Too Little, Too Late for Alberta
- Thread starter Jack
- Start date
QUOTE (stephen @ Nov 24 2008, 07:40 PM)
After listening to the Rein advertizing about which towns would really go up in value in the next few years i decided to join. I joined based on really beleiving Rein had the inside scoop...I joined in the spring of 2007 and shortly after bought a house in grande prairie, since then my house value has been declining the rent in that town has been as well. Needless to say i would like to keep beleiving and being positive that my house value and rent will rise. I am trying not to give into the fear that says i should sell.
I understand that its good to be positve and I generally am a positive person but what I am observing has nothing to do with being positive or being negative. Both Jack and the Rein group are both using news papers and articles to show there point of view and as to what they think is behind the curtain for Alberta. I dont think Jack should be put down for his articles...what if there was a huge ressession for alberta and he was right? As much as i dont want there to be a big drop in the market, if he can prove that there will be ...would that not be valuable information if we were warned ahead of time to sell? Thoes of us who are putting him down for being negative just because we have invested in Alberta and would like to see the positive may just be the ones who are applauding the emperors new clothes.
I sincerley hope Alberta will still go up in value and i hope the Rein group is right. I also appreaciate Jacks articles and am not threatened by them. Im just a small time investor right now with one house in Grande prairie hoping this will be seed capital for more investments...I hope Rein is right ...I want to beleive.
Does your property cash flow? If you have cash flow after taking vacancy, repairs and maintence, property management, etc into account, you should be smiling. I will guarantee you your property will rise in value. I just can't tell you when. If you have true cash flow time is on your side, however if you are bleeding money time is your enemy and you should look at selling.
There is a differnce between being an educated positive sophisticated investor and being irrationally exuberant. This is where Jack is getting frustrated along with many other investors. 95% of the deals posted out there even in our own classified section on this site represent irrational exubance. This is not what REIN teaches.
It seems the last couple of years many investors were bending the REIN system to fit their needs. The current market conditions are going to shake many of those investors out. The question is did you follow the system so you should have positive cash flow, or did you buy this property based on the idea that rents and property values were going to go up?
Neil
After listening to the Rein advertizing about which towns would really go up in value in the next few years i decided to join. I joined based on really beleiving Rein had the inside scoop...I joined in the spring of 2007 and shortly after bought a house in grande prairie, since then my house value has been declining the rent in that town has been as well. Needless to say i would like to keep beleiving and being positive that my house value and rent will rise. I am trying not to give into the fear that says i should sell.
I understand that its good to be positve and I generally am a positive person but what I am observing has nothing to do with being positive or being negative. Both Jack and the Rein group are both using news papers and articles to show there point of view and as to what they think is behind the curtain for Alberta. I dont think Jack should be put down for his articles...what if there was a huge ressession for alberta and he was right? As much as i dont want there to be a big drop in the market, if he can prove that there will be ...would that not be valuable information if we were warned ahead of time to sell? Thoes of us who are putting him down for being negative just because we have invested in Alberta and would like to see the positive may just be the ones who are applauding the emperors new clothes.
I sincerley hope Alberta will still go up in value and i hope the Rein group is right. I also appreaciate Jacks articles and am not threatened by them. Im just a small time investor right now with one house in Grande prairie hoping this will be seed capital for more investments...I hope Rein is right ...I want to beleive.
Does your property cash flow? If you have cash flow after taking vacancy, repairs and maintence, property management, etc into account, you should be smiling. I will guarantee you your property will rise in value. I just can't tell you when. If you have true cash flow time is on your side, however if you are bleeding money time is your enemy and you should look at selling.
There is a differnce between being an educated positive sophisticated investor and being irrationally exuberant. This is where Jack is getting frustrated along with many other investors. 95% of the deals posted out there even in our own classified section on this site represent irrational exubance. This is not what REIN teaches.
It seems the last couple of years many investors were bending the REIN system to fit their needs. The current market conditions are going to shake many of those investors out. The question is did you follow the system so you should have positive cash flow, or did you buy this property based on the idea that rents and property values were going to go up?
