Too Little, Too Late for Alberta

[Jack]

-Energy producers are tentatively looking at boosting exploration in Alberta again after a government shift on royalties, but not by enough to rescue the province from a drilling slowdown in 2009, oil patch companies say.-there was also widespread confusion over just how much the new rates will mean because Alberta Energy published incorrect formulas with misleading royalties for new oil wells. “Alberta is poorly handling its biggest resource,” said Max Lof, CFO of junior Breaker Energy. “The changes marginally help producers,” Lof said.-energy company stocks nosedived yesterday as oil prices hit three-year lows.

-Meanwhile, long-time oil financier Rick Grafton has this message for Ed Stelmach: The Alberta premier can`t treat the province`s main economic engine as a subsidy to farmers.

-Grafton`s reaction was typical of the oil patch`s negative reviews yesterday of Alberta`s attempt to soften the blow of higher royalties starting in January: It`s too little, too late to reverse the activity drought, now that a collapse in energy prices, tight credit and equity markets, hot shale discoveries in competing jurisdictions with better fiscal terms have piled on to turn Alberta natural gas into a dead beat. "When you take too much, you all of a sudden take away the incentive to spend money," said Grafton, who heads Gibraltar Capital.

-AMJ Petroleum Consultants said the province is missing the mark. "If prices and costs are the primary drivers behind whether to drill or not to drill, then royalty savings become somewhat irrelevant if wells are not being drilled," said AMJ VP Ralph Glass. "A true stimulus must focus on making the economics of oil and gas exploration and production in Alberta more attractive."

-Ross MacDonald, VP of engineering at RMP Energy, one of the junior energy companies Stelmach is targeting with the onetime offer, said it`s not good enough for him to want to spend money.

-Andrew Potter, analyst at UBS Securities Canada, said "we believe that it will have a modest impact on the economics of new wells and is therefore unlikely to drive meaningfully higher spending levels."

(National Post, Globe and Mail 081121)

 

[Sherilynn]

I consider myself to be an "optimistic realist." Therefore, I believe that when one chooses to focus on the negative, one can always find it.

Sherilynn

 

[maynard]

Hi My name is Maynard and I`m a new member but I tell you Jack you have the attitude of a Kamakazi pilot over Pearl Harbor. Perhaps you wish to be a bell tower or something? Maynard in McMurray

 

[rymac]

why don`t you post this stuff in the economic fundamentals section and post the entire article.

 

[LeighF]

QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 21 2008, 01:42 PM) -Energy producers are tentatively looking at boosting exploration in Alberta again after a government shift on royalties, but not by enough to rescue the province from a drilling slowdown in 2009, oil patch companies say.-there was also widespread confusion over just how much the new rates will mean because Alberta Energy published incorrect formulas with misleading royalties for new oil wells. "Alberta is poorly handling its biggest resource," said Max Lof, CFO of junior Breaker Energy. "The changes marginally help producers," Lof said.-energy company stocks nosedived yesterday as oil prices hit three-year lows.

-Meanwhile, long-time oil financier Rick Grafton has this message for Ed Stelmach: The Alberta premier can`t treat the province`s main economic engine as a subsidy to farmers.

-Grafton`s reaction was typical of the oil patch`s negative reviews yesterday of Alberta`s attempt to soften the blow of higher royalties starting in January: It`s too little, too late to reverse the activity drought, now that a collapse in energy prices, tight credit and equity markets, hot shale discoveries in competing jurisdictions with better fiscal terms have piled on to turn Alberta natural gas into a dead beat. "When you take too much, you all of a sudden take away the incentive to spend money," said Grafton, who heads Gibraltar Capital.

-AMJ Petroleum Consultants said the province is missing the mark. "If prices and costs are the primary drivers behind whether to drill or not to drill, then royalty savings become somewhat irrelevant if wells are not being drilled," said AMJ VP Ralph Glass. "A true stimulus must focus on making the economics of oil and gas exploration and production in Alberta more attractive."

-Ross MacDonald, VP of engineering at RMP Energy, one of the junior energy companies Stelmach is targeting with the onetime offer, said it`s not good enough for him to want to spend money.

-Andrew Potter, analyst at UBS Securities Canada, said "we believe that it will have a modest impact on the economics of new wells and is therefore unlikely to drive meaningfully higher spending levels."

(National Post, Globe and Mail 081121)


Well, my take on this is.....no matter how bad things get, we ( the world) are still going to need oil, gas, diesel, natural gas etc. Yes, things are a little bleak right now, but I beleive its only temporary. Think positive because....Positive things happen to Positive people!

