@Rickson9, as you are a macro-guy...
Yes, although the forecast hinges around the idea of a shift in renter profile in Calgary. There are 2500 renal units under construction right now (
below), which I think is structurally fine as the renal universe has declined in Calgary from 57,500 in 1994 to 40,000 in 2017. Strategic, Timbercreek, Minto, Mainstreet, and Boardwalk are all very bullish on multifamily in Alberta. They have bid prices to 3% cap rate on current actuals. I can't make their deals pencil. I think they are buying on a price per pound rather than on income or DCF model - unless they are willing to actually take that risk on a 5% IRR with 3% rental CAGR.
The problem in Alberta is that there are headlines of "growth" but what is this is actually deferred maintenance in the oilfield that is putting some people back to work. Pipeline access is a major problem. Downtown Calgary, it is a bloodbath and virtually no one is growing. Large players signing new leases are leaving behind spaces and renting it out for pennies because they can downsize and collect rent from their old space.
The story in Alberta is about latent/wasted potential in the energy sector which can come back. U.S. oilfield cap ex was up 40% YOY while we decreased. It isn't about unenvironmental oil or even a lack of majority support for oilfield projects, it has come down to a minority actually stalling our political system. As Canadians, we need to decide if that is what a democracy means to us.
Tech in Alberta is grabbing headlines but there is not really any compelling reason to locate in Calgary other than the fantastic quality of life because our labour is so expensive and globally our tech talent is not top-10 North America...we are not getting worse but not making any substantial steps to better ourselves either. Note that RocketSpace pulled out of the Edison for example.
So yes, I absolutely believe in Alberta's potential. As investors, there is no untangling that your investment in Alberta is an investment in energy so please advocate strongly for pipelines if you want to see your investments succeed! ...tech is not going to help move the needle!