Neil
Totally agree with Nil. This is the time when I actually realize that by "NOT" following the rule, actually hurts...For many of us(new investors) who have invested prior to 2007, our mistakes by not following the system were covered by the market. I have one negative cashflow property, paid more than current market price, and I can feel the pain if anyone is in the situtation like this. Good thing for me is my total positive cashflow is more than my negative...This is the time when I feel how important that I need to follow the system.
I got tired of timing the market now, as I realized "cashflow" is the way more important in creating real estate wealth, not capital appreciation. After many years of looking for "get rich quick", I finally gave up..
I love the idea of getting paid every month without working, mortgage free after 25-35 years. All I know is the world need fuel and food, which canada (alberta) provides...and when compareing with all other places in the world, I feel comfortable investing in Alberta, rather than investing in a totally new places...
So....as long as it cashflows, I don`t really care if the market goes up or down..I will just be more cautious when i buy my next property. Great lesson learned this time.
I got tired of timing the market now, as I realized "cashflow" is the way more important in creating real estate wealth, not capital appreciation. After many years of looking for "get rich quick", I finally gave up..
I love the idea of getting paid every month without working, mortgage free after 25-35 years. All I know is the world need fuel and food, which canada (alberta) provides...and when compareing with all other places in the world, I feel comfortable investing in Alberta, rather than investing in a totally new places...
So....as long as it cashflows, I don`t really care if the market goes up or down..I will just be more cautious when i buy my next property. Great lesson learned this time.
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- Aug 29, 2007
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I can honestly say that since joining this forum I have considered it very bland. Many times I have typed out responses only to delete them without posting feeling it was not in keeping with the general consensus of the group.
I often read posts that seemed naive and found the responses to generally provide encouragement where I would have taken a much different approach educating on the real reality of being a landlord.
My posts could easily be considered negative.
I appreciate the fact that this is a group with common principals on investing but still expect an occasional lively debate arising from different personalities.
I don`t know Jack but all things considered I understand his view point and am just as interested in reading his posts as any other.
I often read posts that seemed naive and found the responses to generally provide encouragement where I would have taken a much different approach educating on the real reality of being a landlord.
My posts could easily be considered negative.
I appreciate the fact that this is a group with common principals on investing but still expect an occasional lively debate arising from different personalities.
I don`t know Jack but all things considered I understand his view point and am just as interested in reading his posts as any other.
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- Aug 30, 2007
- Messages
- 13,881
QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 24 2008, 09:14 PM) ... That said, REIN has their format that they want me to adhere to, but it`s not a format that I`m interested in following.
...
such as ?
no links ?
...
such as ?
no links ?
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2007
- Messages
- 2,005
What a great discussion line.
However, let`s keep the discussion about what is important the facts, the opinions and the full articles (and not the personalities involved).
This world would be VERY boring if we didn`t have lots of different analysis of the same economic conditions.
What is VERY entertaining is that the last time we saw this happen was during the KYOTO accord signing. Opinions ran all over the amp, and people started to get personal. And we all saw what happened after that debacle.
We all have freedom of choice, without hijacking a discussion or doing something just to be a rebel. I think that some of these posts are healthy to create debate, just like we had back during the KYOTO scary times.
The key is to keep it focused on the facts. And at the absolute bottom line is, have fun in the discussions but don`t take your eye off the ball which is it is sometimes easier to hide on-line than to act in real life.
We all have goals for ourselves and our families and THAT is what needs to be the focus. Making decision based on sound reasoning not emotionally charged discussions. The best part is that the many REIN Members who have been Members for over 15 years have seen this all before, often these types of discussions are started and perpetuated by those just starting out and that`s OK it keeps everyone sharp.
But keep the facts clear, if anyone is going to post an article found elsewhere, make sure that the article itself is not edited and a link is provided to the source (the ol` What`s Behind The Curtain), then put an opinion, if you want, after it. Simple and makes it helpful for all and will stimulate more discussion.