 

[Jack]

Unbelievable.

If you all need a hug, contact your local support group. I`m not here, nor should anybody be here, to be "positive". A "positive" article is of no more informative value than a negative one. Please, stop the whining. Thinking positive will not cure the economy, I promise you. Just ask any "positive people" in Cameroon!

 

[EdRenkema]

QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 23 2008, 10:21 AM) Unbelievable.If you all need a hug, contact your local support group. I`m not here, nor should anybody be here, to be "positive". A "positive" article is of no more informative value than a negative one. Please, stop the whining. Thinking positive will not cure the economy, I promise you. Just ask any "positive people" in Cameroon!Jack give it a rest, if you want to accuse someone of whining look at yourself and all the articles and questionable `advice` you`ve posted. Pretty much all reactive stuff, the people here are simply trying to create a proactive, positive, supportive environment, do you get the difference?
If you think you are such a hard realist & tough kind of guy then do just that by keeping it to yourself.
Post whatever articles you wish, I care not, I admire anything that challenges thinking and the status quo. More than anything I admire the entrepreneurial people looking at the economic mess and trying to take action for a gainful outcome.
If thinking positive will not cure the economy neither will thinking negative, I promise you. The only thing a positive attitude will do is create an internal feeling of wellbeing so some will do just that while maintaining a realistic and forward thinking plan.
You can complain because roses have thorns or celebrate because thorns have roses, either way they are the same thing so handle with care.

 

[DianneDachyshyn]

QUOTE (EdRenkema @ Nov 23 2008, 11:14 AM) Jack give it a rest, if you want to accuse someone of whining look at yourself and all the articles and questionable `advice` you`ve posted. Pretty much all reactive stuff, the people here are simply trying to create a proactive, positive, supportive environment, do you get the difference?
If you think you are such a hard realist & tough kind of guy then do just that by keeping it to yourself.
Post whatever articles you wish, I care not, I admire anything that challenges thinking and the status quo. More than anything I admire the entrepreneurial people looking at the economic mess and trying to take action for a gainful outcome.
If thinking positive will not cure the economy neither will thinking negative, I promise you. The only thing a positive attitude will do is create an internal feeling of wellbeing so some will do just that while maintaining a realistic and forward thinking plan.
You can complain because roses have thorns or celebrate because thorns have roses, either way they are the same thing so handle with care.

I agree with you, Ed. I don`t know Jack, but his submissions are not what I`ve come to expect on this forum. My gosh, if I want to read this kind of editorial comment, I could find it in the local paper.

 

[Ian]

QUOTE (DianneDachyshyn @ Nov 23 2008, 11:39 AM) I agree with you, Ed. I don`t know Jack, but his submissions are not what I`ve come to expect on this forum. My gosh, if I want to read this kind of editorial comment, I could find it in the local paper.


I agree.

 

[Jack]

QUOTE My gosh, if I want to read this kind of editorial comment, I could find it in the local paper.

You would find it in the local paper, because it`s news-worthy. Exactly why I`m posting it here, because it offers informative value and because it`s relevant to real estate.

 

[DianneDachyshyn]

QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 23 2008, 01:41 PM) You would find it in the local paper, because it`s news-worthy. Exactly why I`m posting it here, because it offers informative value and because it`s relevant to real estate.

Ah! I see the problem here, Jack. You naively and mistakenly believe that whatever you read or hear in the media is newsworthy. I`m surprised that you are a REIN member and that you still cling to that viewpoint, since Don addresses this issue in What`s Behind the Curtain every month at our meetings. Have you not been listening, Jack?

If I ran with every "newsworthy" story that the media spewed out, I would be a basket case, which is what people wil become if they continue to feed on your inflammatory submissions.

If you could rise above the hum of the masses for a moment, you would clearly see the negative impact that the media`s sabre rattling is producing on most of our society, and you would recognize both why they do it and how shallow their arguments are. Fear, especially misguided fear, NEVER produces positive results. I agree with Ed, Jack. Give it a rest.

 

[mcgregok]

QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 21 2008, 01:42 PM) -Energy producers are tentatively looking at boosting exploration in Alberta again after a government shift on royalties, but not by enough to rescue the province from a drilling slowdown in 2009, oil patch companies say.-there was also widespread confusion over just how much the new rates will mean because Alberta Energy published incorrect formulas with misleading royalties for new oil wells. "Alberta is poorly handling its biggest resource," said Max Lof, CFO of junior Breaker Energy. "The changes marginally help producers," Lof said.-energy company stocks nosedived yesterday as oil prices hit three-year lows.

