September 2012 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

Alberta forecast to lead Canadian growth in 2012





CALGARY ` Alberta`s economic growth will remain in the pole position ahead of all other provinces in 2012, according to the latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook.




RBC expects province`s economy will grow by 3.8 per cent this year, the fastest rate in Canada and well above the national average of 2.1 per cent. But in 2013 it sees growth dropping to 3.6 per cent, second only to Saskatchewan`s nation-leading 4.0 per cent.




`Alberta started 2012 on a high note with strong gains across the majority of sectors, including continued massive capital investment in the provincial energy sector,` said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC, in a statement. `Employment, retail sales, home resales and housing starts are all up, while the jobless rate is trending down. Alberta`s current economic boom is built on a solid foundation and we expect the rapid growth trend to continue in 2013 at a pace of 3.6 per cent.`






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[Ally]

Northern Gateway pipeline dispute follows feuding Alberta, B.C. premiers on China trade mission



Alison Redford and Christy Clark will be side by side in China this week but there will still be the issue of a 1,200 kilometre pipeline standing between them.




The premiers of Alberta and British Columbia - along with Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall - are attending the World Economic Forum in Tianjin and will take part in a natural resources panel and New West Partnership reception together Tuesday.





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[Ally]

Unprecedented opposition may make British Columbia pipeline a non-starter



OTTAWA`More than 1,000 Canadians have spoken out at public hearings on whether to build the Northern Gateway oil pipeline through the British Columbia wilderness.





The information-gathering sessions, which resumed this week, will go on for months, with thousands of others waiting to give evidence.





But, even as corporate backers of the proposed $6-billion project began presenting their case, there was a growing conviction that the pipeline to carry oilsands-derived crude from Alberta to the B.C. coast had already become a non-starter.





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[Ally]

Canadian jurisdictions prove attractive for oil and gas investment




This summer the Fraser Institute released its annual Global Petroleum Survey ranking the best and worst places to invest in oil and gas.

Most Canadian oil-producing regions fared pretty well in the survey (not enough data was acquired to rank Ontario or PEI), which polled 623 petroleum industry executives and managers on 18 factors that affect investment decisions. Of the 147 jurisdictions evaluated, only Quebec and New Brunswick finished in the bottom half of the rankings. But at least those provinces still finished ahead of Iraq and Venezuela as investment destinations.





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[Ally]

Cheap natural gas fuels South African firm's interest in Alberta's Industrial Heartland






EDMONTON ` Drawn to Alberta by large amounts of low-priced natural gas, South African firm Sasol is proposing to build an $8 billion refinery near Fort Saskatchewan that would produce an initial 48,000 barrels per day and later up to 96,000 bpd of diesel fuel from natural gas.




Sasol is a world leader in the production of gasoline and diesel from coal and natural gas, with operations in 38 countries but no plant in Canada.




Sasol said Wednesday it has obtained an option to purchase a 526-hectare site located four kilometres northeast of the city on land owned by Total E&P Canada which was intended for that firm`s bitumen upgrader.





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[Ally]

Alberta small business owners in expansion mood





CALGARY ` Small business owners in the Prairie provinces are among the most likely in Canada to want to expand, according to a new CIBC poll released Thursday.


The poll, conducted by Leger Marketing, says businesses in Alberta (46 per cent) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (47 per cent) were among the most likely to want to expand, while businesses in Ontario (40 per cent) were less likely to be planning an expansion.


The survey showed that 85 per cent of Canadian small business owners feel optimistic about the future success of their business, and many plan to expand in the next three years.






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[Ally]

New house prices on the rise in Calgary region





CALGARY ` New house prices in the Calgary region are on the rise.




Statistics Canada reported Thursday that the New Housing Price Index rose 0.1 per cent in July from the previous month in the Calgary census metropolitan area. It also rose by the same amount at the national level.




`The metropolitan region of Calgary was the top contributor to the advance. Some builders reported that increased material and labour costs were the main reason for higher prices,` said the federal agency.




On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 2.3 per cent in both the Calgary region and across the country.




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[Ally]

Renters out of luck in Grande Prairie




Recent trends are clear: Grande Prairie will look more and more like a sea of single detached homes, interspersed by shopping islands. Those wanting to rent are losing luck.




Rental unit availability remains at rock bottom. The vacancy rate stands at a meager 1.1%, compared with 3.9% last autumn in Grande Prairie, and compared with the current 3% average for Alberta overall. Throughout the province, the rental vacancy rate was lower only in the Okotoks (where it stands at 0 %), and in Cold Lake (0.3%).




Meanwhile, over the last six months, the City of Grande Prairie had 313 new housing starts ` up an astounding 61% from the year before, and second highest in Alberta after Medicine Hat. This August alone, 76 new houses started, compared with only 26 in August 2011.





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[Ally]

Alberta backs foreign oil deals





Alberta Premier Alison Redford voiced pointed support for foreign investment during a trade mission in China, just as Ottawa is reviewing the merits of China`s ambitious bid to acquire Canada`s Nexen Inc.