The next 12 months are going to be interesting. It took over 18 months for KYOTO to work its way out of the system and for people to get confident again. Let`s see how long this takes.......
However, let`s keep the discussion about what is important the facts, the opinions and the full articles (and not the personalities involved).
This world would be VERY boring if we didn`t have lots of different analysis of the same economic conditions.
What is VERY entertaining is that the last time we saw this happen was during the KYOTO accord signing. Opinions ran all over the amp, and people started to get personal. And we all saw what happened after that debacle.
We all have freedom of choice, without hijacking a discussion or doing something just to be a rebel. I think that some of these posts are healthy to create debate, just like we had back during the KYOTO scary times.
The key is to keep it focused on the facts. And at the absolute bottom line is, have fun in the discussions but don`t take your eye off the ball which is it is sometimes easier to hide on-line than to act in real life.
We all have goals for ourselves and our families and THAT is what needs to be the focus. Making decision based on sound reasoning not emotionally charged discussions. The best part is that the many REIN Members who have been Members for over 15 years have seen this all before, often these types of discussions are started and perpetuated by those just starting out and that`s OK it keeps everyone sharp.
But keep the facts clear, if anyone is going to post an article found elsewhere, make sure that the article itself is not edited and a link is provided to the source (the ol` What`s Behind The Curtain), then put an opinion, if you want, after it. Simple and makes it helpful for all and will stimulate more discussion.
The next 12 months are going to be interesting. It took over 18 months for KYOTO to work its way out of the system and for people to get confident again. Let`s see how long this takes.......
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- Aug 31, 2007
- Messages
- 109
It`s a shame that you are bitter now because the sky is no longer rosy. If you prefer Jack`s gloomy picture to REIN`s then I guess you haven`t learned very much in the past 18 months. You would likely be better off to sell your one property and find a secure job somewhere. It doesn`t sound as if real estate investing is either yours or Jack`s cup of tea.
Hi Dianne...
Thanks for your post although you have taken the liberty to read more into things than you ought
Im not bitter and never have been. The reason for my post is that i am seeing simillarites in the news about this economic down turn and the great depression. I would love others opinions on how long or far this downturn will last. I cannot forsee the future but i "hope" it does not go to far and I "hope" grande prairie does well...If the economy would ever go as far as the great depression, none of your properties nor mine would cashflow then you would probebly have to go get a "secure" job to pay for the mortgages. Secondly everyone who buys after doing there research "hopes" and "beleives" that there investment will do well. I have never met anyone who has bought somthing hoping that it will go down in value. This has nothing to do with ones level of sophistication.
Being concerned and doing research about the market going down is not being negative...Its called looking at a downturn with "eyes wide open".
Like i said...I do enjoy civil discussions about this topic and am not threatened by it.
If I were threatend by someones point of view I would probably attack that person saying they were bitter and tell them investing isnt there cup of tea and to go get a secure job.
Hi Dianne...
Thanks for your post although you have taken the liberty to read more into things than you ought
Im not bitter and never have been. The reason for my post is that i am seeing simillarites in the news about this economic down turn and the great depression. I would love others opinions on how long or far this downturn will last. I cannot forsee the future but i "hope" it does not go to far and I "hope" grande prairie does well...If the economy would ever go as far as the great depression, none of your properties nor mine would cashflow then you would probebly have to go get a "secure" job to pay for the mortgages. Secondly everyone who buys after doing there research "hopes" and "beleives" that there investment will do well. I have never met anyone who has bought somthing hoping that it will go down in value. This has nothing to do with ones level of sophistication.
Being concerned and doing research about the market going down is not being negative...Its called looking at a downturn with "eyes wide open".
Like i said...I do enjoy civil discussions about this topic and am not threatened by it.
