Good morning REIN members. I'm just curious to hear what the experts and analysts have to say about where each major city will be headed in terms of house price appreciation in the middle to long term. I have been doing lots of research lately to just try and figure out what we could expect from those big cities in Canada but apparently due to my lack of experience or maybe long term vision on real estate I can't seem to draw a clear picture of that all.
What I mean is every province and city has its local real estate cycle or market which means when some cities are performing well in a certain province other cities are performing bad in another province like Alberta on one hand and Ontario and BC on the other hand which are headed in opposite directions due to different economies currently.
So what I'm wondering about is if one has to buy three properties today one in Calgary, a second one in Toronto and a third one in Vancouver and hold onto them for between 7 to 10 years and after that same period i.e 7 to 10 years sell them all, sit down and compare the gains which one would you think will be the best performer in terms of price appreciation considering the price changes during the 10 year period overall and the net outcome when adding up the numbers for each year for 10 years?
I was trying to figure out this because I think the numbers in Calgary today and maybe in the next few years could be either flat or up and down a little bit where as in Toronto it's mainly on the upside for now at least but we don't know how long in the future it will continue and as for Vancouver it started to level off or slip a little bit this year.
As an example I was trying to do the math in such a way that could look like this:
Calgary: Flat this year and for the next 2 years and then 5% appreciation for every year after, which would add up to 35% in 10 years.
Toronto: 10% this year, 5% for the next three years and maybe 2 to 3% for the 6 years after which would add up to 35 to 40% in 10 years.
Vancouver: - 10% this year then flat for 2 to 3 years and maybe 7 to 8 % for the next 6 years which would add up to 30 to 40% in 10 years.
I could be wrong though and that's why and where I need the opinion of the experienced and long term members who probably have dealt in real estate for the last few decades and know the long term outcome and differences in performance in the different cities.
What I mean is every province and city has its local real estate cycle or market which means when some cities are performing well in a certain province other cities are performing bad in another province like Alberta on one hand and Ontario and BC on the other hand which are headed in opposite directions due to different economies currently.
So what I'm wondering about is if one has to buy three properties today one in Calgary, a second one in Toronto and a third one in Vancouver and hold onto them for between 7 to 10 years and after that same period i.e 7 to 10 years sell them all, sit down and compare the gains which one would you think will be the best performer in terms of price appreciation considering the price changes during the 10 year period overall and the net outcome when adding up the numbers for each year for 10 years?
I was trying to figure out this because I think the numbers in Calgary today and maybe in the next few years could be either flat or up and down a little bit where as in Toronto it's mainly on the upside for now at least but we don't know how long in the future it will continue and as for Vancouver it started to level off or slip a little bit this year.
As an example I was trying to do the math in such a way that could look like this:
Calgary: Flat this year and for the next 2 years and then 5% appreciation for every year after, which would add up to 35% in 10 years.
Toronto: 10% this year, 5% for the next three years and maybe 2 to 3% for the 6 years after which would add up to 35 to 40% in 10 years.
Vancouver: - 10% this year then flat for 2 to 3 years and maybe 7 to 8 % for the next 6 years which would add up to 30 to 40% in 10 years.
I could be wrong though and that's why and where I need the opinion of the experienced and long term members who probably have dealt in real estate for the last few decades and know the long term outcome and differences in performance in the different cities.