Toronto`s Real Estate Bubble

[MaximeValmont]

What you call Uncertainty is what your brain can't process.





Someone explain me why millions of financial firms right now arounf the world are crunching numbers to predict the market if it is useless?



Why?





And how are all these financial billionaires got so rich if you can't predict the market?



How?



This thread lacks common sense IMO.

 

[Rickson9]

[quote user=MaximeValmont]Funny how this debate went from predicting when an asset is over-valuated to predicting in the future ANY events...


Actually, I think you brought up the idea that:



[quote user=MaximeValmont]With mathematical calculations we can predict the future with good precision.


Did I misread?



I brought up the idea that:



[quote user=Rickson9]"Overvalued" doesn't mean anything. Overvalued only means something
after the fact; after a collapse. Until that point, it's really quite
meaningless.


As this thread is showing quite nicely as everybody continues to talk in unactionable circles.

 

[MaximeValmont]

Alright you got me.





Obviously i'm wrong.





We can't predict the market.



I'll start to call all the financial firms tomorrow to tell them to read this thread, maybe they will become enlightened after that. I'll start with Warren Buffet, i've heard he is reading financial data all day long, he needs to stop that crazyness RIGHT NOW.





Valmont.

 

[tonyla]

In other words, I'm trying to explain is that we do not live in a discrete world where outcomes are finite. The point I'm trying to make is not that uncertainty is a black box that can not be understood. Rather "uncertainty of outcome" stems from the distribution of probability across possible outcomes.



A layman's example would be playing Texas Hold'em. You are dealt pocket aces (2 aces), probability says that against 1 other random hand, your pocket aces have a ~85% probability of winning. There is no absolute way of predicting what the flop, turn or river cards are. So it is possible that you may end up losing the hand to your opponent, even though you were 85% favoured to win. And it is of no fault or deficiency of your own.



Just like real estate or any kind of investing. You stack the cards in your favour, and give yourself every chance to succeed. But in the end not everything is under your control and not everything is predictable.



Financial firms quants/risk analysts/investment bankers would all agree with the fact that they can not predict the future with absolute certainty. They are smarter, have more information available and have more resources then most other people. So they can create better and more complete models to operate from. They are always back testing and readjusting their models when the market behaves outside the parameters of their models. They do not have a singular formula where they can predict the future with such certainty.



And a lot of money is not made by making "bets on the future" but rather finding arbitrage opportunities and exploiting them. The reason these are so lucrative, is because once they are found they are very predictable. This is the thought process that generated High Frequency Traders.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

Common sense is not so common.



Article in National Post today on lending tightening among glut of condos in Toronto:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/23/banks-tighten-condo-lending-amid-bubble-fears/

 

[Rickson9]

[quote user=MaximeValmont]And how are all these financial billionaires got so rich if you can't predict the market?



How?


I'm no billionaire, but I can tell you how I became a debt-free millionaire without having to predict the future if you're interested?



[quote user=MaximeValmont]This thread lacks common sense IMO.


Oddly enough it also lacks "precise predictions of the future" for some reason.

 

[Rickson9]

[quote user=MaximeValmont]I'll start to call all the financial firms tomorrow to tell them to read this thread, maybe they will become enlightened after that. I'll start with Warren Buffet, i've heard he is reading financial data all day long, he needs to stop that crazyness RIGHT NOW.


Um, Warren Buffett doesn't read financial data to predict the future. He's said the opposite actually. Unless you have a quote or other source...?



Here are mine:

"We've long felt that the only value of forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children." - Warren Buffett



"I don't read economic forecasts. I don't read the funny papers" - Warren Buffett



"The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, and folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable." - Warren Buffett

 

[MaximeValmont]

Yeah, i'm not writting predictions here because I obviously don't know what i'm talking about. It's not because I REALLY don't care what you are thinking. I can recognise someone with an over-inflated ego when I see one.



I'm out of here, have fun guys.



@ThomasBeyer, Good to know some people still have common sense

 

[Rickson9]

[quote user=MaximeValmont]Yeah, i'm not writting predictions here because I obviously don't know what i'm talking about. It's not because I REALLY don't care what you are thinking. I can recognise someone with an over-inflated ego when I see one.



I'm out of here, have fun guys.


ROFL post opinions, no backup source or proof, when challenged, get angry, leave.

 

[MaximeValmont]

Yes, I am reallllllyyy reallllly angry right now.



