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The Real Estate Cycle is Changing and So Must your Tactics

DonCampbell

Investor, Analyst, Author, Philanthropist
Staff member
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2007
Messages
2,005
Whether Quick-Turn or Long-Term: Real Estate Always Travels In Cycles

Right now, at the beginning of 2016, the Canadian real estate cycle is shifting. In some regions the cycle is improving, in other regions it is deteriorating quite rapidly. This is not the first time, nor will it be the last. However, it is a time of change. Changes to the economy lead to changes in the real estate cycle with MUST lead to:

Changes In A Real Estate Investor’s Tactics

Yes, this isn’t the first time we have witnessed and experienced cycle changes. We are not theorists with great marketing profiles. We are right in the trenches and teach exactly what we are doing, in good times and in tougher times. For those in the hot markets right now, it is important to remember that market slow-downs in other regions can provide you with wonderful lessons of how necessary it is to play both offense and defense with your portfolio choices. In the hot regions many investors begin to believe that they are investment geniuses due to their results. When, frankly, the market conditions have covered-up any of their bad choices or weak fundamentals. The cracks in the portfolio only begin to become to become fatal when the market begins to shift (and it ALWAYS does).

You can look at real estate cycles as being similar to a game of musical chairs- it is fun and exciting when the music is on your side, however, inevitably the music pauses and a strategic investors’ goal is to ensure they are positioned properly when the music pauses. By building a portfolio positioned for both defense and offense it won’t create enough excitement or drama for a TV show – but it sure provides the strategic investor a LOT of time and financial ability to find excitement in all other aspects of my life. So I ask you the big question....

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Yoon5203

Yoon Chung
Registered
Joined
May 8, 2015
Messages
10
Hi Don, your twitter postings help a lot to get better informed of the current market conditions. I enjoy reading most of them.

Given the political interferences happening across the major cities ( Vancouver in particular), there seems lots of confusions and uncertainties at least to me. I remember you mentioned in April REIN event the Toronto market is heading to full recovery/boom (even recovery stage in 905 areas) If I read your speech right. As always future is unpredictable and can change quickly too. Given whats going on in Toronto and GTA market now, where are we now in terms of the cycle in your view?
Are we potentially heading to the slump phase soon? Or at least sudden changes expected as it happened in Vancouver?
Btw, enjoyed watching the BNN interview about all the regions across country and you must be a genius!:)
Thanks for your time. Yoon
 

DonCampbell

Investor, Analyst, Author, Philanthropist
Staff member
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2007
Messages
2,005
The price of land in GTA has become un-reachable for high percentage of buyers, therefore demand has shifted to the condo market.
This has pushed the inventory of current condos down to near-term record lows thus protecting prices. A strategic investor should be watching where the next transit expansion is headed in order to identify regions that will see higher demand curves than the overall market.
The Places to Grow Act will continue to constrain land, thus protecting downside of prices. If a glut of condos do hit the market all at one, that should slow price increases. But that doesn't seem to be on the radar.

PS re Your comment on the BNN interview. Thank you Genius no, but well informed and passionate about research, absolutely.
 
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