-Meanwhile, long-time oil financier Rick Grafton has this message for Ed Stelmach: The Alberta premier can`t treat the province`s main economic engine as a subsidy to farmers.

-Grafton`s reaction was typical of the oil patch`s negative reviews yesterday of Alberta`s attempt to soften the blow of higher royalties starting in January: It`s too little, too late to reverse the activity drought, now that a collapse in energy prices, tight credit and equity markets, hot shale discoveries in competing jurisdictions with better fiscal terms have piled on to turn Alberta natural gas into a dead beat. "When you take too much, you all of a sudden take away the incentive to spend money," said Grafton, who heads Gibraltar Capital.

-AMJ Petroleum Consultants said the province is missing the mark. "If prices and costs are the primary drivers behind whether to drill or not to drill, then royalty savings become somewhat irrelevant if wells are not being drilled," said AMJ VP Ralph Glass. "A true stimulus must focus on making the economics of oil and gas exploration and production in Alberta more attractive."

-Ross MacDonald, VP of engineering at RMP Energy, one of the junior energy companies Stelmach is targeting with the onetime offer, said it`s not good enough for him to want to spend money.

-Andrew Potter, analyst at UBS Securities Canada, said "we believe that it will have a modest impact on the economics of new wells and is therefore unlikely to drive meaningfully higher spending levels."

(National Post, Globe and Mail 081121)

Jack.

Just have to ask the question. What are you investing in?

 

[REINteam]

Full Article:

Alberta royalties move may spur exploration

Producers consider an increase in drilling, but say new `transitional` royalty rate won`t halt sector slowdown

CALGARY -- Energy producers are tentatively looking at boosting exploration in Alberta again after a government shift on royalties, but not by enough to rescue the province from a drilling slowdown in 2009, oil patch companies say. In an attempt to reduce the impact of plunging commodity prices and tight credit on its energy sector, Alberta introduced a "transitional" royalty rate for new oil and gas wells that would ease the cost burden on explorers, shoring up drilling activity and jobs.

The moves are a step in the right direction for an industry poised for a dramatic pullback in drilling next year, producers said yesterday, responding to the province`s move late Wednesday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...iness/Prairies/

 

[Jack]

QUOTE I`m surprised that you are a REIN member and that you still cling to that viewpoint, since Don addresses this issue in What`s Behind the Curtain every month at our meetings. Have you not been listening, Jack?

Fair enough.

But if you`re going to say these things, can you at least explain to me what exactly is behind the curtain of this article? Seems to me that Ed`s move was moreso a political one than a substantive one to re-encourage investment.

What`s behind the curtain that I`m missing? I`d love to hear!

 

[Stephen1151]

After listening to the Rein advertizing about which towns would really go up in value in the next few years i decided to join. I joined based on really beleiving Rein had the inside scoop...I joined in the spring of 2007 and shortly after bought a house in grande prairie, since then my house value has been declining the rent in that town has been as well. Needless to say i would like to keep beleiving and being positive that my house value and rent will rise. I am trying not to give into the fear that says i should sell.

I understand that its good to be positve and I generally am a positive person but what I am observing has nothing to do with being positive or being negative. Both Jack and the Rein group are both using news papers and articles to show there point of view and as to what they think is behind the curtain for Alberta. I dont think Jack should be put down for his articles...what if there was a huge ressession for alberta and he was right? As much as i dont want there to be a big drop in the market, if he can prove that there will be ...would that not be valuable information if we were warned ahead of time to sell? Thoes of us who are putting him down for being negative just because we have invested in Alberta and would like to see the positive may just be the ones who are applauding the emperors new clothes.

I sincerley hope Alberta will still go up in value and i hope the Rein group is right. I also appreaciate Jacks articles and am not threatened by them. Im just a small time investor right now with one house in Grande prairie hoping this will be seed capital for more investments...I hope Rein is right ...I want to beleive.

 

[DianneDachyshyn]

Stephen, it`s not about "believing", it`s about becoming knowledgeable and about basing one`s decisions upon evidence. No one in REIN has ever said that the real estate market goes straight up non-stop. So the market is down. That`s not shocking news. It`s entirely predictable.

By using words like "hoping", "believing" and being "positive", you demonstrate how unsophisticated you are. We don`t hope or believe our way to prosperity or get there by thinking happy thoughts. We take action based on knowledge. Where do we get the knowledge? By learning and investigating. Where do we learn? At REIN meetings.

