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July 2010 Alberta Economic Fundamentals

Amber

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Enter the oil sands man: Canaccord

Sometimes analysts (and journalists) are boring. NAV this, EBITDA that, and other acronyms can put you to sleep. .

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Nexen`s oil sands fortunes improve as profit jumps

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Production at Nexen Inc`s Alberta oil sands project is climbing steadily after a long period of start-up operational problems, Canada`s No. 5 independent oil explorer said on Thursday as it reported higher-than-expected earnings.

Progress at the Long Lake oil sands project, which Nexen expects to start generating positive cash flow later this year, prompted investors to lift the company`s shares 3.5 percent to C$22.13 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

It also overshadowed uncertainty over the impact on Nexen`s operations of a new U.S. moratorium on deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Oil sands emissions dwarfed by coal

U.S. Ambassador David Jacobson has suggested repeatedly that Canada needs to "do more" to reduce the carbon footprint from the oilsands, most recently in a Calgary speech July 19. Perhaps the ambassador should look more closely into his own mirror because, in point of fact, this would appear to be a case of "Old King coal calling the oil sands black" (or blacker). A few pertinent facts are worth noting:

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Ally

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Edmonton`s small-town mayor

Stephen Mandel went from retired businessman to city councillor to Mayor of Edmonton during the last decade. Able to boast of a dropping crime rate and the well-received renovation of the Art Gallery of Alberta (which fit his famous architectural edict of "our tolerance for crap must be zero"), he recently announced he would seek a third term this fall. Why? Let`s just say there are other arenas to conquer. As our series of interviews with Canada`s mayors and premiers continues, Adam McDowell talks with Mr. Mandel.

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On seeking a third term " It`s a difficult decision, to be frank. It`s a lot of hours, it`s a lot of commitment. But we have a really good council and I felt there`s things we haven`t finished that we needed to do. You start some stuff, you want to finish it."

On the alternatives to mayoring "`I`m not a hobby guy. I like to volunteer when I`m not doing this job, but right now this is busy and I don`t. So I don`t have a hobby, but I wish I did, you know. I wish I was a woodworker. I think when I retire I`m going to try to learn how to cook. I like to cook. I`m not any good at it."

On his support for a new arena for the Edmonton Oilers "People can`t get confused. It`s not an arena. It`s a catalyst. That`s really important. My loyalty is to the city of Edmonton. It`s my belief that we need a catalyst to rejuvenate, to have more life downtown. A new arena with the ancillary developments around it -- entertainment and hotels and some office buildings -- would be a catalyst for a part of the city that`s sat dormant for the last -- well, I think since as long as I can remember.

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Suncor Energy`s bidding system limits inflation

CALGARY - Suncor Energy Inc. yesterday said it has been able to keep inflation in check on its expansion project in northern Alberta thanks to a bidding system that has been on hiatus for more than 10 years.

Contractors building Suncor`s Firebag 3 oilsands project, an expansion effort, have signed work agreements at fixed prices, protecting the company from paying out more should the project run over budget. Costs skyrocketed around 2008 when inflation swept Fort McMurray and budgets were meaningless.

"Much of the work [at Firebag 3] is actually hardmoney bids, so this is a little bit of a different era," Rick George, Suncor`s chief executive, said in his company`s second-quarter conference call. "We haven`t seen hardmoney bids on a job in over a decade."

Mr. George expects Suncor to strike similar deals on Firebag 4, its next expansion phase. Firebag is a steam-assisted gravity drainage project, which uses steam and wells to extract bitumen, rather than mining equipment and giant trucks. Firebag 3 is "largely" on time and on budget, Mr. George said. He said steaming will begin in 2011, with full bitumen production following two years later.

Cenovus Energy Inc., which also reported its second quarter yesterday, said it is largely isolated from inflation because its oil sands operations are outside the busier Fort McMurray zone. Its contracts are roughly the same as they were in 2009, when prices went down owing to tough economic times.

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Despite dip, Albertans still lead country in average earnings: StatsCan

CALGARY - Average weekly earnings in Alberta fell in May from the previous month but remained the highest in the country, according to data released today by Statistics Canada.

The federal agency reported that the average weekly earnings, including overtime, of non-farm payroll employees dropped by 0.8 per cent in the province on a monthly basis to $985.17 but that was also up 4.4 per cent from May 2009.

Nationally, average weekly earnings rose 0.4 per cent from the previous month to $848.45 which represented a 3.7 per cent year-over-year growth, the fastest year-over-year increase since February 2008.

"In recent months, the pace of growth in earnings has increased. May marked the sixth consecutive month for which the year-over-year increase was at or above 2.3 per cent. During the prior eight months, year-over-year increases were below 1.8 per cent," said Statistics Canada.

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Signs of continuing softening in Calgary housing market

CALGARY - Preliminary unofficial MLS data shows Calgary`s housing market continued to soften in July with sales plunging from year-ago levels and the average sale price falling from the previous month.

According to the figures on the website of realtor Mike Fotiou, of First Place Realty, so far this month until Thursday there have been 843 single-family homes sales in the city compared with 1,585 sales for the entire month of July 2009.

In June of this year, there were 1,061 sales.

The month-to-date average sale price so far in July is $464,899, down from June`s $481,964 but up from a year ago at $436,782.

Average single-family home prices peaked in July 2007 at $505,920.

Calgary`s condominium market is telling a similar story.

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Commercial Calgary real estate showed steady rise in Q2: Report

Calgary`s commercial real estate market showed some signs of stable growth in the second quarter of this year with the dollar volume of sales increasing from the previous quarter.

A report by RealNet Canada Inc., says the total dollar volume of investment activity in the Greater Calgary Area increased 31 per cent to $474 million.

"Recovery in the Calgary property investment market continued to gain momentum slowly this quarter," said George Carras, president of RealNet. "Market strength is more in line with volumes and activity levels back in 2003."

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Calgary market discourages new investment in major real estate: Report

CALGARY - No major industrial real estate projects are expected to come online between late 2010 and early 2011 in Calgary until development costs decrease and market lease rates increase, says a report by CB Richard Ellis.

"This coupled with continued positive absorption (the change in occupied space) could push vacancy rates below three per cent within 18 months," says the commercial real estate company.

The vacancy rate is currently 4.6 per cent.

Development in the industrial market was stagnant in the second quarter of this year with only 267,200 square feet currently under construction.

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Upgrader plan in final stages

EDMONTON — The Alberta government gave the green light Tuesday for detailed talks to proceed with North West Upgrading to handle provincial royalty bitumen, and likely allow the firm and partner CNRL to build a $5-billion facility near Redwater.

Energy Minister Ron Liepert said a contract could be signed by early fall. If that happens, construction will start next spring, with about 8,000 workers needed -- including work at the site in related manufacturing.

The Tory caucus agreed Tuesday with a cabinet decision the day before to accept an agreement in principle with the firm.

"We have agreed on a term sheet, and it has been approved, so now we will proceed with negotiations. This bodes well for the future of the project," Liepert said in an interview.

"This is all part of the negotiations. You had to agree within this scope of how we are going to get to an agreement, because without agreeing on these general principles there wouldn`t be a deal."

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