If I were threatend by someones point of view I would probably attack that person saying they were bitter and tell them investing isnt there cup of tea and to go get a secure job.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2011
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- 166
I find "voices of dissent" refreshing. They serve as a catalyst for deeper discussion and engages the reader. Message boards, especially when egos and money are concerned, must be a sociologist`s dream; It is interesting to observe the emotional responses present in Jack`s threads-we should be more focused on facts instead.
Stephen, your post brings on the LOLs
It`s nice to see people having fun on this thread.
Stephen, your post brings on the LOLs
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2007
- Messages
- 109
QUOTE (seeu22 @ Nov 24 2008, 09:57 PM) Does your property cash flow? If you have cash flow after taking vacancy, repairs and maintence, property management, etc into account, you should be smiling. I will guarantee you your property will rise in value. I just can`t tell you when. If you have true cash flow time is on your side, however if you are bleeding money time is your enemy and you should look at selling.
There is a differnce between being an educated positive sophisticated investor and being irrationally exuberant. This is where Jack is getting frustrated along with many other investors. 95% of the deals posted out there even in our own classified section on this site represent irrational exubance. This is not what REIN teaches.
It seems the last couple of years many investors were bending the REIN system to fit their needs. The current market conditions are going to shake many of those investors out. The question is did you follow the system so you should have positive cash flow, or did you buy this property based on the idea that rents and property values were going to go up?
Neil
Hi Neil
When I bought in Grande Prairie my property cashflowed around 150.00 per month. Now with rent falling I have to subsidize it by around 150.00. I did use the Rein system as I was taught. I do beleive that this drop in values and rent was unforseen. I did think that rent would either stay the same or go up.
There is a differnce between being an educated positive sophisticated investor and being irrationally exuberant. This is where Jack is getting frustrated along with many other investors. 95% of the deals posted out there even in our own classified section on this site represent irrational exubance. This is not what REIN teaches.
It seems the last couple of years many investors were bending the REIN system to fit their needs. The current market conditions are going to shake many of those investors out. The question is did you follow the system so you should have positive cash flow, or did you buy this property based on the idea that rents and property values were going to go up?
Neil
Hi Neil
When I bought in Grande Prairie my property cashflowed around 150.00 per month. Now with rent falling I have to subsidize it by around 150.00. I did use the Rein system as I was taught. I do beleive that this drop in values and rent was unforseen. I did think that rent would either stay the same or go up.
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2008
- Messages
- 428
Looks like it`s not just the little guys who agree that this "adjustment" to the new royalty framework doesn`t really help all that much. Petro-Canada CEO, Ron Brenneman:
- "The new royalties have come along too late to make any difference to our plans for 2009. It doesn`t look like the rates have changed all that much...the possibilities range from selling straight up bitumen on term contracts, mostly to US refiners who appear to be quite interested in that these days . . . to perhaps even investing in or purchasing coking capacity in the US, somewhere in the refining circuit that is connected by pipe that we could move bitumen into."Genuity Capital Markets Analyst, Philip Skolnick:
"It makes sense because it`s an upgrading solution that`s significantly cheaper than what you get from building an upgrader in Alberta.
- You`re talking about around $25,000 per flowing barrel versus $60,000-plus per flowing barrel, plus you`re getting a refined product
- . It gives you more certainty in your economics
- ."
I have to say that I really like to see Jack`s posts.
There would be no better thing for me, than to see some negative articles posted....along with facts and data posted by REIN members to show why this will not affect our investing......or how to counter it
I`d much rather see that, than just rosy/positive articles and comments.
Don once invited some of the most bearish "sky is falling" authors to come in and present....so there could be a healthy debate around their point of view, based on facts and data.
I think we should encourage the same thing here.
Just my personal opinion........
James M
There would be no better thing for me, than to see some negative articles posted....along with facts and data posted by REIN members to show why this will not affect our investing......or how to counter it
I`d much rather see that, than just rosy/positive articles and comments.
Don once invited some of the most bearish "sky is falling" authors to come in and present....so there could be a healthy debate around their point of view, based on facts and data.
I think we should encourage the same thing here.
Just my personal opinion........
James M