We joined REIN at exactly the same time you did, in April, 2007, and we bought in the same town, only we didn`t buy one house, we bought three! That`s where the similarity ends, however. We are delighted with our three properties. We have tenants and leases and good cashflow. Our rent has remained the same. Does it bother us that the property values are now lower than when we bought? Not in the least, because we do not plan to sell any time soon. We didn`t plan to buy and flip our properties. We went into this with our eyes wide open. We knew that we would be buying and holding for at least five years. REIN helped us to buy quality properties for good prices. REIN helped us to place good tenants in our properties and to find good property management.

It`s a shame that you are bitter now because the sky is no longer rosy. If you prefer Jack`s gloomy picture to REIN`s then I guess you haven`t learned very much in the past 18 months. You would likely be better off to sell your one property and find a secure job somewhere. It doesn`t sound as if real estate investing is either yours or Jack`s cup of tea.

 

[ZanderRobertson]

i think this has gone far enough. now not only is the person who posts alternative viewpoints considered "negative", but anyone who even slightly deviates from the norm is being called names (i.e., unsophisticated)



when i first joined REIN a former member told me they thought it was cultish because of the way the members behaved. i strongly disagreed with this person then, and I strongly disagree with them now, but having witnessed some of the name calling on these posts, i can now see what that person meant.




QUOTE (DianneDachyshyn @ Nov 24 2008, 07:29 PM)
Stephen, it's not about "believing", it's about becoming knowledgeable and about basing one's decisions upon evidence. No one in REIN has ever said that the real estate market goes straight up non-stop. So the market is down. That's not shocking news. It's entirely predictable.



By using words like "hoping", "believing" and being "positive", you demonstrate how unsophisticated you are. We don't hope or believe our way to prosperity or get there by thinking happy thoughts. We take action based on knowledge. Where do we get the knowledge? By learning and investigating. Where do we learn? At REIN meetings.



We joined REIN at exactly the same time you did, in April, 2007, and we bought in the same town, only we didn't buy one house, we bought three! That's where the similarity ends, however. We are delighted with our three properties. We have tenants and leases and good cashflow. Our rent has remained the same. Does it bother us that the property values are now lower than when we bought? Not in the least, because we do not plan to sell any time soon. We didn't plan to buy and flip our properties. We went into this with our eyes wide open. We knew that we would be buying and holding for at least five years. REIN helped us to buy quality properties for good prices. REIN helped us to place good tenants in our properties and to find good property management.



It's a shame that you are bitter now because the sky is no longer rosy. If you prefer Jack's gloomy picture to REIN's then I guess you haven't learned very much in the past 18 months. You would likely be better off to sell your one property and find a secure job somewhere. It doesn't sound as if real estate investing is either yours or Jack's cup of tea.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (ZanderRobertson @ Nov 24 2008, 08:02 PM) i think this has gone far enough. now not only is the person who posts alternative viewpoints considered "negative", but anyone who even slightly deviates from the norm is being called names (i.e., unsophisticated)
when i first joined REIN a former member told me they thought it was cultish because of the way the members behaved. i strongly disagreed with this person then, and I strongly disagree with them now, but having witnessed some of the name calling on these posts, i can now see what that person meant.
I don`t see name calling here .. I see a healthy educated discussion !

KEEP IT UP .. Jack and all others !!!

One of the many opportunities we have here in the so called "1st world" (as opposed to Russia or China or N-Korea or Zimbabwe, say) is a free press / freedom of expression !

I may not agree with a view .. but I certainly agree with your right to post a view !! And it may cause me to think and question my view of "reality" !!!!

 

[ZanderRobertson]

couldn't agree more... everyone ought to post their own views, it's the only way to have a great conversation, and think differently. BUT, calling someone "unsophisticated" or "negative" is name calling for sure!






QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Nov 24 2008, 08:24 PM)
I don't see name calling here .. I see a healthy educated discussion !



KEEP IT UP .. Jack and all others !!!



One of the many opportunities we have here in the so called "1st world" (as opposed to Russia or China or N-Korea or Zimbabwe, say) is a free press / freedom of expression !



I may not agree with a view .. but I certainly agree with your right to post a view !! And it may cause me to think and question my view of "reality" !!!!

 

[DianneDachyshyn]

QUOTE (ZanderRobertson @ Nov 24 2008, 08:34 PM) couldn`t agree more... everyone ought to post their own views, it`s the only way to have a great conversation, and think differently. BUT, calling someone "unsophisticated" or "negative" is name calling for sure!

I apologize for offending. I didn`t plan to name call, so I guess the unsophisticated label was a bit rough. I didn`t call anyone negative. I said that the message is negative, and I can`t see that it is helping anyone. Enough said. I think these threads are getting way too much attention as it is.