You have THAT MUCH power over me.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

I think W Buffett said this: Common sense is not so common.




Let me add that some things are actually quite predictable, such as




A) the sun will rise tomorrow


B) Some Americans will buy a new car (or fridge or a house or a condo or a T-shirt) tomorrow


C) in 5 years every reader of this, or even the non-readers, will either be 5 years older or dead


D) some stocks will rise tomorrow


E) some stocks will fall tomorrow


F) a squirming or act of violence will happen in the Middle East next week


G) there will be NHL games next week


H) oil will be in demand in 2013, 2018 and even 2048


I) periods of sharp rises in a price are usually followed by a period of flatness or decline




Etc.




So broad trends are quite predictable, such as "between 10 and 12 million cars will be sold in the US in 2012" . What is not predictable with good precision is how many VWs will be sold exactly, or how many white Audi's with 6 cylinders with a sunroof and brown leather seats in NE Los Angeles.



So it is quite predictable that Toronto's condo prices will flat-line or decline for some time, although there will be a few condos (and single family houses or duplexes) due to location or features or savvy buyers where prices will rise

 

[Rickson9]

[quote user=ThomasBeyer]I think W Buffet said this: Common sense is not so common.


Actually W Buffett (not "Buffet" which is what I get when I go to certain restaurants) didn't say this or anything like it. I'm open to hearing any sources that state otherwise?



As a review, I responded to the incorrect implication that W Buffett reads financial data in order to predict the future with well known quotes by the man that states otherwise.



Specifically,



[quote user=MaximeValmont]Alright you got me.



Obviously i'm wrong.



We can't predict the market.



I'll start to call all the financial firms tomorrow to tell them to read this thread, maybe they will become enlightened after that. I'll start with Warren Buffet, i've heard he is reading financial data all day long, he needs to stop that crazyness RIGHT NOW.


"There is nothing more uncommon than common sense" is an anonymous saying dating back at least to it's original citation in Natural Theology (1836) by Thomas Chalmers where he stated that "It has been said that there is nothing more uncommon than common sense." in his article, "On the Strength of the Evidences for God in the Phenomena of Visible and External Nature". It has since become misattributed to many individuals including Frank Lloyd Wright and (now) W Buffett.



[quote user=ThomasBeyer]So it is quite predictable that Toronto's condo prices will flatline or decline for some time.




Obviously we are working with different definitions of the proposed adjective, "precise".



[quote user=Rickson9]"Overvalued" doesn't mean anything. Overvalued only means something after the fact; after a collapse. Until that point, it's really quite meaningless.


[quote user=Rickson9]As this thread is showing quite nicely as everybody continues to talk in unactionable circles.


[quote user=Warren Buffett]

"We've long felt that the only value of forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."



"I don't read economic forecasts. I don't read the funny papers"



"The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, and folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable."

 

[REINteam]

Hi everyone,



This thread began as quite a good discussion, but has somewhat devolved from the topic of a Toronto real estate market bubble. As we know, reading and writing of text has very little inflection and words are often interpreted in a different context than what is intended if the conversation were being had face to face. Keeping that in mind, lets keep this discussion to the topic at hand rather than personal mudslinging - it adds no value to this forum and won't be tolerated.



I have edited some of the most recent posts on this thread for their content. Please keep in mind our posting guidelines and etiquette and see if we can bring this discussion back around to the original topic. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

 

[housingrental]

I support Rickson post.



Maxime - In a short period of time you have posted in multiple threads insulting other posters with out any reason. You have also made claims that are not generally accepted investment thought and when discussed from other posters not been able to provide meaningful responses. As a regular reader of this forum I enjoy reading posts from variety of view points and welcome your continued posting - however I would ask that you be mindful that your posts are coming off as bizarre.





[quote user=Rickson9][quote user=MaximeValmont]Yeah, i'm not writting predictions here because I obviously don't know what i'm talking about. It's not because I REALLY don't care what you are thinking. I can recognise someone with an over-inflated ego when I see one.



You are richer , smarter, better looking than me. You are now officially the tough guy of this thread. Congratulations.



I'm out of here, have fun guys.


ROFL post opinions, no backup source or proof, when challenged, get angry, leave.

