alberta`s oldest and largest steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project.

"We will continue building the project in phases, making improvements with each one," spokeswoman Rhona DelFrari said.

Engineering on Phase F is already underway and preliminary ground work is expected to start soon.

Cenovus has its own construction management team, and the "cookie cutter" approach to the modules for each phase has resulted in industry-leading efficiencies.

Cenovus, which constructs the modules at its Nisku facility, estimates the development cost of its SAGD projects at about $22,000 per barrel of capacity.

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Calgary to lead nation in economic growth

CALGARY - Calgary is forecast to lead the nation in economic growth in the period between 2011 and 2014, according to the Conference Board of Canada.

In its Metropolitan Outlook report released today, the board said Calgary suffered through a significant downturn last year with the effects of the global financial crisis resulting in Real Gross Domestic Product declining by 4.5 per cent.

The board said Calgary`s economy will rebound this year with 3.5 per cent growth then average 4.2 per cent growth each year between 2011 and 2014.

"For this year, like a lot of other cities in the country, Calgary had a great start to the year. A great ending to 2009, a great start to 2010," said Greg Sutherland, senior economist with the board. "However, we are seeing some slow down recently. Housing is kind of slowed a bit. Retail activity has slowed a bit. The second half of the year is looking more moderate than the first half."

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Fort McMurray home prices outpace Calgary and Edmonton

A snapshot survey of four-bedroom, two-bathroom home listings in Canada and the United States shows Fort McMurray outpacing both Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta for this specific residential real estate market.

The Home Listing Report by Coldwell Banker Real Estate said the average price for this "aspirational" home is $593, 390 in Fort McMurray because of its booming job market.

Calgary`s average was $551,920 while Edmonton came in at $452,628.

The survey reported on a home size many homeowners would "aspire to own."

Newport Beach, Calif., led the list of most expensive real estate markets, with an average listing price for four-bedroom/two-bathroom homes of $1,826,348 US. Vancouver was the only Canadian city in the North American top 10, posting an average price of $1,324,000 CDN ($1,289,179 US).

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Edmonton on path to No. 2 growth

Edmonton will jump from the country`s worst growth record last year to the Top 5 this year and No. 2 in 2011, a think-tank predicts.

Projected growth of 3.8 per cent in the city`s economy this year is fifth-highest among Canadian municipalities in the Conference Board of Canada`s Metropolitan Outlook for Autumn 2010.

It compares with a 5.1-per-cent contraction in 2009, which placed Edmonton 13th out of 13 Canadian cities surveyed for growth.

Calgary, which had Canada`s second-worst growth performance last year with shrinkage of 4.5 per cent, is expected to rank eighth this year, but first in 2011.

Leading the pack in growth this year are southern Ontario rivals Toronto and Hamilton, with growth of 4.7 and 4.5 per cent, respectively, as they recover from losses last year of 2.3 and 3.8 per cent.

Those forecasts -- credited to a rebound in manufacturing, construction and retail trade -- outpace expectations for gross domestic product gains not only in other major cities but in Canada as a whole.

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