Ms. Redford and other Canadian leaders assembled Thursday in Beijing with senior Chinese government and business officials, who made the case for the $15.1-billion (U.S.) deal to serve as a catalyst for greater economic ties between the nations.






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[Ally]

Balanced market on the horizon for Alberta




Alberta`s housing market is moving to an overall balanced market with modest price gains predicted for 2013, says the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.




`We`re seeing markets really transition here in Alberta,` says Lai Sing Louie, CMHC regional economist for the prairies and territories.




`At the beginning of the year, we saw Calgary transition from a buyers` market to balanced market conditions. It took a couple more quarters for that to happen in Edmonton, and we`ve (since) moved that market into balanced conditions.`





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[Ally]

Oil takes a tumble





EDMONTON - After briefly touching $100 US a barrel Friday, oil prices staged an abrupt retreat Monday.



Crude oil for October delivery closed at $96.62 US a barrel on the New York Merchantile Exchange, down $2.38 or 2.4 per cent on the day.




At one point, crude plunged more than $3 a barrel in the space of one minute as twitchy traders hit the sell button in the wake of a weak U.S. economic report.





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[Ally]

Calgary resale housing activity tops other markets





CALGARY ` While Canada`s resale housing market was showing signs of a correction in August, Calgary`s real estate story was telling another tale.





National sales during the month were the biggest year-over-year drop since April 2011, but Calgary experienced the highest annual rate of sales growth among major centres in the country and it recorded the best price growth in Canada in an index that tracks price trends in the country`s major markets, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.





Ann-Marie Lurie, the Calgary Real Estate Board`s chief economist, said the city`s housing market has been buoyed by positive economic markers such as employment growth, economic growth and positive migration. Consumer confidence has also contributed to positive sales growth in real estate.






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[Ally]

B.C., First Nation sign a deal aimed at fast-tracking natural gas exports




VANCOUVER - The B.C. government has struck a deal with the Haisla First Nation that the province says could help fast track a liquefied natural gas plant near Kitimat.




The agreement would allow the purchase or lease of land that will enable the Haisla to work with the industry to develop both the plant and an export terminal on Douglas Channel.




Aboriginal Relations Minister Ida Chong says the deal is the key to unlocking a whole new natural gas export industry in B.C.





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[Ally]

Calgary and Edmonton to lead Canadian economic growth



CALGARY ` Calgary and Edmonton are forecast to be the fastest growing economies in Canada over the next four years, according to the Conference Board of Canada`s Metropolitan Outlook-Autumn 2012 released Tuesday.





`Energy-related investment in Alberta is expected to stay vibrant throughout the next four years. For instance, about $29-billion worth of energy-related projects are now underway in the province, and nearly $86-billion worth of projects are proposed for the future,` said Mario Lefebvre, Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, for the board.





`All this investment will continue to be a boon to Calgary`s economy, which remains the services hub of the province`s energy sector.`



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[Ally]

Alberta inflation highest in country




CALGARY ` Consumer prices in Alberta rose 0.6 per cent in August from the previous month, the highest rate of inflation in the country, according to Statistics Canada.




The federal agency said that prices increased by 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis at the national level.




Year-over-year, prices were up 1.0 per cent in Alberta and 1.2 per cent across the country.





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[Ally]

Trend in single-family home buyers





CALGARY ` With an increasing trend in one-person households in Canada, more people these days are buying homes on their own.




According to TD Canada Trust research, 47 per cent of first-time homebuyers in Alberta buy their first home on their own (without a co-purchaser).




In Canada, that percentage is 43 per cent.






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[Ally]

China closing in on huge oilpatch purchase




CALGARY`Will one of the tallest buildings in Calgary soon be emblazoned with the initials of a Chinese state-owned oil company?




That`s just one of the many questions that hangs over the proposed takeover of Nexen, a major oilsands player, by the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC).




In July CNOOC offered Nexen shareholders a 61-per-cent premium on the share price and last week those shareholders decided it was a deal that they simply couldn`t refuse. It was an important step toward completion of the $15-billion deal, China`s largest overseas acquisition to date.





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[Ally]

Alberta retail sales soar to highest annual growth rate in Canada




CALGARY ` Alberta retail sales reached just over $5.7 billion in July with the highest year-over-year growth rate in the country.




Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that retail sales in the province rose by 9.2 per cent from July 2011. They were also up 1.4 per cent from the previous month.




Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial, said the July increase more than offset a drop from May to June, and now represents a new record high for spending in the province.





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[Ally]

How the 'Big Reset' changed the odds on gas prices



At the end of March, not even a seasoned gambler would have put odds on the `Big Reset.` For sure, nobody in Canada`s oil patch would have wagered two bucks (or a thousand cubic feet of natural gas) on the unlikeliest of outcomes: That the largest ever surplus of gas accumulated in U.S. storage caverns would burn off before winter.





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[Ally]

Calgary home prices edge upward





CALGARY ` Calgary home prices rose slightly in August, according to the latest Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index, which tracks repeat home sales in the country.




Prices in Calgary were up 0.4 per cent from the previous month and 0.8 per cent year-over-year, said the report released on Wednesday. Nationally, prices rose 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis and by 4.1 per cent on an annual basis.




The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.






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