 

[housingrental]

Madison you should be ashamed of yourself

I'm glad to read that none of my posts have been changed in this thread

I ask that you put back the edited posts of other posters to their original form

Context matters

Thank you in advance for your anticipated cooporation

[quote user=MadisonNorton]Hi everyone,



This thread began as quite a good discussion, but has somewhat devolved from the topic of a Toronto real estate market bubble. As we know, reading and writing of text has very little inflection and words are often interpreted in a different context than what is intended if the conversation were being had face to face. Keeping that in mind, lets keep this discussion to the topic at hand rather than personal mudslinging - it adds no value to this forum and won't be tolerated.



I have edited some of the most recent posts on this thread for their content. Please keep in mind our posting guidelines and etiquette and see if we can bring this discussion back around to the original topic. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

 

[REINteam]

Hi Adam,



The posts have been edited for inappropriate and irrelevant content. The rest of the thread has maintained its context if someone wishes to read it in full. The point to be taken is that this thread began as a good discussion on the Toronto market that has gone off course. Let's bring it back to the original topic and carry on from there.

 

[MaximeValmont]

@ housingrental







Look,





Rickson9 is insulting me in every of his post. He is always acting like he is superior to others. It's my right to say he has an over-inflated Ego. I've read review of his investments and they are not good, so I don't know what he is talking about.








I don't understand why you are saying i'm insulting him. I'm saying he is smarter than me. I'm LITERALLY insulting myself. If it insults him, then he must feel deep inside of him that what i'm saying is not true. Not my fault if he is insecure about something else on his body.








What is even more suprising is you getting mad at people responding to Rickson9's insults. I don't take crap. If he wants to insult him, he should stop trying to act tough on the internet and come to Calgary. I really can't stand internet though guys. He is always insulting people but nobody answers. Not going to happen with me.





And Madison has the right to edit posts if needed. Toronto market is a really good topic. I brought lots of statistics on the first two pages on why I don't think the Canadian market will plunge like in the US, but yes I do think Toronto will go down.





Valmont.

 

[MaximeValmont]

Here are some facts for those that like to use common sense;



http://business.financialpost.com/category/news/real-estate/



http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/23/home-price-growth-slows-in-canada/



http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/23/banks-tighten-condo-lending-amid-bubble-fears/



http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/20/toronto-condos-lose-investment-lustre/



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/141000-premium-paid-for-regal-heights-home/article2377699/



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/toronto-home-buyers-may-be-baffled-but-builders-are-bullish/article2347290/



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/the-toronto-housing-market-comes-to-an-early-boil/article2339828/





http://www.torontosun.com/2012/02/08/toronto-population-growth-slows-census-shows



http://www.canequity.com/blog/2012-01-toronto-condo-owners-selling-before-potential-oversupply/

 

[MaximeValmont]

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/28/home-prices-keep-climbing-though-gains-are-slowing/




"Looking at how local area price indexes changed in January, Toronto`s was up 9.9%, Calgary up 1.6%, Vancouver up 7%, Montreal up 5.6%, Ottawa 5.4% and Halifax 1.8%."





http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/03/27/ontarios-budget-missed-opportunity/





http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/28/many-pinched-in-mortgage-rate-stress-tests/




"31% of Canadians with a mortgage have opted for a variable product exposing them to changes in interest rates." , "

On a province by province basis, Alberta household scored the strongest on the stress test with 73% saying they could afford their mortgage if it went up two percentage points. Manitoba and Saskatchewan were second at 69%.


British Columbia, which has the most expensive homes in the country in Vancouver, had the worst record. Only 48% of households said they could still afford their home if interest rates were to climb by two percentage points."







http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1152659--ontario-budget-get-out-that-wallet-increased-fees-to-hit-drivers-seniors-and-homebuyers




"Ontario drivers, high-income seniors, homebuyers and businesses that create hazardous waste are just some of the groups being targeted with increased fees as the cash-strapped Liberal government attempts to rid the province of a $16-billion deficit by 2017-18"









....





Oh and By the Way, here is a good video of an Interview of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet in which a student ask them what they do all day... Strangely enough they read alot and try to predict the future...wowwww, how suprising, they read? Rickson9 seems to think that he can do good on the market without having to read anything





Here it is :




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4WTrIpTef8&feature=related









Warren Buffett " I read alot. I wish I was a faster reader but I read alot"




I mean common, everybody that think that he doesn't read the financial data from the companies he owns and the one he's considering to own OBVIOUSLY don't know ANYTHING about finance.








Valmont.

 

[MaximeValmont]

Another one in which he says he looks for the fundamentals for the business he is buying and try to predict if it will be good in the future




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aYEOsZgRm8&feature=related





Valmont.